1. Ukuqonda iZalathi zokuguquguquka
Iimpawu zokuguquguquka, inxalenye ebalulekileyo yokurhweba, yimilinganiselo yamanani echaza utshintsho lwexabiso kwimarike yezemali. Trader basebenzisa ezi zalathisi ukuqonda iintsingiselo zemarike kunye nokwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi. Ingcamango yokuguquguquka idla ngokungaqondwa kakuhle, kodwa ukubaluleka kwayo akunakubaxwa. Liqondo lokwahluka koluhlu lwexabiso lokurhweba ngokuhamba kwexesha, ngokwesiqhelo lilinganiswa ngokutenxa okusemgangathweni kwembuyekezo ye-logarithmic.
Ukuguquguquka kwembali, ekwabizwa ngokuba kukuguquguquka kwamanani, sesinye sezikhombisi. Ilinganisa utshintsho lwe-asethi esisiseko ekuhambeni kwexesha kwaye ibonelela ngomlinganiselo ohambelanayo ingozi. Traders rhoqo sebenzisa ukuguquguquka kwembali ukuqikelela ukuguquguquka kwexesha elizayo, kuyenza ibe sisixhobo esiphambili kwi-arsenal yabo.
Ukuguquguquka okuchazwayo, kwelinye icala, umlinganiselo oguqukayo wokuguquguquka oguqukayo kunye novakalelo lwemarike. Ithatyathwe kwixabiso lemarike lemarike traded i-derivative (ngokukodwa, ukhetho). Ngokungafaniyo nokuguquguquka kwembali, ukuguquguquka okuchazwayo akubonakalisi utshintsho oludlulileyo, kodwa ingqikelelo yokuguquguquka kwexesha elizayo.
The I-Volatility Index (VIX) sesinye isalathisi esidumileyo sokuguquguquka. Idla ngokubizwa ngokuba 'yigeyiji yoloyiko', ilinganisa umngcipheko weemarike, uloyiko kunye noxinzelelo phambi kokuba zibonakale kwiimarike ezisisiseko.
Umndilili woloRhoqo (ATR) sisalathisi sokuguquguquka esibonisa iqondo lokuguquguquka kwexabiso. Ayisosalathiso sesalathiso, kunoko ibonelela ngenqanaba lokuguquguquka kwexabiso.
Bollinger uZintya, esinye isilathisi sokuguquguquka esisetyenziswa ngokubanzi, siqulathe ibhendi ephakathi enamaqela amabini angaphandle. Iibhanti zangaphandle zihlala zisetelwe ukuphambuka okuqhelekileyo kwe-2 ngaphezulu nangaphantsi kwebhanti ephakathi. Iibhendi zeBollinger zandisa kwaye zikhontrakthi kunye nokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso.
Ukuqonda ezi zalathi zokuguquguquka kunye nendlela yokuzisebenzisa ngokufanelekileyo kunokuphucula kakhulu isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba. Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba akukho salathisi sinobudenge. Kufuneka zisetyenziswe ngokubambisana nezinye izixhobo kunye nezicwangciso zokufumana iziphumo ezilungileyo.
1.1. Inkcazo yeZalathi zokuguquguquka
Iimpawu zokuguquguquka zizixhobo ezibalulekileyo kwi-arsenal yazo zonke trader. Badlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuvezeni ukuziphatha kwexabiso lokhuseleko, ngaloo ndlela bevumela trader ukwenza izigqibo ezizizo. Ngokusisiseko, ezi zalathisi zibonelela ngomlinganiselo wezinga apho ixabiso lokhuseleko linyuka okanye liyancipha kwiseti yeembuyekezo. Ukunyanzelisa yeyona nto ibalulekileyo kurhwebo, njengoko ilinganisa inqanaba lomngcipheko obandakanyekayo.
Ukuphakama kokuguquguquka, kokukhona umngcipheko uphezulu, kwaye ngenxa yoko, amandla embuyekezo ebalulekileyo - okanye ilahleko. Ngokuchaseneyo, ukuguquguquka okuphantsi kudla ngokubonisa umngcipheko omncinci, kodwa kunye nemarike enokuthi ibe nomvuzo omncinci. Iimpawu zokuguquguquka, ngoko ke, ziyinxalenye yezicwangciso zokulawula umngcipheko.
Kukho iintlobo ezininzi zezalathi zokuguquguquka, nganye inendlela yayo eyahlukileyo kunye nembono. Ezi ziquka i Umyinge woLungiso lwenyani (ATR), i Bollinger Nyanda, kwaye i Relative Index Ukomelela (RSI). Ngasinye kwezi zalathisi sibonelela ngeembono ezahlukeneyo okungazinzi kweemalike, evumayo traders ukulungisa izicwangciso zabo kwiimeko zemarike zangoku.
Ngokomzekelo, i-ATR, ibala umndilili wokurhweba phakathi kwexesha elithile, inika umlinganiselo wokuguquguquka okupheleleyo. I-Bollinger Bands, ngakolunye uhlangothi, iceba iindlela ezimbini zokuphambuka okusemgangathweni kude ne-a umlinganiselo olula wokuhamba, ngaloo ndlela ibonisa izinga lokuguquguquka ngokumalunga nexabiso eliphakathi. Ekugqibeleni, i-RSI ilinganisa isantya kunye nokutshintsha kweentshukumo zexabiso, ukubonelela ngombono osekelwe kwisantya sokuguquguquka.
ezi iimpawu zokuguquguquka inokusetyenziswa ngokuzimeleyo okanye ngokubambisana nezinye izikhombisi, ukubonelela traders ngokuqonda okubanzi kokuguquguquka kwemarike. Ngokusebenzisa ezi zixhobo, tradeI-R ingakwazi ukuhamba ngokufanelekileyo kumanzi ahlala exokozela kwiimarike zezimali, ukwandisa amandla abo okwenza inzuzo ngelixa unciphisa umngcipheko.
1.2. Iintlobo zokuguquguquka
Kwihlabathi eliguquguqukayo lorhwebo, ukuqonda ukuguquguquka kufana nokulawula isantya semarike. Kukho iintlobo ezimbini eziphambili zokuguquguquka oku tradeKufuneka uqhelane ne: Ukuguquguquka ngokwembali (HV) kwaye Ukuguquguquka okuchazwayo (IV).
Ukuguquguquka kwembali, njengoko igama libonisa, ngumlinganiselo wokuguquguquka kweemarike kwixesha elichaziweyo kwixesha elidlulileyo. Ibalwa ngokumisela ukutenxa komgangatho wonyaka wotshintsho lwexabiso lempahla yemihla ngemihla. I-HV ibonelela ngamagqabantshintshi ngokuba ixabiso lokhuseleko litenxe kangakanani na kwi-avareji yexabiso layo, ukunika traders ingqiqo yoluhlu lwamaxabiso esitokhwe. Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba ukusebenza kwangaphambili akuqinisekisi iziphumo zexesha elizayo, ngoko ke i-HV kufuneka isetyenziswe kunye nezinye izikhombisi zembono epheleleyo yemarike.
Kwelinye icala, Ukuguquguquka okuchazwayo yisimethrikhi ejonge phambili ebonisa ulindelo lwemarike lokuguquguquka kwekamva lokhuseleko. I-IV ivela kwixabiso lokukhetha kwaye ibonisa ukuba imarike iqikelela ntoni malunga nokuhamba okunokwenzeka kwesitoko. Ngokungafaniyo ne-HV, i-IV ayisekelwanga kwidatha yembali; endaweni yoko, ilinganisa uvakalelo lwemarike kwaye ilindele ukuguquka kwamaxabiso kwixesha elizayo. Sisixhobo esibalulekileyo kwiinketho traders, ngakumbi xa ucwangcisa izicwangciso malunga nezibhengezo zemivuzo okanye eminye imisitho ebalulekileyo.
Phakathi kwezi ntlobo zimbini zokuguquguquka, tradeI-rs inokufumana ukuqonda okubanzi kokutshintsha kweemarike. Ngokusebenzisa ulwazi oluvela kuzo zombini i-HV kunye ne-IV, banokwenza izigqibo ezizizo kwaye baziphucule izicwangciso zorhwebo.
2. Izalathisi eziphezulu zokuguquguquka kwe Traders
Xa uhamba kwiilwandle ezinesiphithiphithi sorhwebo lwemarike, i-adept trader uyazi ukuba ukuqonda ukuguquguquka ngundoqo wokuhlala udada ngaphezulu. Phakathi kwezigidigidi zezixhobo ezikhoyo, ezimbini zigqamile njengezalathisi eziphezulu zokuguquguquka: i Bollinger Nyanda kwaye i Umyinge woLungiso lwenyani (ATR).
The Bollinger Nyanda isalathisi esiguqukayo esenza ibhendi yemigca emithathu-umgca ophakathi ube yinto elula umlinganiselo ohambayo (SMA) kunye nemigca yangaphandle ibe yimigca yokutenxa eqhelekileyo. Ukutolikwa okusisiseko kweeBollinger Bands kukuba ixabiso lihlala lihlala ngaphakathi kweebhendi eziphezulu nangaphantsi. Utshintsho lwamaxabiso olubukhali lukholisa ukwenzeka emva kokuba iibhendi ziqinisiwe, njengoko ukuguquguquka kuncipha. Xa amaxabiso ehamba ngaphandle kweebhendi, ukuqhubela phambili kwendlela yangoku kuthethwa.
The Umyinge woLungiso lwenyani (ATR), Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umlinganiselo wokuguquguquka owenziwe nguWelles Wilder kwincwadi yakhe, "IiNgcaciso eziNtsha kwiiNkqubo zoRhwebo lobuGcisa". Isalathisi soluhlu oluyinyani lusona sikhulu kwezi zilandelayo: ikhoyo ngoku iphezulu ngaphantsi kwe-low yangoku, ixabiso elipheleleyo langoku liphezulu lingaphantsi kokuvalwa kwangaphambili, kunye nexabiso elipheleleyo le-low yangoku ephantsi ngaphantsi kokuvalwa kwangaphambili. I-ATR yi-avareji ehambayo yoluhlu lwenyani.
Zombini ezi zalathi zibonelela ngengqiqo exabisekileyo malunga nokuguquguquka kweemarike, kodwa kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba azixeli kwangaphambili icala, kuphela ukuguquguquka. Zingasetyenziswa ngokubambisana nezinye izikhombisi zokudala isicwangciso sorhwebo esomeleleyo. Nokuba ungumqali tradeUkuqala nje okanye uchwepheshe onamava ukulungisa indlela yakho, ukuqonda kunye nokusebenzisa ezi zalathisi zokuguquguquka ziphezulu kunokutshintsha umdlalo kuhambo lwakho lokurhweba.
2.1. Umndilili woLuhlu lweNyaniso (ATR)
Iphuhliswe nguJ. Welles Wilder, i Umyinge woLungiso lwenyani (ATR) yi uhlalutyo yobugcisa isalathisi esilinganisa ukuguquguquka kweemarike ngokubola lonke uluhlu lwexabiso le-asethi ngelo xesha. Ngokukodwa, i-ATR ngumlinganiselo wokuguquguquka owaziswa yidatha yemarike equka i-asethi ephezulu, ephantsi, kunye nevaliweyo yosuku.
I-ATR ibalwa ngokuthatha ubuninzi bala manyathelo mathathu alandelayo: i-high high yangoku ikhupha i-low current; ixabiso eligqibeleleyo lophezulu lwangoku thabatha ukuvala kwangaphambili; kunye nexabiso eligqibeleleyo lesezantsi langoku thabatha ukuvala kwangaphambili. Le ndlela yokubala ibamba ukuguquguquka ukusuka ikhefu kwaye umda uhamba kwimarike.
I-ATR ayiboneleli ngecala lolwalathiso okanye iqikelele ulwalathiso lwexabiso elizayo, endaweni yoko, icacisa ngokulula iqondo lokuguquguquka kwexabiso. Ukusuka kumbono wokurhweba, amaxabiso aphezulu e-ATR abonisa ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kwaye anokuba luphawu lokuthengisa okanye ukuphakuzela ukuthenga. Amaxabiso e-ATR aphantsi, kwelinye icala, amele ukuguquguquka okuphantsi kwaye angabonisa ukungaqiniseki komtyali-mali okanye ukuhlanganiswa kweemarike.
Traders ihlala isebenzisa i-ATR ukubala ngesandla apho kumiselwa khona iindawo zokungena kunye neendawo zokuphuma trades. Umzekelo, a trader isenokukhetha ukungena ku trade ukuba ixabiso lihamba ngaphezu kwe-1 ATR ngaphezu kokuvala kwangaphambili, kwaye inokuseta ukuyeka ukulahleka kwi-1 ATR ngaphantsi kwexabiso lokungena.
The Umyinge woLungiso lwenyani (ATR) sisixhobo esiluncedo traders ukuqonda ngokupheleleyo imeko yemarike apho barhweba khona. Ngokubonelela ngomlinganiselo ochanekileyo wokuguquguquka, kwenza ukuba traders ukwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi ngakumbi malunga nezicwangciso zabo zorhwebo.
2.2. IiBollinger Bands
Kwihlabathi lorhwebo, Bollinger Nyanda yima njengebhakana yesalathiso sokuguquguquka. Iphuhliswe yintsomi trader John Bollinger, esi sixhobo sohlalutyo lobugcisa sithandwa phakathi traders ngobulula bayo kodwa ukusebenza okumangalisayo. Ingcamango emva kweBollinger Bands iqondile. Iqukethe i-avareji elula ehambayo (i-SMA) apho imigca emibini, amabhanti aphezulu nangaphantsi, atsalwa. La mabhanti acwangciswe ngokunxaxhile kwemigangatho emibini kude ne-SMA.
The ubuhle Bollinger Bands ilele ekukwazi kwabo ukuziqhelanisa nokutshintsha kweemeko zemarike. Xa imarike izolile, iikhontrakthi zebhanti, zibonisa ixesha lokuguquguquka okuphantsi. Ngokwahlukileyo, xa imarike iguquguqukayo, iibhendi zanda, zipeyinta umfanekiso wokuguquguquka okuphezulu. Olu hlobo oluguquguqukayo lwe-Bollinger Bands lubenza babe sisixhobo esisebenza kakhulu, esisebenza kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo zemarike.
Traders sebenzisa iibhendi zeBollinger ngeendlela ezininzi. Esinye isicwangciso esithandwayo yi 'Bollinger Bounce'. Esi sicwangciso sisekelwe kumgaqo wokuba ixabiso livame ukubuyela phakathi kweebhendi. Ngoko ke, xa ixabiso lichukumisa ibhendi ephezulu, traders icinga ukuba ithengwe kakhulu kwaye ilindele ukuba ibuyele kwintsingiselo. Ngokufanayo, xa ixabiso lithinta ibhendi ephantsi, ithathwa njenge-oversold, kwaye i-bounce ibuyele kwi-middle band ilindeleke.
Esinye isicwangciso esaziwayo yi 'I-Bollinger Squeeze'. Esi sicwangciso-qhinga sisebenza kumaxesha apho iibhendi zisondelelene, zibonisa ukuguquguquka okuphantsi. Ukucudisa kuhlala kulandelwa yintshukumo yexabiso elibalulekileyo, okanye ukuqhawuka. Traders jonga ezi zicudiweyo uze ubeke trades isekelwe kwicala lokuqhambuka.
Nangona kunjalo, njengaso nasiphi na esinye isixhobo sokurhweba, iibhendi zeBollinger azinakusilela. Kufuneka zisetyenziswe ngokubambisana nezinye izikhombisi kunye neendlela zokuhlalutya ukwandisa ukusebenza kwazo. Nangona kunjalo, ngokukwazi kwabo ukuchonga amaxesha okuguquguquka okuphezulu kunye nokuphantsi kunye nokubonelela ngamanqaku okungena kunye nokuphuma, iiBollinger Bands ziye zafumana indawo yazo kwibhokisi yezixhobo zabaninzi abaphumeleleyo. traders.
2.3. Isalathiso Samandla Ahlobene (RSI)
Phakathi kwe-pantheon yezibonakaliso zokuguquguquka, i-Relative Strength Index (RSI) imele iphakamileyo kunye nekhono layo elilodwa lokulinganisa isantya kunye nokutshintsha kweentshukumo zexabiso. Idalwe nguJ. Welles Wilder, i-RSI i ngesantya oscillator ukuba uluhlu phakathi 0 kunye 100, ukubonelela traders kunye neempawu ezinokuthi zibekho okanye iimeko ezithengiswe ngokugqithisileyo kwimarike.
I-RSI ibalwa kusetyenziswa ifomula: RSI = 100 β (100 / (1 + RS)), apho i-RS (Relative Strength) iyinzuzo engumndilili eyahlulwe ngelahleko engumndilili kwixesha elichaziweyo. Ngokwesiko, ixesha leentsuku ze-14 lisetyenziselwa ukubala, kodwa oku kunokulungiswa ukuze kuhambelane neendlela ezahlukeneyo zokurhweba.
Unga kanjani traders ukusebenzisa i RSI? Xa i-RSI idlula i-70, ibonisa ukuba ukhuseleko lunokuthi luthengwe ngokugqithisileyo kwaye lunokuba ngenxa yokulungiswa kwexabiso. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-RSI engaphantsi kwe-30 ithetha ukuba isibambiso sinokuthengiswa ngokugqithisileyo, oko kubonisa ithuba lokuthenga. Abanye traders kwakhona khangela 'iRSI divergence' - xa ixabiso lokhuseleko lenza ukuphakama okanye ukuhla okutsha, kodwa i-RSI iyasilela ukwenza oko. Oku kwantlukwano kunokuba ngumqondiso onamandla wokuguqulwa kwemarike okunokwenzeka.
Ehlabathini lokuguquguquka, i-RSI inikezela ngembono ekhethekileyo. Ayilandeli nje utshintsho lwamaxabiso, kodwa isantya kunye nobukhulu bezi nguqu. Oku kuyenza ibe sisixhobo esixabisekileyo trader ijonge ukulinganisa uvakalelo lwemarike nokuchonga amathuba orhwebo anokubakho kwiimarike eziguquguqukayo.
Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba, njengazo zonke izikhombisi, i-RSI ayinakusilela kwaye kufuneka isetyenziswe kunye nezinye izixhobo kunye neendlela zokuhlalutya. Kukwabalulekile ukuqonda ukuba i-RSI isebenza ngakumbi kwiimarike ezihamba phambili, ngokuchaseneyo nezahlulo.
I-RSI sisalathisi esinamandla sokuguquguquka, kodwa ayisiyobhola yekristale. Sisixhobo esinokuthi, xa sisetyenziswe ngokuchanekileyo, sinokunika ulwazi oluxabisekileyo kutshintsho lwemarike kunye noncedo trader benza izigqibo ezinolwazi ngakumbi.
2.4. Isalathiso sokuguquguquka (VIX)
Xa kuziwa ekulinganiseni ukuguquguquka kweemarike, i Isalathiso seVolatility Index (VIX) idla ngokunconywa njenge igolide umgangatho. Iphuhliswe yiChicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), esi sixhobo esinamandla sinikezela nge-real-time snapshot yeemvakalelo zomtyali-mali kunye nokulindela kweemarike. I-VIX, ehlala ibizwa ngokuba 'yisalathisi soloyiko', ilinganisa ixhala lemarike ngokubala ukuguquguquka okuchazwayo kwe-S&P 500 iinketho zesalathiso.
Ngokwenene, i-VIX ibonisa ukuqikelelwa kwemarike ye-30-day volatility future. Ixabiso eliphezulu le-VIX libonisa ukulindela ukuguquguquka okuphezulu, okuhlala kuhambelana nokungaqiniseki kweemarike kunye nokwesaba, ngelixa i-VIX ephantsi ibonisa imarike ezolileyo kunye nokuguquguquka okuphantsi. Kuyaphawuleka ukuba i-VIX ithetha-ukubuyisela umva, oku kuthetha ukuba ithande ukubuyela emva kumndilili wayo wexesha elide ngokuhamba kwexesha.
Ukuqonda iVIX inokuba ngumdlalo wokutshintsha traders. Ibonelela ngezimvo ezixabisekileyo kwiinguqu ezinokubakho kwimarike, inceda traders ukulungisa izicwangciso zabo ngokufanelekileyo. Ngokomzekelo, i-spike ngokukhawuleza kwi-VIX ingaba ngumqondiso wokunciphisa umngcipheko, ngelixa i-VIX ephantsi inokucebisa ithuba lokuthatha ingozi enkulu.
Nangona kunjalo, njengaso nasiphi na isalathisi, i-VIX ayinakufezeka kwaye akufanele isetyenziswe yodwa. Kubalulekile ukuba dibanisa i-VIX kunye nezinye izikhombisi kunye nohlalutyo lwemarike ukwenza izigqibo zokurhweba ezinolwazi. Kungakhathaliseki ukuba, i-VIX ihlala isisixhobo esiyimfuneko kwi trader's kit, enikezela ngembono eyodwa malunga nokuguquguquka kweemarike.
Khumbula, isitshixo sorhwebo oluyimpumelelo alukho nje ekuqondeni imeko yangoku yemarike, kodwa nasekulindeleni iintshukumo zayo zexesha elizayo. Kwaye kulapho i-VIX ingena khona-ifestile kumphefumlo wemarike, ityhila uloyiko lwayo olunzulu kunye nethemba.
3. Ukukhetha isalathisi esiLungileyo sokuguquguquka
Ukuhamba kumanzi anqabileyo ehlabathi lokurhweba kufuna izixhobo ezifanelekileyo. Esinye sezixhobo eziyimfuneko sisalathisi sokuguquguquka. Xa kuziwa ekukhetheni okulungileyo, ukuqwalaselwa kwesicwangciso sakho sokurhweba kunye neemeko zemarike yeyona nto ibalulekileyo.
Bollinger Nyanda, umzekelo, lukhetho oludumileyo phakathi traders. Ezi bhanti zibanzi kwaye zincinci ngokusekelwe ekuguquguqukeni kweemarike, ukubonelela ngemibono ephambili kumanqanaba amaxabiso anokwenzeka. Ziluncedo ngokukhethekileyo kwimarike eyahlukeneyo, ukunceda traders ukuchonga iindawo ezinokubakho zokuthenga nokuthengisa.
Esinye isalathisi esinamandla sokuguquguquka yi Umyinge woLungiso lwenyani (ATR). Ngokungafaniyo neebhendi zeBollinger, i-ATR ayisona isalathisi. Ilinganisa nje iqondo lokuguquguquka kwexabiso. Iluncedo kakhulu ekuseteni iiodolo zelahleko kwaye ithandwa emini traders ngokukwazi kwayo ukunika umfanekiso woluhlu lwexabiso lemihla ngemihla.
Isalathiso seVolatility Index (VIX) sesinye isixhobo esinamandla, esisoloko sibizwa ngokuba 'yigeyiji yoloyiko'. Esi salathisi silinganisa ulindelo lwemarike lweentsuku ezingama-30 ezijonge phambili. Ngokwenene, ibonelela ngomlinganiselo womngcipheko weemarike kunye neemvakalelo zomtyali-mali. Sisixhobo esihle kakhulu kubantu abachaseneyo traders eziphumelela ekuyeni ngokuchasene nomhlambi.
The Isalathiso sokuguquguquka okuhambelanayo (RVI) sisalathisi sokuguquguquka esilinganisa isalathiso sokuguquguquka. Isebenzisa ukutenxa okusemgangathweni kotshintsho lwexabiso ekubaleni kwayo, iyenza ibe ngumlinganiselo olungileyo wamandla entsingiselo ekhoyo yemarike.
Ngasinye sezi zalathisi sinamandla kunye nobuthathaka, kwaye ukhetho luxhomekeke kwisitayela sakho sokurhweba kunye nesicwangciso. Ukuqonda ii-nuances zezi zalathi inokunyusa kakhulu amandla akho okurhweba, ikuncede wenze izigqibo ezinolwazi kwaye unciphise umngcipheko. Khumbula, ukuguquguquka akukho nje malunga nomngcipheko, kodwa malunga namathuba. Ngesalathiso esifanelekileyo sokuguquguquka, unokuguqula ukungaqiniseki kweemarike kube yinzuzo trades.
3.1. Izinto Emaziqwalaselwe
Ukuqonda ukuguquguquka ngumba obalulekileyo worhwebo notyalo-mali. Ngumlinganiselo weqondo lokwahluka kuluhlu lwamaxabiso orhwebo ngokuhamba kwexesha. Xa ukhetha izikhombisi zokuguquguquka, kukho izinto ezininzi ezibalulekileyo ekufuneka uziqwalasele.
Kuqala, i uhlobo lwemarike urhweba ngayo ibalulekile. Nokuba kunjalo forex, iimpahla, okanye esitokisini, imarike nganye ineempawu zayo ezizodwa kunye neepatheni zokuguquguquka. Ke ngoko, isalathisi sokuguquguquka esisebenza ngcono kwimakethi enye sisenokungasebenzi kwenye.
Isicwangciso sokurhweba yenye into ebalulekileyo. Ezinye izicwangciso ziphumelela ngokuguquguquka okuphezulu, ngelixa ezinye zifuna iimeko ezizinzileyo. Umzekelo, ukuba unosuku trader, ungakhetha isalathisi esinokusabela ngokukhawuleza kwiintshukumo zamaxabiso ngesiquphe. Kwelinye icala, ukuba ungumtyali-mali wexesha elide, ungakhetha isalathiso esilungisa ukuguquguquka kwexesha elifutshane ukuveza indlela ebanzi.
Ukunyamezela umngcipheko womntu ikwadlala indima. Ukuba awukho umngcipheko, ungakhetha isalathisi esikunceda ukuba uphephe amaxesha aguqukayo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuba ukhululekile ngomngcipheko, unokufuna ukuguquguquka ukuze wenze imali ekutshintsheni kwamaxabiso.
Gqi beleni, i ukuntsonkotha nokutolika zesalathisi zibalulekile. Ezinye izalathisi zokuguquguquka zilula ukuziqonda nokusetyenziswa, ngelixa ezinye zifuna ukuqonda okunzulu kweengqikelelo zamanani. Ukhetho lwakho luya kuxhomekeka kwinqanaba lobuchule bakho kunye nexesha ozimisele ukutyala kulo nokufunda nohlalutyo.
Khumbula, akukho salathisi sokuguquka sinokunika umfanekiso opheleleyo. Kudla ngokuba luncedo ukusebenzisa indibaniselwano yezalathisi ukufumana umbono opheleleyo wokuguquguquka kweemarike. Linga ngezalathisi ezahlukeneyo kunye noseto, kwaye uhlengahlengise indlela yakho ngokusekwe kuqwalaselo lwakho kunye namava.
3.2. Ukudibanisa izalathisi ze-Volatility
Ukubamba ubugcisa bokudibanisa izikhombisi zokuguquguquka inokuphucula kakhulu isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba. Sisakhono esifuna ukuqonda okuthe kratya kotshintsho lwemalike kunye nokuvuma ukuphengulula kubuntsonkotha bohlalutyo lwemali.
Ngokomzekelo, khawucinge nge Bollinger Nyanda kwaye Umyinge woLungiso lwenyani (ATR). Ezi zalathisi zibini zibonelela ngeembono ezizodwa malunga nokuguquguquka kweemarike. Iibhendi zeBollinger zigxininisa amanqanaba okutenxa okusemgangathweni ukusuka kumyinge ohambahambayo, ukubonelela ngokubonakaliswa okubonakalayo kwamaxesha aphezulu kunye naphantsi. Kwelinye icala, i-ATR ilinganisa ukuguquguquka kweemarike ngokubala uluhlu phakathi kwamaxabiso aphezulu naphantsi kangangexesha elithile.
Kodwa kwenzeka ntoni xa thina dibanisa ezi zalathi zibini? Isiphumo sisixhobo esinamandla esinika umbono obanzi wokuguquguquka kweemarike. Le fusion ivumela traders ukuchonga ukuqhambuka okunokwenzeka okanye ukuguqulwa ngokukhomba amaxesha okunyuka okuguquguqukayo, njengoko kuboniswe ngokwandisa i-Bollinger Bands kunye nokunyuka kwe-ATR.
Ngaphezu koko, ukudibanisa i Isalathiso sokuguquguquka okuhambelanayo (RVI) kulo mxube ungaphucula ngakumbi uhlalutyo lwakho lokuguquguquka. I-RVI, elinganisa ulwalathiso lwe-volatility, inokunceda ukuqinisekisa iimpawu ezivela kwii-Bollinger Bands kunye ne-ATR. Umzekelo, ixabiso eliphezulu le-RVI elidityaniswe nokwandisa i-Bollinger Bands kunye nokunyuka kwe-ATR kunokubonisa intshukumo eyomeleleyo yexabiso eliphezulu.
Nangona kunjalo, khumbula ukuba akukho salathisi singenakusilela. Zonke izikhombisi kufuneka zisetyenziswe ngokubambisana nezinye izixhobo zokuhlalutya iimarike kunye nobuchule. Ukudibanisa izibonakaliso zokuguquguquka akusiyo ibhulethi yomlingo, kodwa ukongeza okuxabisekileyo kwisicwangciso sokurhweba esipheleleyo.
