1. Ukuqonda iziseko ze-MACD
Xa uphonononga kwihlabathi lorhwebo, ukuqonda izikhombisi zobugcisa ezifana ne MACD (avareji Ukuhambisa Convergence Divergence) sisiseko. Esi sixhobo, esaphuhliswa nguGerald Appel ekupheleni kweminyaka yoo-1970, siyindlela elandelayo isalathisi somzuzu ebonisa ubudlelwane phakathi kwee-avareji ezimbini ezihambayo zexabiso lokhuseleko.
I-MACD inamacandelo amathathu: umgca we-MACD, umgca wesignali, kunye ne-histogram ye-MACD. I Umgca weMACD ngumahluko phakathi kwe-EMA yeentsuku ezili-12 (UkuPhakamisa Umyinge) kunye ne-EMA yeentsuku ezingama-26. I umgca wesignali, ngokuqhelekileyo i-EMA ye-9 yeentsuku zomgca we-MACD, yenza njengesixhobo sokuthenga nokuthengisa iimpawu. Ekugqibeleni, i MACD histogram imele umahluko phakathi komgca we-MACD kunye nomgca wesignali, unikezela ukubonakaliswa okubonakalayo kwesantya sokutshintsha kwexabiso.
Ukuqonda indlela ezi zinto zisebenzisana ngayo ngundoqo ekutolikeni kwe-MACD. Xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezulu komgca wesignali, ngokuqhelekileyo ibonisa i-bullish trend, iphakamisa ukuba inokuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga. Ngokwahlukileyo, ukuba umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, ubonisa i-bearish trend, mhlawumbi ukubonakalisa ixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthengisa.
I-MACD nayo iyanceda trader ichonga iindawo ezinokuthi zijikwe. A ukuhlukana kwe-bullish kwenzeka xa i-MACD yenza ii-lows ezimbini ezinyukayo ezihambelana nokuhla okuphantsi kwexabiso. Oku kungabonisa ukuguqulwa kwamaxabiso okunokwenzeka. A ukuhlukana komoya kwenzeka xa i-MACD yenza ii-highs ezimbini eziwayo ezihambelana nokunyuka okuphezulu kwexabiso, okunokuthi kubonise ukuhla kwexabiso eliphantsi.
Ngelixa i-MACD sisixhobo esinamandla, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba akukho salathisi singenangqondo. Njalo uyisebenzise ngokubambisana nezinye izixhobo kwaye uhlalutye ukwenza izigqibo zokurhweba ezinolwazi. Ukufumana ulwazi olunzulu oluthe kratya kwi-MACD, qwalasela izibonelelo ezifana 'nohlalutyo lobuchwephesha kwiiMarike zeMali' nguJohn J. Murphy.
1.1. Yintoni i-Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)?
The Ukuhambisa umndilili wokuDibana kokuDibana (MACD) sisalathiso sesantya esilandela umkhondo esityhila unxulumano phakathi kwemiyinge emibini ehambayo yexabiso lokhuseleko. I-MACD ibalwa ngokukhupha i-26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ukusuka kwi-EMA ye-12. Isiphumo seso sibalo ngumgca we-MACD. I-EMA yeentsuku ezisithoba ze-MACD, ebizwa ngokuthi "umgca wesignali," icwangciswe phezulu kumgca we-MACD, onokusebenza njengesixhobo sokuthenga nokuthengisa iimpawu.
TradeI-rs inokuthenga ukhuseleko xa i-MACD iwela ngaphezu komgca wayo wesignali kwaye ithengise ukhuseleko xa i-MACD iwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali. Izalathisi ze-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) zinokutolikwa ngeendlela ezininzi, kodwa iindlela eziqhelekileyo zi-crossovers, divergences, kunye nokunyuka ngokukhawuleza / ukuwa.
Ngokomzekelo, xa i-MACD iwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, isignali ye-bearish, ebonisa ukuba ingaba lixesha lokuthengisa. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, xa i-MACD iphakama ngaphezu komgca wesignali, isalathisi sinika isignali ye-bullish, ebonisa ukuba ixabiso le-asethi linokuthi lifumane ukunyuka. Abanye traders linda umnqamlezo oqinisekisiweyo ngaphezulu komgca wesignali ngaphambi kokungena kwindawo yokuphepha βukukhutshwaβ okanye ukungena kwindawo kwangoko kakhulu.
Ukuchithwa phakathi kwe-MACD kunye nesenzo sexabiso ngumqondiso onamandla xa uqinisekisa iimpawu ze-crossover. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba ixabiso le-MACD liyenyuka ngokuthe ngcembe, kodwa ixabiso lihla ngokuthe ngcembe, oku kunokubonisa indlela ezayo ye-bullish.
Ekugqibeleni, ukunyuka okukhawulezayo (okanye ukuwa) kwi-MACD kunokubonisa ukuthengwa ngokugqithiseleyo (okanye ukugqithisa), ukubonelela ngomqondiso onokuthi ujonge ukulungiswa kwexabiso okanye ukukhupha. Nangona kunjalo, njengazo zonke izikhombisi zemarike, i-MACD ayinangqondo kwaye kufuneka isetyenziswe ngokubambisana nezinye izikhombisi ukwenza izigqibo ezifanelekileyo zokurhweba.
I-MACD isetyenziswe ngokubanzi yi traders ukususela ekuphuhlisweni kwayo nguGerald Appel ekupheleni koo-1970, kwaye ngesizathu esilungileyo. Ukukwazi kwayo ukuqaphela iintsingiselo eziguqukayo ngokukhawuleza, kunye noluhlu olubanzi lweentlobo zeempawu zenza ukuba ibe sisixhobo esiguquguqukayo kuyo nayiphi na trader's arsenal.1
1 Appel, uGerald. "INdlela yokuRhweba i-Average Convergence Divergence." Traders.com. 1979.
1.2. Iinxalenye ze-MACD
I-MACD, okanye iMoving Average Convergence Divergence, sisalathisi sohlobo lwe-oscillator esetyenziswa ngokubanzi uhlalutyo yobugcisa. I-MACD yenziwe izinto ezintathu eziphambili: umgca we-MACD, umgca weSignali, kunye ne-Histogram.
The Umgca weMACD ibalwa ngokukhupha i-26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) kwi-EMA yeentsuku ezili-12. Lo mgca usetyenziselwa ukuchonga ukuthengwa nokuthengisa iimpawu. Ngokomzekelo, xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komgca wesignali, isignali ye-bullish. Ngokwahlukileyo, xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, ngumqondiso we-bearish.
The Umgca womqondiso yi-EMA yeentsuku ze-9 zomgca we-MACD ngokwayo. Isebenza njenge-trigger yokuthenga nokuthengisa iimpawu. Traders kunye nabatyali-mali bahlawule ingqalelo xa umgca we-MACD kunye nomgca wesignali uwela, njengoko la manqaku ahlala ebonisa ukuguqulwa kweemarike ezinokubakho.
The ngumbala osetyenziselwa ukuzoba imele umahluko phakathi komgca we-MACD kunye nomgca weSignali. Xa umgca we-MACD ungaphezulu komgca wesignali, i-histogram ilungile. Xa umgca we-MACD ungaphantsi komgca wesignali, i-histogram ayinayo. I-histogram iluncedo ekuboniseni ubungakanani kunye nolwalathiso lwesithuba phakathi kwe-MACD kunye nemigca yeSiginali.
Ngokwenene, la macandelo mathathu e-MACD abonelela traders kunye nabatyali-mali abaneseti etyebileyo yedatha ukuxhasa izigqibo zabo zentengiso. Ngokuqonda nokutolika la macandelo ngokuchanekileyo, banokufumana ukuqonda okunzulu kweentsingiselo zeemarike kunye nokuguqulwa okunokwenzeka.
2. Ukutolika Iimpawu ze-MACD
I-MACD, okanye i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence, sisixhobo esinamandla kwi-arsenal yayo nayiphi na into enolwazi. trader okanye umtyali-mali. Eyona njongo yayo iphambili kuku ukuchonga iimpawu ezinokubakho zokuthenga nokuthengisa, enikezela ngengqiqo ebalulekileyo kwiindlela zemarike. Xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezulu komgca wesignali, utolikwa njengophawu lwe-bullish - ixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga. Ngokwahlukileyo, xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, ubonwa ngokubanzi njengesignali ye-bearish, ebonisa indawo yokuthengisa efanelekileyo.
Umba ophambili we-MACD yi umgca onguziro, esebenza njengesiseko samaxabiso alungileyo kunye namabi. Ukuba umgca we-MACD ungaphezulu komgca we-zero, oku kubonisa ukuba i-avareji yexesha elifutshane idlula umyinge wexesha elide - isignali ye-bullish. Ukuba ingaphantsi komgca we-zero, i-avareji yexesha elifutshane iyancipha - isignali ye-bearish. Abatyali-mali kufuneka banikele ingqalelo ukungafani, okwenzekayo xa ixabiso le-asethi kunye ne-MACD zihamba ngendlela echaseneyo. Oku kungabonisa ukuguqulwa kwemarike okunokwenzeka, kwaye luphawu olubalulekileyo olulumkisayo traders.
I-MACD Histogram lelinye icandelo elibalulekileyo ekufuneka liqwalaselwe. Icwangcisa umgama phakathi komgca we-MACD kunye nomgca wesignali, unikezela umboniso obonakalayo wendlela ezimbini ezisebenzisana ngayo. Amaxabiso amahle cebisa umfutho we-bullish, ngelixa amaxabiso angalunganga bonisa ukunyuka kwe-bearish. Ngokukodwa, i-histogram inokunceda traders ichonga xa umfutho wemarike ucotha okanye unyuka ngesantya, unikezela ukuqonda okuphangaleleyo ngakumbi kotshintsho lwemarike.
Ngale mibono, tradeI-RS inokusebenzisa i-MACD ukulinganisa ngokufanelekileyo isikhokelo kunye namandla eendlela zentengiso, ukubona kwangaphambili ukuguqulwa okunokubakho, kunye nokwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi malunga nexesha lokuthenga nokuthengisa. Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba ngelixa i-MACD isisixhobo esinamandla, ayisiyonto yobudenge, kwaye kufuneka ihlale isetyenziswa ngokudibeneyo nezinye izikhombisi kunye neendlela zokuhlalutya. Ngoku ka Investopedia, i-MACD "kufuneka isetyenziswe kunye nezinye izalathisi zobugcisa okanye iipatheni zetshathi ukwandisa ukusebenza kakuhle."
2.1. Umgca wesiginali Crossovers
I-MACD, okanye iMoving Average Convergence Divergence, sisixhobo esinamandla traders, enikezela ngemibono kwiintsingiselo zemarike kunye nokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iimpawu. Umba ophambili wesi sixhobo yi Umgca woMqondiso weCrossover, indlela enokunceda traders gauge isantya semarike kunye nokuqikelela izenzo zexabiso elizayo.
I-Signal Line Crossover iyenzeka xa umgca we-MACD, ubalwa ngokukhupha i-26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ukusuka kwi-EMA ye-12-day, iwela ngaphezulu okanye ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, i-EMA ye-9 yomgca we-MACD. Xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezulu komgca wesignali, ngokuqhelekileyo luphawu lwe-bullish, ebonisa ukuba inokuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, uhlala ujongwa njengomqondiso we-bearish, ubonisa ukuba ingaba lixesha lokuthengisa.
Kodwa kubalulekile ukukhumbula oko Umgca wesiginali Crossovers akufunekanga isetyenziswe yodwa. NjengoGerald Appel, umdali we-MACD, ezi crossovers ngamanye amaxesha zinokuvelisa iimpawu zobuxoki okanye 'i-whipsaws', ngakumbi kwiimarike eziguquguqukayo. Ngoko ke, kubalulekile ukuba traders ukuzisebenzisa ngokudibeneyo nezinye izalathisi zobugcisa okanye iipateni zetshathi zokuqinisekisa imiqondiso kunye nokuphepha ii-alam zobuxoki ezinokubakho.
Umzekelo, a trader unokusebenzisa i Relative Index Ukomelela (RSI) okanye Bollinger Iibhendi ezine-MACD zokwandisa ukuthembeka kweempawu. Ngaphaya koko, kuyacetyiswa ukuba kuthathelwe ingqalelo intsingiselo iyonke kunye nezinye izinto zoqoqosho olukhulu phambi kokuba wenze isigqibo sokurhweba ngokusekwe Umgca wesiginali Crossovers. Njengesiqhelo, lumkile ingozi izicwangciso zolawulo kunye nendlela eqeqeshekileyo ekurhwebeni zibaluleke kakhulu kwimpumelelo kwiimalike zemali.
2.2. Zero Line Crossovers
Xa ufunda i MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), ingcamango ye Zero Line Crossovers iyimfuneko. Ezi ziphambano zenzeke xa umgca we-MACD, umehluko phakathi kweentsuku ze-12 kunye ne-26-day exponential move averages, uwela umgca we-zero. I-crossover enhle ibonisa i-bullish trend, ebonisa ixesha elifanelekileyo traders ukuthenga. Ngokwahlukileyo, i-crossover engalunganga ithetha i-bearish trend, ebonisa ukuba ingaba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthengisa.
Ukusebenza kwe-zero line crossovers, njengaso nasiphi na isicwangciso sokurhweba, akusiyo ngokupheleleyo kwaye kufuneka isetyenziswe ngokubambisana nezinye izibonakaliso. Ngokomzekelo, i Umgca wesiginali Crossovers, umgca wesibini ocwangcisiweyo kwitshathi ye-MACD, unokunceda ukuqinisekisa umgca we-zero crossover. Ukudityaniswa kwezi zibonakaliso zimbini kunokubonelela ngobungqina obunamandla bokutshintsha okunokubakho kwindlela yokuthengisa.
Nangona kunjalo, i-zero line crossovers iyakwazi ukubonelela ngemiqondiso yobuxoki ngexesha lemarike eguquguqukayo. Traders kufuneka ilumke izabhokhwe, eziziinguqu ezibukhali kwixabiso elingakhokelela kwiimpawu ezilahlekisayo. Ke ngoko, kuyacetyiswa ukuba uqwalasele imakethi ukuze uqinisekiswe ngaphambi kokuba usebenze kumgca ongu-zero.
Ngokombiko we Market Technicians Association, i-zero line crossovers zifunyenwe zisebenza ngakumbi ekuchongeni amathuba okuthengisa ixesha elide kuneemeko zexesha elifutshane. Uphononongo lubeka ukuba i-zero line crossovers inokubonelela ngengqiqo ebalulekileyo kwiindlela zentengiso, kodwa ixesha lokwenziwa kwazo lifuna isakhono kunye nokuchaneka.
Khumbula, i-MACD sisixhobo esiguquguqukayo esinika ngaphezu kokuwela umgca ongu-XNUMX. Amanye amacandelo afana ne MACD Histogram kwaye Ukwahluka ziyimfuneko ngokulinganayo ekunikeni igalelo kuhlalutyo olubanzi lwemarike. Ngoko ke, impumelelo trader ngumntu okwaziyo ukudibanisa izinto ezahlukeneyo ze-MACD ukukhulisa isicwangciso sabo sokurhweba.
2.3. Ukwahluka
Ingcamango ukungafani yinto ebalulekileyo xa uhlalutya i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Ukwahlukana, kumxholo we-MACD, ibhekisela kwimeko apho ixabiso lokhuseleko kunye nesalathisi se-MACD sihamba ngendlela echaseneyo. Olu luphawu olubalulekileyo lwemarike traders kunye nabatyali-mali akufuneki ngoyaba.
A ukuhlukana kwe-bullish kwenzeka xa ixabiso lokhuseleko lenza ukuhla okutsha, kodwa i-MACD ihambela phezulu. Oku kwantlukwano kunokuba luphawu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso okunokwenzeka, oku kuthetha ukuba inokuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga. Kwelinye icala, a ukuhlukana komoya ibonakala xa ixabiso lenza ukuphakama okutsha, kodwa i-MACD ihamba phantsi. Olu hlobo lweyantlukwano lunokubonisa ukuhla kwexabiso elinokubakho, libonisa ukuba inokuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthengisa.
Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba ngelixa iiyantlukwano zinokunika ukuqonda okubalulekileyo, akufuneki zisetyenziswe zodwa. Njengoko kuboniswe ngu-Murphy kwincwadi yakhe ethi "Uhlalutyo lobuGcisa kwiiMarike zezeMali," izibonakaliso zokuhlukana zivame ukuthembela ngakumbi xa zisetyenziselwa kunye nezinye izibonakaliso zobugcisa. Oku kunokunceda traders kunye nabatyali-mali banyusa amathuba okwenza izigqibo zorhwebo ngempumelelo.
Ngaphezu koko, ukwahluka ngamanye amaxesha kunokulahlekisa. Akuqhelekanga ukuba ukwahlukana kwenzeke, kuphela ukuba ixabiso liqhubele phambili indlela yalo yokuqala. Oku kwaziwa njenge-a ukwahluka kobuxoki. Ke ngoko, ngexa iyantlukwano inokubonelela ngezimvo ezixabisekileyo kuguquko lwemarike olunokubakho, lubalulekile ukuba traders kunye nabatyali-mali ukuba bayisebenzise ecaleni kwezinye izixhobo zobugcisa kunye nokuhlala beqwalasela imeko yemarike ebanzi.
Ngokucacileyo, iyantlukwano yinto nje enye ye-MACD, kodwa ukuqonda lo mgaqo kunokuphucula kakhulu amandla akho ohlalutyo lobuchwephesha. Ngokujongwa ngononophelo kunye nokusebenzisa ngobulumko, ukwahluka kwe-MACD kunokuba sisixhobo esinamandla kumkhosi wakho wokurhweba, kukunceda ubone iindawo ezinokuthi zenzeke kwimarike ngaphambi kokuba zenzeke.
3. ISicwangciso soRhwebo se-MACD sobuchule
The I-MACD (Ukuhambisa umndilili wokuDibana kokuDibana) iqhinga lokurhweba yindlela ethandwayo phakathi traders nabatyali-zimali, idume ngokusebenza kwayo ekuchongeni amathuba okuthenga nokuthengisa. Ngokuthelekisa intsebenziswano yee-avareji ezimbini ezihambayo, isicwangciso se-MACD sinokunceda traders ichonga amaxesha abalulekileyo emarikeni.
Ukwandisa ukusetyenziswa kwesicwangciso se-MACD, kubalulekile ukuqonda amacandelo amathathu abalulekileyo: umgca we-MACD, umgca wesignali, kunye ne-histogram ye-MACD. I Umgca weMACD ngumahluko phakathi kwe-12-day kunye ne-26-day exponential move averages (EMAs), ngelixa umgca wesignali yi-EMA yeentsuku ze-9 zomgca we-MACD.
Xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komgca wesignali, uvelisa isignali ye-bullish, ebonisa ukuba ingaba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, udala uphawu lwe-bearish, lubonisa ukuba ingaba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthengisa.
I-histogram ye-MACD, emele umahluko phakathi komgca we-MACD kunye nomgca wesignali, idlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuqikeleleni iindlela zeemarike. Xa i-histogram ilungile (umgca we-MACD ungaphezulu komgca wesignali), unokubonisa ukunyuka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-histogram engalunganga (umgca we-MACD ngaphantsi komgca wesignali) unokucebisa ukuhla.
Into ebalulekileyo ekufuneka uyikhumbule malunga nesicwangciso sokurhweba se-MACD kukuxhomekeka kwayo kwiimeko zemarike. Ngexesha leemarike eziguquguqukayo, i-MACD inokuvelisa iimpawu zobuxoki. Ke ngoko, kuyacetyiswa ukuba uyisebenzise ngokudibeneyo nezinye izikhombisi zobugcisa kuhlalutyo olubanzi noluchanekileyo lwemarike.
Ngokophononongo olupapashwe kwi-International Journal of Trade, EzoQoqosho, kunye nezeMali, isicwangciso se-MACD sinokusebenza ngokukodwa xa sidibene ne-Relative Strength Index (RSI).1 Ngelixa i-MACD inceda ukuchonga utshintsho olunokwenzeka kunye nokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa amathuba, i-RSI inokuqinisekisa le miqondiso ngokulinganisa isantya kunye nokutshintsha kweentshukumo zexabiso.
Ulawulo lwengozi ngomnye umba obalulekileyo wokulawula isicwangciso sokurhweba se-MACD. Ngalo lonke ixesha qinisekisa ukuseta imiyalelo yelahleko yokuyeka ukukhusela utyalo-mali lwakho kwilahleko enkulu ukuba kunokwenzeka ukuba imakethi ihambelane noqikelelo lwakho.
1 "Uphononongo loBugcisa kuHlalutyo lobuGcisa lokuQikelela iiTrendi zeMarike yeStokhwe", Ijenali yeHlabathi ye Trade, EzoQoqosho, kunye nezeMali, ngo-2012.
3.1. I-MACD njengeSicwangciso esilandela iTrend
The I-MACD (Ukuhambisa umndilili wokuDibana kokuDibana) sisixhobo esinamandla ezandleni zengcali trader, ngakumbi njengesicwangciso esilandela umkhondo. Sisalathisi sobugcisa esinokunceda traders ukuchonga amathuba okuthenga okanye okuthengisa anokubakho ngokusekelwe kwiintsingiselo zemarike. Oku kuphunyezwa ngokulandelela ukusebenzisana phakathi kwee-avareji ezimbini ezihambayo: umgca we-MACD kunye nomgca wesignali.
Umgca we-MACD ngumahluko phakathi kwe-26-day kunye ne-12-day exponential moving average (EMA), ngelixa umgca wesignali yi-EMA ye-9 yomgca we-MACD. Ukudibana kwale migca kwenza isiseko sesicwangciso sokulandela intsingiselo ye-MACD.
xa Umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komgca wesignali, ibonwa ngokubanzi njengophawu lwe-bullish, ebonisa amandla okunyuka kwendlela. Ngokuchaseneyo, xa i Umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, ikhomba kwindlela enokwenzeka ye-bearish.
Nangona kunjalo, njengabo bonke izicwangciso zorhwebo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba iimpawu ze-MACD azikho isidenge. Kufuneka zisetyenziswe ngokubambisana nezinye izixhobo zokuhlalutya lobugcisa kunye nedatha yemarike ukwenza izigqibo zokurhweba ezinolwazi. Ukudibanisa isicwangciso sokulandela i-MACD esinentsingiselo kunye nolawulo lomngcipheko oluvakalayo lunokunceda traders ukuhamba emanzini aguquguqukayo kwiimarike zemali.
Kuphononongo olwenziwe yi Ijenali yohlalutyo lobuchwephesha, I-MACD ifunyenwe njengesixhobo esithembekileyo sokubikezela ukunyakaza kwexabiso lexesha elifutshane, ukuqinisa ixabiso layo kwisicwangciso sorhwebo esibanzi. Ngaphandle kokulula kwayo, ibonelela ngeembono ezixabisekileyo kwiindlela zentengiso, inceda traders ukuhlala inyathelo elinye phambili.
Ngaphaya koko, amandla e-MACD awaphelelanga ekuchongeni isiqalo kunye nokuphela kwendlela. Ikwaluncedo ekuchongeni ukwahluka kwamaxabiso. Ngokomzekelo, xa ixabiso lifikelela kwinqanaba elitsha kodwa i-MACD ayifuni, inokubonisa ubuthathaka be-uptrend kunye nokuguqulwa kwemarike okunokwenzeka.
Ngoko ke, ukuqonda kunye nokusetyenziswa ngokufanelekileyo kwe-MACD njengesicwangciso sokulandela umkhondo kunokuphakamisa kakhulu a tradeUkukwazi kwe-r ukucacisa iintshukumo zemarike, kwaye ngokulandelelana, impumelelo yabo yorhwebo.
3.2. I-MACD njengeQhinga leMomentum
Kwihlabathi lorhwebo kunye notyalo-mali, i MACD (I-Moving Average Convergence Divergence) sisalathisi esaziwayo, ngakumbi xa kufikwa kwisicwangciso somfutho. Esi salathiso saphuhliswa nguGerald Appel ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yoo-1970 ukubona utshintsho kumandla, umkhombandlela, umfutho, kunye nobude bexesha lentengo yesitokhwe.
The MACD sisalathiso sentshukumo esilandela umkhondo esibonisa unxulumano phakathi kweeavareji ezimbini ezihambayo zexabiso lokhuseleko. I-MACD ibalwa ngokutsala i-26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) kwi-EMA ye-12. Isiphumo soku kuthabatha ngumgca we-MACD. I-EMA yeentsuku ezisithoba ze-MACD, ebizwa ngokuba "ngumgca wesignali," emva koko ibekwe phezulu kumgca we-MACD, onokusebenza njengezinto ezibangela ukuthenga nokuthengisa iimpawu.
Traders inokuthenga isibambiso xa i MACD iwela ngaphezu komgca wayo wesignali kwaye uthengise - okanye ufutshane - ukhuseleko xa i-MACD iwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali. Ngapha koko, i-histogram ye-MACD, ecetywe ngemivalo ethe nkqo, ibonisa umgama phakathi komgca we-MACD kunye nomgca wesignali we-MACD. Ukuba umgca we-MACD ungaphezulu komgca wesignali, i-histogram iya kuba ngaphezu kwesiseko se-MACD. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuba umgca we-MACD ungaphantsi komgca wesignali, i-histogram iya kuba ngaphantsi kwesiseko se-MACD. Traders sebenzisa i-histogram ukuchonga xa i-bullish okanye i-bearish momentum iphezulu.
Ngokukwazi kwayo ukunyusa idatha yexabiso kwaye uyiguqule ibe yisalathisi esisebenzisekayo sokulandela, i MACD sisixhobo esixabisekileyo se trader ifuna ukuphumeza isicwangciso esikhawulezileyo. Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba ngelixa i-MACD iyisitye esinamandla, isetyenziswe ngokufanelekileyo ngokubambisana nezinye izibonakaliso kunye nobuchule bokuhlalutya ukuqinisekisa iimpawu kunye nokukhusela iimpawu zobuxoki.
3.3. Ukudibanisa i-MACD kunye nezinye izalathisi zobuGcisa
Ngelixa i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sisixhobo esinamandla ngokwaso, ukusebenza kwayo kunokwandiswa kakhulu xa isetyenziswe ngokubambisana nezinye izikhombisi zobugcisa. Ukudibanisa i-MACD kunye ne I-Index of Strength Index (RSI) or Bollinger Nyanda, umzekelo, inokubonelela ngembono ebanzi yeemeko zemarike.
RSI, elinganisa isantya kunye nokutshintsha kweentshukumo zexabiso, inokuncedisa i-MACD ngokunceda ukuqinisekisa ukuba imarike ithengwa kakhulu okanye ithengiswa. Xa izikhombisi ze-RSI kunye ne-MACD zihambelana, zinokubonelela ngomqondiso onamandla traders. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba i-MACD ibonisa i-bullish crossover (umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komgca wesignali) kwaye i-RSI ingaphantsi kwe-30 (ebonisa iimeko ezithengiswayo), ingabonakalisa ithuba elinamandla lokuthenga.
Kwelinye icala, Bollinger Nyanda inokusetyenziswa ecaleni kwe-MACD ukuchonga ukungazinzi kunye namanqanaba exabiso akwiimeko ezithengwe ngokugqithisileyo okanye ezithengiswe kakhulu. Xa ixabiso lithinta i-Bollinger Band ephezulu kunye nomgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, unokubonisa ithuba lokuthengisa. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuba ixabiso lithinta i-Bollinger Band ephantsi kwaye umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komgca wesignali, unokubonisa ithuba lokuthenga.
Khumbula, ngelixa ezi zicwangciso zinokuphucula ukusebenza kwe-MACD, azikho isidenge kwaye kufuneka zisetyenziswe ngokubambisana nesicwangciso sorhwebo esibanzi kunye neendlela zokulawula ingozi. Njengophononongo olwenziwe nguHuang, Yu, and Wang (2009), ukudibanisa izikhombisi ezininzi zobugcisa kunokunyusa inzuzo yezicwangciso zokurhweba, kodwa kubalulekile ukuqonda indlela isalathisi ngasinye esisebenza ngayo kunye nokuzisebenzisa ngokufanelekileyo kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo zemarike.
Kukwabalulekile ukuba umva nasiphi na isicwangciso phambi kokuphunyezwa. Ukubuyisela umva kubandakanya ukusebenzisa isicwangciso sakho kwidatha yembali ukubona ukuba ngekwenze njani. Oku kunokubonelela ngeembono ezixabisekileyo kwaye kuncede ukulungisa indlela yakho. Njengoko isaci sakudala sihamba, βCwangcisa eyakho trade kwaye trade icebo lakho.β
4. Iingcebiso eziSebenzayo kwi-MACD Trading
Enye yezona ndlela zisebenzayo zokusebenzisa i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) yile usebenzisa ii-crossovers. I-crossover ye-bullish iyenzeka xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komgca wesignali, ebonisa ukuba ingaba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-bearish crossover, apho umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, ubonisa ukuba ingaba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthengisa. Ngalo lonke ixesha qwalasela imeko yemarike xa utolika i-MACD crossovers; ngokwe-Dow Theory, "iindlela ezikhoyo zikho de imiqondiso eqinisekileyo ingqina ukuba iphelile."[1]
Elinye iqhinga elinamandla kuku chonga iyantlukwano phakathi kwe-MACD kunye nexabiso le-asethi. Ukuba ixabiso le-asethi lenza ukuphakama okutsha, kodwa i-MACD ayifuni, le ntlukwano ye-bearish ingabonisa ukuguqulwa kwexabiso elinokuthi lihlehlise. Ukwahlukana kwe-bullish, kwelinye icala, kwenzeka xa ixabiso lenza eliphantsi elitsha, kodwa i-MACD ayifuni, ichaza ixabiso elinokuthi libuyele phezulu.
Zilumkele imiqondiso yobuxoki. I-MACD, njengazo zonke izikhombisi, ayinakukhohlisa kwaye inokuvelisa iimpawu zobuxoki. Ukunciphisa lo mngcipheko, cinga ukusebenzisa i-MACD ngokubambisana nezinye izibonakaliso okanye izixhobo zokuhlalutya kwezobugcisa ukuqinisekisa iimpawu kunye nokuphepha izinto ezinokuthi zibe nobuxoki.
Lungiselela useto lwe-MACD ukulingana isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba. Izicwangciso ezisemgangathweni ze-MACD (12, 26, 9) azibekwanga ngamatye. Dlala ngokujikeleza ngeseto ezahlukeneyo ukuze ufumane oko kusebenza kakuhle kwisitayile sakho sokurhweba kunye ne-asethi ethile oyithengisayo. Qaphela ukuba izicwangciso ezimfutshane ziza kwenza i-MACD ibe buthathaka ngakumbi, ngelixa izicwangciso ezide ziza kuyenza ibe ngaphantsi.[2]
Okokugqibela, masingayilibali loo nto umonde luphawu ekurhwebeni. Lindela imiqondiso eqinisekisiweyo kwaye ungangxami ungene trades isekelwe kwiintshukumo ze-MACD zexesha elifutshane. Njengodumo trader UJesse Livermore wakha wathi, βAyizange ibe yingcinga yam eyandenzela imali enkulu. Yayisoloko iyindawo yam yokuhlala. "[3] Eli cebiso lihlala liyinyani kurhwebo lwe-MACD; linda umqondiso ochanekileyo, uze wenze ngokukhawuleza.
[1] UCharles Dow. "Ithiyori kaDow yeeMarike." IWall Street Journal, ngo-1901.
[2] Gerald Appel. "Uhlalutyo lobuGcisa: Izixhobo zaMandla kubaTyali-mali abaSebenzayo." FT Press, 2005.
[3] UJesse Livermore. "Iinkumbulo zoMsebenzi weStokhwe." UJohn Wiley kunye noonyana, ngo-1923.
4.1. Ukuphepha Imiqondiso Yobuxoki
I-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sisixhobo esinamandla kwizandla zomtyali-mali onolwazi, kodwa ayisiyonto yobudenge. Enye yezona zinto ziqhelekileyo ziwela kwiimpawu zobuxoki, ezinokukhokelela kwizigqibo zokurhweba ezimbi.
Ukuqonda indlela yokuchonga kunye nokuphepha ezi zibonakaliso zobuxoki kunokuphucula kakhulu isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba. Ukuqala, kubalulekile ukuba ungathembeli kuphela kwi-MACD kwizigqibo zakho zokurhweba. Kufuneka isetyenziswe ngokubambisana nezinye izikhombisi kunye nezixhobo zokuqinisekisa uhlalutyo oluchanekileyo lwemarike. Umqondiso omnye unokulahlekisa, ngelixa iimpawu ezininzi ezihambelanayo zihlala zisisalathisi esinamandla sokuhamba kwexabiso elizayo.
Ngaphezu koko, kubalulekile ukuba ukuqonda iimeko zemarike orhweba phantsi kwayo. Izicwangciso ezahlukeneyo ze-MACD zisebenza ngcono kwiimeko zeemarike ezahlukeneyo. Ngokomzekelo, kwimarike eguquguqukayo, i-MACD inokuvelisa iimpawu ezininzi zobuxoki, ngelixa kwimarike ehamba phambili, inokuchaneka.
Enye indlela yokuphepha imiqondiso yobuxoki ku sebenzisa i-MACD ngokubambisana nomgca wesignali. Umgca wesignali yi-EMA ye-9 yeentsuku ze-MACD Line. Njengomndilili ohambahambayo wesalathisi, inokusebenza njengento egudileyo kwiimpawu ze-MACD. Ngoku ka Investopedia, xa i-MACD iwela ngaphezu komgca wesignali, inika uphawu lwe-bullish, ebonisa ukuba ingaba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, xa i-MACD iwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, inika uphawu lwe-bearish.
Okokugqibela, qwalasela i ixesha lesicwangciso sakho sokurhweba. Amaxesha amafutshane anokuvelisa iimpawu ezingezizo ezongezelelekileyo, ngelixa ixesha elide linokubonelela ngemiqondiso ethembeke ngakumbi. Indlela eqhelekileyo kukusebenzisa i-MACD kwitshathi yeveki ukuchaza imeko yonke kwaye usebenzise itshati yemihla ngemihla ukwenza ixesha lakho. trades.
Ngokuqonda ezi nuances, unokuwunqanda umgibe wemiqondiso yobuxoki kwaye wenze i-MACD ibe yinxalenye ebalulekileyo yesicwangciso sakho sokurhweba.
4.2. Ukusebenzisa i-MACD kwiiMeko zeMarike ezahlukeneyo
The I-MACD (Ukuhambisa umndilili wokuDibana kokuDibana) sisixhobo esisebenza ngeendlela ezininzi esinokusetyenziswa kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo zentengiso. Kuluncedo kakhulu ekuchongeni ukuthengwa nokuthengisa iimpawu kuzo zombini iimarike ezihamba phambili kunye nezibopheneyo.
Kwi imarike ehamba phambili, i-MACD inokunceda traders chonga iindawo ezinokungena kunye nokuphuma kuzo. Xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphezulu komgca wesignali, ihlala iyisiginali ye-bullish enokuphakamisa ixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga. Ngokwahlukileyo, xa umgca we-MACD uwela ngaphantsi komgca wesignali, ubonwa ngokubanzi njengesignali ye-bearish kwaye inokubonisa ukuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthengisa.
Kwi imarike yoluhlu, i-MACD inokungqineka iluncedo. TradeI-rs ihlala ijonge ukungafani phakathi kwe-MACD kunye nesenzo sexabiso njengophawu lokuguqulwa okunokwenzeka. Umzekelo, ukuba ixabiso lenza ukuhla okuphantsi kodwa i-MACD yenza i-lows ephezulu, le ntlukwano ye-bullish inokucebisa ukuba ukuhla kwenyuka kuphulukana nomfutho kwaye ukuguqulwa kunokuba kumakhadi.
Nangona kunjalo, njengaso nasiphi na isixhobo sokurhweba, i-MACD ayisiyonyani. Kubalulekile ukuyisebenzisa ngokubambisana nezinye izikhombisi kunye neendlela zokuhlalutya ukwandisa amathuba okuphumelela. Oku kungqinelwa nguJohn J. Murphy kwincwadi yakhe ethi 'Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets', apho athi, "Ezona zibonakaliso zibalaseleyo zanikezelwa ngokwahlukana kwi-MACD-Histogram."
Ukufunda i-histogram ye-MACD inokubonelela ngeembono ezongezelelweyo. Xa i-histogram ilungile, ibonisa ukuba umgca we-MACD ungaphezulu komgca wesignali kwaye unokucebisa ukunyuka kwe-bullish. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, xa i-histogram ingalunganga, oko kuthetha ukuba umgca we-MACD ungaphantsi komgca wesignali kwaye unokucebisa ukunyuka kwe-bearish.
Traders inokukhangela kwakhona umahluko histogram njengolunye uphawu olunokubakho. Umzekelo, ukuba ixabiso lenza ukuphakama okuphezulu kodwa i-histogram yenza ukuphakama okuphantsi, le divergence ye-bearish inokucebisa ukuba i-high trend ilahlekelwa ngumphunga kwaye ukuguqulwa kunokuba kusondele.
Khumbula, i-MACD sisixhobo nje esinye kwi-a trader's arsenal. Isebenza kakhulu xa isetyenziswa njengenxalenye yesicwangciso esibanzi sokurhweba, kuthathelwa ingqalelo ezinye izalathisi zobugcisa, uhlalutyo oluphambili, kunye noluvo lwemarike.
4.3. Ulawulo loMngcipheko kwi-MACD Trading
Ukuqonda kunye nokuphumeza ulawulo lomngcipheko ngumba obalulekileyo Urhwebo lwe-MACD. I-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (i-MACD) sisalathiso sesantya esilandela umndilili esibonisa ubudlelwane phakathi kwemiyinge emibini ehambayo yexabiso lokhuseleko. Sisixhobo esinexabiso, kodwa njengazo zonke iindlela zokurhweba, ayisiyonto yobudenge.
Ulawulo lwengozi kulo mxholo ikakhulu kubandakanya ukuseta a ukuyeka ukulahleka inqanaba. Ilahleko yokuyeka yiodolo efakwe kunye ne broker ukuthengisa isibambiso xa sifikelela kwixabiso elithile. MACD traders bahlala bebeka ilahleko yabo yokumisa kwi-swing yamva nje ephezulu okanye ujingi olusezantsi ukunciphisa ilahleko enokwenzeka. Luqheliselo olunokukunceda ukukhusela inkunzi yakho xa imarike ijikela kwisikhundla sakho.
kwakhona, traders sebenzisa i-histogram ye-MACD ukulinganisa amandla omzila. Ukuba i-histogram ingaphezulu kwe-zero kwaye iyenyuka, luphawu olunamandla. Ukuba ingaphantsi kwe-zero kwaye iyawa, luphawu oluqinileyo lwe-bearish. Ukurhweba kwicala lomzila kunye nokwazi le miqondiso kunokunceda ukulawula umngcipheko.
Esinye isicwangciso solawulo lomngcipheko siquka ukubeka umngcipheko kwipesenti encinci yenkunzi yakho yokurhweba kuyo nayiphi na enye trade. Umgaqo oqhelekileyo wesithupha kukubeka emngciphekweni ongekho ngaphezulu kwe-1-2% yenkunzi yakho yokurhweba enye trade. Oku kunceda ukuqinisekisa ukuba nokuba a trade iya ngokuchasene nawe, ilahleko yakho iya kulinganiselwa.
Ngaphezu koko, traders unokusebenzisa ulwahlulo ukulawula umngcipheko. Oku kuthetha ukuba ungabeki onke amaqanda akho kwingobozi enye. Ngokurhweba ngeempahla ezahlukeneyo, unokusasaza umngcipheko kwaye unokwandisa amathuba akho okwenza inzuzo.
Umngcipheko ukuya kumvuzo umlinganiselo yenye into ebalulekileyo. Umngcipheko ukuya kumvuzo ulinganisa umahluko phakathi kwe tradeIndawo yokungena kunye nelahleko yokuyeka kunye nenqanaba lokuthatha inzuzo. Umlinganiselo ka 1:3, umzekelo, uthetha ukuba ubeka umngcipheko ku-1 ukuze wenze u-3. Traders rhoqo khangela trades ngomlinganiselo ochanekileyo wokuvuza umngcipheko wokwandisa iingeniso zabo ezinokubakho xa kuthelekiswa nelahleko enokubakho.
Ngokwenyani, ulawulo lomngcipheko kurhwebo lwe-MACD lubandakanya indibaniselwano yamanyathelo abandakanya ukuseta amanqanaba elahleko yokuyeka, ukurhweba kwicala lendlela, ukubeka umngcipheko kuphela ipesenti encinci yemali yakho kuye nabani na. trade, ukwahlulahlula kwakho trades, kunye nokufuna umlinganiselo womngcipheko wokuvuzwa. Kukwenza izigqibo ezicingisisiweyo kwaye ungazishiyi izinto zibe lula. Khumbula, injongo kukukhusela inkunzi yakho kunye nokwandisa inzuzo yakho enokubakho.
Khumbula, isicwangciso esilungileyo solawulo lomngcipheko yinto eyahlula i-seasoned trader ukusuka novice. Yeyona siseko sokuphumelela kwexesha elide ekurhwebeni. Ke, tyala ixesha lakho ekuqondeni nasekuphumezeni ezi zicwangciso. Ikamva lakho lokurhweba liya kukubulela.
