URhwebo lomqhaphu: Isikhokelo soMqalisi ogqibeleleyo

1. Ukuqonda iSiseko sokuRhweba komqhaphu

Ihlabathi lokurhweba komqhaphu lilizwe eliguquguqukayo nelinomtsalane, elizele ngamathuba abo bazimisele ukuphonononga ubunzima bayo. Umqhaphu, ubalulekile yorhwebo kwimarike yehlabathi, kunjalo traded ngobungakanani obukhulu kutshintshiselwano olwahlukeneyo kwihlabathi liphela. Eyona nto iphambili yokuthengisa ikotoni kukuqonda ukuguqulwa kweemarike, eziphenjelelwa zizinto ezininzi ezifana neemeko zemozulu, iziganeko ze-geopolitical, kunye nezibonakaliso zezoqoqosho.

Urhwebo lwamabala kunye norhwebo lwexesha elizayo zimbini iindlela eziphambili ezisetyenziswayo kurhwebo lomqhaphu. Urhwebo lwamabala lubandakanya ukuthengwa okanye ukuthengiswa komqhaphu kwangoko, kunye nentengiselwano isonjululwe 'kwalapho'. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukurhweba kwixesha elizayo kubandakanya ukuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iikontraki zekotoni ukuze zihanjiswe kumhla ozayo. Le ndlela iyakuvumela traders ukuthintela ukuhla nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwaye sisixhobo esibalulekileyo sokulawula ingozi.

Ukufunyanwa kwexabiso ngumba ophambili wokurhweba komqhaphu. Yinkqubo apho imarike imisela ixabiso lomqhaphu ngokusekelwe kwizinto zokubonelela kunye nemfuno. Traders kufuneka ibeke iliso elibukhali kwiintsingiselo zemarike, iindaba, kunye nedatha ukwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi.

Uhlalutyo technical kwaye uhlalutyo oluphambili zizicwangciso ezibini ezisetyenziswa ngokubanzi kurhwebo lomqhaphu. Uhlalutyo lobuchwephesha lubandakanya ukufunda iitshathi zexabiso kunye nokusebenzisa izikhombisi-manani ukuqikelela ukunyakaza kwexabiso elizayo. Uhlalutyo olusisiseko, ngakolunye uhlangothi, lujonga izinto ezibanzi zezoqoqosho kunye ne-geopolitical ezinokuchaphazela ixabiso lekotoni.

Kurhwebo lomqhaphu, ukuqonda i umgangatho amabakala Umqhaphu nawo ubalulekile. Umgangatho womqhaphu umiselwa yimiba efana nombala, ubude bomqhaphu, kunye namandla, kwaye inefuthe elikhulu kwixabiso. TradeAbafundi mabaziqhelanise namabakala ahlukeneyo omgangatho kunye nendlela anefuthe ngayo ekubekweni kwamaxabiso.

Ukwamkela ubunzima bokurhweba komqhaphu kunokuba ngumzamo ovuzayo, ukubonelela ngokudityaniswa okukodwa kwemingeni kunye namathuba. Ngolwazi oluchanekileyo, izixhobo kunye namaqhinga, traders inokukhangela le marike idlamkileyo ngokuzithemba.

1.1. Yintoni uRhwebo lomqhaphu?

Urhwebo lomqhaphu ngumba oguqukayo nonika umdla kurhwebo lwehlabathi jikelele, apho umqhaphu, umqhaphu, ifayibha ethambileyo, ehlumayo ekhula kwibhola ejikeleze imbewu yesityalo somqhaphu, ithengwe, ithengiswe, kwaye kuqikelelwe ngayo. Olu rhwebelwano lunokwenzeka ngokwasemzimbeni, apho iibhali zokwenyani zomqhaphu zitshintsha izandla, kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo, apho izivumelwano zokuhanjiswa komqhaphu kwixesha elizayo zikhoyo. traded.

Intliziyo yorhwebo lomqhaphu ilele kwiindlela zayo ezimbini eziphambili: indawo yokuthengisa kwaye ikamva lokurhweba. Urhwebo lwamabala lubandakanya ukuthengwa kwangoko okanye ukuthengiswa komqhaphu kumaxabiso emarike angoku, ngelixa urhwebo lwexesha elizayo lubandakanya ukuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iikhontrakthi zokuhanjiswa komqhaphu ngomhla ochaziweyo wekamva.

Ikamva lokurhweba inika umdla ngakumbi njengoko ikuvumela traders ukuqikelela ngexabiso elizayo lomqhaphu, ngokusekwe kwizinto ezifana neepateni zemozulu, imfuno yehlabathi, kunye neziganeko ze-geopolitical. Olu hlobo lorhwebo lwenziwa kutshintshiselwano lwexesha elizayo, kunye nelona libalaseleyo yi-Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Ukuthengisa indawo, kwelinye icala, lithe tye ngakumbi kwaye libandakanya ukutshintshiselwa kwangoko komqhaphu ngemali. Olu hlobo lokurhweba luqhele ukwenziwa phakathi kwabalimi bomqhaphu kunye nabavelisi belaphu, nangona bengumlamli traders inokubandakanyeka.

Kuzo zombini iindlela zokurhweba, injongo kukufumana inzuzo ngokuguquguquka kwexabiso lomqhaphu. Oku kuguquguquka kunokuphenjelelwa zizinto ezahlukeneyo, kubandakanywa utshintsho kwimveliso yekotoni yehlabathi, utshintsho kwimfuno yabathengi yeemveliso zekotoni, kunye nokuguqulwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente ehambelana nezolimo kunye nezolimo. trade.

Ulwazi nokuqonda kwezi zinto, kunye neliso elibukhali kwiindlela zemarike kunye nokuzimisela ukuthatha imingcipheko ebalwayo, zingundoqo kurhwebo oluyimpumelelo lwekotoni. Nokuba ungumlimi ujonge ukufumana elona xabiso lilungileyo lesityalo sakho, umenzi wempahla elukayo ofuna ukuqinisekisa unikezelo oluzinzileyo lwemathiriyeli ekrwada, okanye umntu oqiqiweyo onethemba lokuzuza ingeniso kwiintshukumo zamaxabiso, urhwebo lomqhaphu lunika ihlabathi lamathuba.

1.2. Ukubaluleka komqhaphu kwiMarike yeHlabathi

Umqhaphu ayisiyontsinga nje efukufuku eyenza iimpahla zakho zithambe kwaye ziphefumle. Yi imeko yehlabathi elilawula uqoqosho, liphembelela ezopolitiko, kwaye libumbe ubomi bethu bemihla ngemihla. Umqhaphu a yorhwebo traded kuzo zonke iimarike zamazwe ngamazwe, kwaye ukubaluleka kwayo akunakubaxwa.

Ukumkani wemicu yendalo, umqhaphu, ulinywe iminyaka engaphezu kwe-7000, kwaye namhlanje, imveliso yayo yehlabathi idlula i-25 yezigidi zeetoni zeemetric ngonyaka. Yi icandelo elibalulekileyo kushishino lwamalaphu, olubalelwa phantse kwi-40% yazo zonke iifayibha ezisetyenziswa kwihlabathi jikelele. Ukuguquguquka komqhaphu, ukuqina, kunye nokunethezeka kwenza ukuba ibe yeyona nto ikhethwayo kuyo yonke into ukusuka kwijean kunye nezikipa ukuya kwifashoni ephezulu kunye nempahla yasekhaya.

Kodwa asingomzi-mveliso wefashoni kuphela okhotyokiswe ngumqhaphu. I icandelo lezolimo uthembele kakhulu kuyo nayo. I-cottonseed, i-byproduct yemveliso yomqhaphu, ngumthombo oxabisekileyo wesondlo semfuyo. Ioli ye-cottonseed, ekhutshwe kule mbewu, yinto eqhelekileyo kwiimveliso ezininzi zokutya kunye nezithambiso.

Global trade kwikotoni yiwebhu entsonkothileyo yokubonelela kunye nemfuno ye-dynamics, ephenjelelwa yimiba efana neemeko zemozulu, ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko, kunye nokuqhubela phambili kwezobuchwepheshe. Amazwe afana neTshayina, i-Indiya, i-United States, nePakistan ngawona avelisa umqhaphu aphezulu ehlabathini, ngoxa iimarike ezisakhasayo e-Afrika noMzantsi Merika zisaqhubeka nokwandisa isabelo sazo.

Ihlabathi lokuthengisa umqhaphu a umdlalo onzima kakhulu enokuthi ivelise ingeniso ebalulekileyo kwabo babuqondayo ubucukubhede bayo. Amaxabiso omqhaphu adume ngokuguquguquka, aguquguquka kakhulu ekuphenduleni utshintsho kubonelelo kunye nemfuno. Oku ukungazinzi ingaba yintsikelelo traders abayaziyo indlela yokukhangela amahla ndenyuka emarike.

Ukuqonda ukubaluleka komqhaphu kwimarike yehlabathi linyathelo lokuqala lokuba ngumqhaphu onempumelelo trader. Luhambo olufuna iliso elibukhali leenkcukacha, ukuqonda okuqinileyo kweentsingiselo zezoqoqosho zehlabathi, kunye nedosi enempilo yomonde. Kodwa kwabo balungele umngeni, imivuzo inokuba mikhulu.

1.3. Indima yoMqhaphu kuRhwebo lweMveliso

Umqhaphu, umqhaphu ovuthulukayo onxibe uluntu kangangamawaka eminyaka, unendima eyodwa ekurhwebeni kweemveliso. Kwilabyrinth yorhwebo lwehlabathi, umqhaphu awuyonto nje yorhwebo; yi umdlali oyintloko ephembelela uqoqosho lwamazwe amaninzi.

Ngokomzekelo, khawucinge ngeUnited States, apho umqhaphu uyenye yezona zinto zithengwayo kumazwe angaphandle. Xa ixabiso lekotoni likhuphuka, linokuvuselela uqoqosho, luchaphazela yonke into ukusuka kwimpilo yamafama ukuya kumaxabiso esitokhwe sabathengisi bempahla. Kodwa impembelelo yomqhaphu idlulela ngaphaya kwemida yamazwe avelisa umqhaphu.

Kwimarike yorhwebo yehlabathi, umqhaphu yi Niselo kwezinye izinto ezithambileyo. Ixabiso layo lihlala lisetyenziswa njenge-barometer yokulinganisa impilo yoqoqosho olubanzi. Xa ixabiso lomqhaphu liphezulu, lingabonakalisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngelixa amaxabiso aphantsi angabonisa uqoqosho olucothayo.

Umqhaphu ukwanophawu olulodwa oluwenza wahluke kwezinye izinto zorhwebo. Ngokungafaniyo neoli okanye igolide, ezizizixhobo ezilinganiselweyo, ikotoni ngumthombo ohlaziyekayo. Oku kuthetha ukuba unikezelo lwawo alupheleliselwanga kukugquma komhlaba kodwa ngamandla amafama okuwukhulisa. Oku kwenza ukurhweba komqhaphu kube yintsimi eguquguqukayo kunye neguqukayo, njengoko traders kufuneka ibeke iliso kuyo yonke into ukusuka kwiipateni zemozulu ukuya kwiziganeko ze-geopolitical ezinokuchaphazela imveliso yomqhaphu.

Umqhaphu wokurhweba, ke ngoko, kufuna ukuqonda okunzulu kungekuphela nje kwezoqoqosho, kodwa nezolimo, imozulu, kunye nobudlelwane bamazwe ngamazwe. Yintsimi entsonkothileyo kwaye inika umdla enika amathuba angenasiphelo kwabo bazimiseleyo ukuphengulula kubuntsonkothi bayo. Nokuba ungumntu onamava trader okanye oqalayo ojonge ukuntywila iinzwane zakho kwihlabathi lorhwebo lwempahla, umqhaphu unika umngeni okhethekileyo kunye nomvuzo.

2. Ukuqalisa kuRhwebo lweCotton

Ukuqalisa uhambo lwakho lokurhweba ngekotoni kufana nokuhamba ngesikhephe ukuya kulwandlekazi olukhulu lweemveliso zorhwebo. Libala lemidlalo elizaliswe ngamathuba, imingcipheko, kunye nemivuzo. Inyathelo lokuqala ku ukuqonda imarike. Umqhaphu, njengempahla yorhwebo, iphenjelelwa zizinto ezahlukeneyo ezibandakanya iimeko zemozulu, imveliso yehlabathi kunye neendlela zokusetyenziswa, kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yezoqoqosho.

1. Ukufunda ukufunda le miqondiso ibalulekile. Umzekelo, imbalela kwindawo evelisa umqhaphu omkhulu inokuthi inyuse amaxabiso ngenxa yokuncitshiswa kobonelelo. Kwelinye icala, ukuhla kwemfuno ngenxa yokutshintsha kwefashoni okanye ukudodobala koqoqosho kunokukhokelela ekwehleni kwamaxabiso.
2. Ukuseka into eqinileyo cwangciso so shishino linyathelo elilandelayo. Oku kubandakanya ukubeka iinjongo zakho zemali, ukumisela ukunyamezela kwakho umngcipheko, kunye nokwenza isigqibo ngesicwangciso sakho sokurhweba. Ingaba ukhetha ukuhamba ixesha elide, ukubheja kumaxabiso ukunyuka, okanye ukufutshane, ukuqikelela ukuwa, kuya kuxhomekeka kuhlalutyo lwakho lwemarike kunye nomngcipheko wokutya.
3. Ukukhetha iqonga lokurhweba elifanelekileyo lelinye inyathelo elibalulekileyo. Jonga iiplatifomu ezinikezela ngedatha yexesha langempela, izixhobo ezibanzi zokuhlalutya iimarike, kunye nenkxaso ethembekileyo yabathengi. Kwakhona, qwalasela imirhumo yeqonga kunye nokukhululeka kokurhoxiswa kwemali.
4. Education kunye nokufunda okuqhubekayo ayinakugqithiswa kwi-cotton yorhwebo. Hlala uhlaziywa ngeendaba zomqhaphu wehlabathi, yiya kwiiwebinars, uthathe inxaxheba kwiiforam zorhwebo, kwaye ungathandabuzi ukufuna iingcebiso kumava angaphezulu. traders. Khumbula, wonke trader iqale njengesaqalayo, kwaye lonke uhambo oluyimpumelelo luqala ngenyathelo elinye.
5. Ukuziqhelanisa kwenza ukuba uphumelele. Cinga ngokuqala ngeakhawunti yedemo ukuze uzive uguquguquka kwimarike ngaphandle kokufaka imali yokwenyani emngciphekweni. Oku kuya kukunceda uqonde indlela izinto ezahlukeneyo ezichaphazela ngayo amaxabiso ekotoni kunye nendlela yokusabela ngokufanelekileyo.
6. Umonde noqeqesho Ngamahlakani akho angcono kolu hambo. Imarike yomqhaphu, njengayo nayiphi na enye imarike yorhwebo, inokuguquguquka. Kubalulekile ukuba ungavumeli iimvakalelo ziqhube izigqibo zakho zokurhweba. Namathela kwisicwangciso sakho, hlala unomonde, kwaye ukhumbule, imarike ihlala ilungile.

2.1. Ukuqonda i-Cotton Market Dynamics

Ukubamba i-dynamics ye-cotton market kufana nokuba nobuchule bokwenza isingqisho somdaniso ontsonkothileyo. Inyathelo ngalinye, i-twirl nganye, unqumamo ngalunye lunenjongo, kunye nokuqonda loo njongo ngundoqo ekujongeni imarike ngempumelelo.

Imarike yomqhaphu, njengayo nayiphi na enye imarike yorhwebo, iphenjelelwa zizinto ezininzi. Unikezo nemfuno I-dynamics idlala indima ebalulekileyo ekumiseleni amaxabiso e-cotton. Isityalo somqhaphu esikhulu kumazwe avelisa kakhulu afana ne-United States, i-China, okanye i-Indiya kunokukhokelela ekuthengeni okugqithisileyo emarikeni, kuthobe amaxabiso ezantsi. Ngokuchaseneyo, isivuno esibi ngenxa yeemeko zemozulu ezingentle okanye uhlaselo lwezinambuzane ezitshabalalisayo lunokubangela ukunqongophala kobonelelo, okubangela ukuba amaxabiso anyuke.

Iimeko zoqoqosho zehlabathi nazo zinempembelelo ebalulekileyo kwimarike yomqhaphu. Ngamaxesha okukhula kwezoqoqosho, imfuno yeemveliso ezisekelwe kumqhaphu ezifana nempahla kunye nempahla yasekhaya ithande ukunyuka, i-buoying amaxabiso e-cotton. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngexesha lokuhla kwezoqoqosho, imfuno yezi mveliso ihlala iwa, ekhokelela kumaxabiso aphantsi ekotoni.

Imigaqo-nkqubo kaRhulumente kumazwe avelisa umqhaphu kunye natyayo nawo angakwazi ukuguqula imarike. Iinkxaso-mali, iirhafu, izithintelo zokuthumela ngaphandle, kunye nezinye trade imigaqo-nkqubo inokuchaphazela ibhalansi yokubonelela kunye nemfuno, kwaye kwakhona, amaxabiso ekotoni.

2.2. Amanyathelo okuqalisa uRhwebo lweCotton

Ukuqalisa uhambo lwakho lokurhweba ngomqhaphu kubandakanya amanyathelo ambalwa abalulekileyo. Okokuqala kwaye ngaphambi kwento yonke, zifundise. Urhwebo lomqhaphu lungaphezu kokuthenga nokuthengisa; imalunga nokuqonda iintshukumo ezintsonkothileyo zemarike. Funda iincwadi, uye kwiisemina, kwaye ulandele iindaba zeshishini ukuze uhlale unolwazi.

• Okulandelayo, khetha ethembekileyo broker. Lakho broker lisango lakho lokuya emarikeni, ke qiniseka ukuba zithembekile kwaye zilawulwa. Njonga i brokers ezibonelela ngenkonzo elungileyo yabathengi, amaqonga orhwebo aphambili, kunye neentlawulo zokhuphiswano.
• Emveni kwalonto, ukuphuhlisa isicwangciso sorhwebo esomeleleyo. Isicwangciso sakho kufuneka sisekelwe kuphando olubanzi lweemarike kunye nohlalutyo. Kufuneka ichaze iinjongo zakho zokurhweba, ukunyamezela umngcipheko, kunye neendlela ezikhethiweyo zokurhweba.
• Qala ngeakhawunti yedemo ngaphambi kokuntywila kurhwebo oluphilayo. Oku kuya kukuvumela ukuba usebenzise izicwangciso zakho ngaphandle kokubeka umngcipheko kwimali yokwenyani. Kwakhona yindlela entle yokuziqhelanisa neqonga lokurhweba.
• Beka iliso kwimarike rhoqo. Gcina iliso kwizinto ezinokuchaphazela amaxabiso ekotoni, njengeemeko zemozulu, iziganeko ze-geopolitical, kunye nezalathi zezoqoqosho.
• Kukufunda eep. Imarike ihlala itshintsha, kwaye kufuneka ulwazi lwakho kunye nezicwangciso zakho. Hlala uhlaziywa ngeendlela zamva nje kunye nophuhliso kwishishini lomqhaphu.

Khumbula, ukurhweba komqhaphu kufuna umonde, uqeqesho, kunye neliso elibukhali leenkcukacha. Ayisonkqubo yokutyeba ngokukhawuleza, kodwa ngendlela efanelekileyo kunye nengqondo, inokuba liphulo elinomvuzo.

3. Ubuchule boBuchule bokuRhweba ngomqhaphu

Ukurhweba komqhaphu, njengazo naziphi na ezinye izinto zokurhweba, kufuna ukuqonda okunzulu kokutshintsha kweemarike kunye nesicwangciso esenziwe kakuhle. Impumelelo kwintengiso yekotoni ubukhulu becala kuxhomekeke kubuchule bakho bokufunda kunye nokutolika imiqondiso yemarike ngokuchanekileyo. Enye yezona ndlela zisebenzayo zibandakanya ukulandelela i unikezo nemfuno amanqanaba ekotoni.

Esi sicwangciso sisekelwe kumgaqo osisiseko wezoqoqosho wokuba xa unikezelo ludlula imfuno, amaxabiso ehle, kwaye xa imfuno ingaphezu kokubonelela, amaxabiso anyuka. Ngokubeka iliso elibukhali kumanqanaba emveliso yekotoni kunye namazinga okusetyenziswa emhlabeni jikelele, unokuqikelela ukunyakaza kwexabiso kwaye wenze izigqibo zokurhweba ezinolwazi.

Esinye isicwangciso sijikeleza iipatheni zemozulu kwimimandla evelisa umqhaphu omkhulu. Ekubeni ikotoni isityalo esinobunzima bemozulu, naluphi na utshintsho oluphawulekayo kwiimeko zemozulu lunokuchaphazela izivuno zekotoni kwaye emva koko, amaxabiso. Umzekelo, ixesha elongeziweyo lembalela kummandla omkhulu ovelisa umqhaphu unokunciphisa unikezelo lomqhaphu, lubangele ukuba amaxabiso anyuke.

Uhlalutyo technical sesinye isicwangciso esingundoqo esinokukunceda ukuba uqikelele ukunyakaza kwexabiso elizayo ngokusekelwe kwidatha yemarike yangaphambili. Oku kubandakanya ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo ezahlukeneyo kunye nezalathisi ezifana nee-avareji ezihambayo, imigca yentsingiselo, kunye Fibonacci retracements ukuchonga amathuba okurhweba anokubakho.

Gqi beleni, uhlalutyo oluphambili inokubonelela ngeembono ezixabisekileyo kwimpilo yonke yemarike yekotoni. Oku kubandakanya ukuphonononga uluhlu olubanzi lwezalathisi zoqoqosho, kubandakanywa izinga lokukhula kwe-GDP, amazinga okunyuka kwamaxabiso, kunye namanani engqesho, ukulinganisa imfuno epheleleyo yomqhaphu.

Khumbula, akukho sicwangciso esinye esinokuqinisekisa impumelelo kwintengiso yomqhaphu. Kubalulekile ukusebenzisa indibaniselwano yezi zicwangciso kwaye uhlengahlengise ngokuqhubekayo indlela yakho yokusebenza ngokusekelwe kwiimeko zemarike.

ulwazi sesona sixhobo sakho sinamandla kwihlabathi lorhwebo lomqhaphu. Hlala unolwazi, hlala ubhetyebhetye, kwaye uhlale uphambi komdlalo.

3.1. Uhlalutyo olusisiseko kuRhwebo lweCotton

Xa kuziwa ekurhwebeni kwekotoni, umntu akanakujongela phantsi ukubaluleka uhlalutyo oluphambili. Le ndlela yovavanyo ibalulekile ekuqondeni ixabiso elingaphakathi lomqhaphu njengempahla yorhwebo. Kubandakanya ukuhlolisiswa ngenyameko kweentlobo ezahlukeneyo izalathisi zoqoqosho kunye nezinto zentengiso ezinokuchaphazela ixabiso lomqhaphu.

Njengokuba, iipatheni zemozulu dlala indima ebalulekileyo kwimveliso yomqhaphu. Iimeko zemozulu ezingentle njengembalela okanye imvula eninzi kakhulu inokukhokelela kwisivuno esibi, ngaloo ndlela kuncitshiswe ukubonelelwa komqhaphu emarikeni. Oku kunqongophala kunganyusa ixabiso lomqhaphu.

Ngokufanayo, uzinzo kwezopolitiko kumazwe avelisa umqhaphu yenye into emayiqwalaselwe. Ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko okanye utshintsho kwi trade imigaqo-nkqubo inokuphazamisa ikhonkco lokubonelela, nto leyo inokuchaphazela ukufumaneka kunye nexabiso lekotoni.

Iindlela zoqoqosho kwakhona abe nempembelelo ngqo kumaxabiso umqhaphu. Uqoqosho oluqhuba kakuhle ludla ngokukhokelela ekwandeni kwemfuno yomqhaphu, njengoko usetyenziswa kakhulu kwimizi-mveliso eyahlukeneyo efana nempahla, impahla yasekhaya, kunye nokuvelisa. Ngokuchasene noko, ukuhla kwezoqoqosho kunokukhokelela ekunciphiseni kwemfuno, kubangele ukuhla kwamaxabiso ekotoni.

Gqibela, i amandla edola yaseMelika yenye into ephambili emayiqwalaselwe. Ekubeni umqhaphu unjalo traded kwiidola zaseMelika kwihlabathi jikelele, idola eyomeleleyo inokwenza umqhaphu ubize kakhulu kubathengi bangaphandle, okunokukhokelela ekwehleni kwemfuno.

Ngokuqonda ezi zinto zisisiseko, traders banokwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi ngakumbi kwaye banokwandisa amathuba abo okuphumelela kwimarike yomqhaphu. Khumbula nje ukuba, ngelixa uhlalutyo olusisiseko lunika ukuqonda okubalulekileyo, kufuneka lusetyenziswe ngokudibeneyo nolunye izicwangciso zorhwebo kwiziphumo ezifanelekileyo.

3.2. Uhlalutyo lobuGcisa kwiRhwebo yoMqhaphu

Kwihlabathi lorhwebo lomqhaphu, uhlalutyo yobugcisa idlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuqikeleleni iintshukumo zamaxabiso kwixesha elizayo. Olu hlalutyo lusekelwe kwisifundo sedatha yemarike yangaphambili, ngokuyinhloko ixabiso kunye nomthamo. Umgaqo ongundoqo emva kwale ndlela kukuba i-psychology yemarike ichaphazela ukurhweba ngendlela eyenza ukuba kuqikelelwe xa amaxabiso ekotoni aya kunyuka okanye awe.

Enye yeendlela eziqhelekileyo zohlalutyo lobugcisa kwi-cotton yorhwebo kukusetyenziswa Iitshathi zetafile. Ezi tshathi zinikeza ukubonakaliswa okubonakalayo kweentshukumo zexabiso kwixesha elithile, livumela traders ukuchonga iipateni kunye nentsingiselo. Umzekelo, 'i-bullish' iphethini yesikhanyiso ingabonisa ukuthambekela okunyukayo, iphakamisa ukuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga, ngelixa iphethini ye-'bearish' ingabonakalisa ukuhla, ebonisa ukuba lixesha lokuthengisa.

Ngaphandle kweetshathi zekhandlela, traders kwakhona sebenzisa ezahlukeneyo Iimpawu zobugcisa ukunceda ukumisela iintshukumo zamaxabiso ezinokubakho. Oku kuquka iMiyinge yokuHamba (MA), Relative Index Ukomelela (RSI), Kunye Bollinger Iibhendi. I-MA yi-trend-ilandela okanye isalathisi 'esisemva' kuba isekelwe kumaxabiso adlulileyo. I-RSI, kwelinye icala, i ngesantya i-oscillator elinganisa isantya kunye nokutshintsha kweentshukumo zexabiso. Iibhendi zeBollinger zizibhendi eziguqukayo ezibekwe ngasentla nangaphantsi umlinganiselo ohambayo, apho ukuguquguquka kwanda, iibhendi zikhula kwaye xa ukuguquguquka kuncipha, iibhendi ziyancipha.

Ukubuyiselwa kweFibonacci sesinye isixhobo esisetyenziswa ngokubanzi sohlalutyo lobugcisa kwintengiso yomqhaphu. Traders sebenzisa esi sixhobo ukuchonga amanqanaba anokubakho enkxaso kunye nokuchasana ngokuzoba imigca ethe tye kumanqanaba eFibonacci angama-23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, kunye ne-100%.

Eyona nto, uhlalutyo lobugcisa kwi-cotton yorhwebo yindlela yokwenza izinto ezixhobisayo traders kunye nezixhobo ukuqikelela iintshukumo ixabiso elizayo. Ngumxube wobugcisa kunye nenzululwazi, efuna izakhono zokuhlalutya kunye ne-intuition. Nangona kungenangqondo, iyabonelela tradekunye nesiseko esiluqilima sokwenza izigqibo ezizizo. Khumbula, isitshixo sorhwebo oluyimpumelelo silele ekuqondeni nasekusebenziseni ngempumelelo ezi zixhobo kunye nobuchule.

3.3. Ulawulo loMngcipheko kwiRhwebo lomqhaphu

Ehlabathini lokurhweba komqhaphu, ulawulo lomngcipheko yi-linchpin ebambe isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba kunye. Oku kuyinyani ngakumbi xa usebenza nempahla eguquguqukayo njengomqhaphu. Isinyathelo sokuqala ekulawuleni umngcipheko kwintengiso yekotoni kukuqonda izinto ezichaphazela amaxabiso ekotoni. Oku kuquka iimeko zemozulu, iimeko zoqoqosho zehlabathi, notshintsho kwimigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente.

Iimeko zemozulu ingaba nempembelelo enkulu kwimveliso yekotoni. Ixesha lonyaka elomileyo lingakhokelela kwisivuno esibi, nto leyo enyusa amaxabiso womqhaphu ngenxa yokuhla kwemveliso. Kwelinye icala, iimeko zemozulu ezifanelekileyo zinokukhokelela kwisivuno esikhulu, nto leyo ebangela ukuba amaxabiso ehle ngenxa yokunyuka kobonelelo. Ngokuhlala unolwazi malunga neengqikelelo zemozulu kwiindawo eziphambili zokuvelisa ikotoni, unokuqikelela ukunyakaza kwexabiso kunye nokulungelelanisa isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba ngokufanelekileyo.

Iintsingiselo zoqoqosho lwehlabathi ikwadlala indima ebalulekileyo kumaxabiso womqhaphu. Xa uqoqosho lukhula, imfuno yomqhaphu ithande ukwanda njengoko abathengi benengeniso ethe chatha yokuchitha kwiimveliso ezenziwe ngomqhaphu. Ngokuchasene noko, ngexesha lokudodobala koqoqosho, imfuno yomqhaphu idla ngokuhla, nto leyo ekhokelela kumaxabiso aphantsi. Ngoko ke, ukubeka iliso kwiimpawu zezoqoqosho kunokukunceda ukuba uqikelele intsingiselo yexabiso lekotoni elizayo.

Gqi beleni, utshintsho kwimigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente ingaba nempembelelo enkulu kumaxabiso ekotoni. Ngokomzekelo, utshintsho kwi trade imigaqo-nkqubo inokunyusa okanye inciphise imfuno yomqhaphu, echaphazela ixabiso layo. Ngokufanayo, utshintsho kwimigaqo-nkqubo yezolimo lunokuchaphazela ukunikezelwa kwekotoni, ngaloo ndlela kube nefuthe kwixabiso layo. Ngokuhlala unolwazi malunga neenguqu zomgaqo-nkqubo kumazwe aphambili avelisa ikotoni kunye nokutya, unokukulindela ngcono ukuguquguquka kwexabiso kunye nokulawula umngcipheko wakho ngokufanelekileyo.

Ukongeza ekuqondeni ezi zinto, ukulawulwa kwengozi eyimpumelelo kwi-cotton yokuthengisa kubandakanya ukusebenzisa izixhobo ezahlukeneyo zokulawula umngcipheko. Ezi ziquka stop-ilahleko odolo, ezithengisa ngokuzenzekelayo izivumelwano zakho zekotoni xa amaxabiso afikelela kwinqanaba elithile, kwaye uthango, okubandakanya ukuthatha isikhundla kwimarike ehambelanayo ukuze kulungiswe ilahleko enokwenzeka kwimarike yekotoni. Ngokusebenzisa ezi zixhobo, unokukhusela inkunzi yakho yokurhweba kwaye ukwandise amathuba akho okuphumelela kwimarike yekotoni.

4. Imixholo ePhambili kwi-Cotton Trading

Njengoko uphanda nzulu kwihlabathi lokurhweba komqhaphu, kukho izihloko ezimbalwa eziphambili ezifanele ukuphononongwa. Iikontrakthi zekamva zisisiseko sorhwebo lwekotoni. Ezi zivumelwano zibophelela ngokusemthethweni ukuthenga okanye ukuthengisa umqhaphu kwixesha elizayo zibonelela abathengi kunye nabathengisi ngomlinganiselo wozinzo lwexabiso. Nangona kunjalo, bazisa umgangatho womngcipheko, njengoko amaxabiso emarike anokutshintsha ngokungalindelekanga.

• Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso, enyanisweni, yenye inkalo ephambili yokurhweba komqhaphu. Izinto ezahlukeneyo zinokuchaphazela amaxabiso womqhaphu, ukusuka kutshintsho kwiipateni zemozulu ezichaphazela izivuno zezityalo ukuya kwiinguqu kwimfuno yehlabathi. Ukuqonda ukuba ezi zinto zisebenzisana njani kunokukunceda ukuba ulindele utshintsho lwamaxabiso kwaye wenze izigqibo zokurhweba ezinolwazi ngakumbi.
• Amandla emarike yehlabathi ikwadlala indima ebalulekileyo ekurhwebeni komqhaphu. Umqhaphu lishishini lehlabathi, kwaye utshintsho kummandla omnye wehlabathi lunokuguquguquka kwiimarike. Umzekelo, isityalo somqhaphu esikhulu eIndiya sinokuthoba amaxabiso ehlabathi, sibe nefuthe traders kwihlabathi jikelele.
• Izinto ezintsonkothileyo zekhonkco lonikezelo sesinye isihloko esiphambili kwintengiso yomqhaphu. Uhambo olusuka kwibala lomqhaphu ukuya kwimveliso egqityiweyo lude kwaye luntsonkothile, lubandakanya abalimi, abaqalayo, abaphonononga, abaluki, kunye nabathengisi. Ikhonkco nganye kwikhonkco inokuchaphazela ixabiso kunye nokufumaneka kwekotoni.
• Ringqwalaselo yolawulo ingaba nempembelelo enkulu ekurhwebeni komqhaphu. Ukusuka kwinkxaso yezolimo ukuya trade amaxabiso, imigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente inokuchaphazela kakhulu imarike yomqhaphu. Ukuhlala unolwazi lwale migaqo kunokukunceda ukuba uhambe kwindawo yokurhweba ngekotoni ngokufanelekileyo.

Ezi zihloko eziphambili zibonelela ngokuqonda okunzulu kobunzima borhwebo lwekotoni. Ngokuziqonda kakuhle ezi ndawo, unokuthatha i-acumen yakho yokuthengisa ikotoni ukuya kwinqanaba elilandelayo.

4.1. Ikamva lomqhaphu kunye noKhetho

Ikamva lomqhaphu kunye nokhetho ukurhweba lihlabathi elinika umdla elinika intaphane yamathuba okuba traders. Njengenye yezona zinto zibalulekileyo zorhwebo ezithambileyo kwihlabathi, umqhaphu unorhwebo olukhulu lwehlabathi oluphenjelelwa zizinto ezahlukeneyo.

lekusasa zikhontrakthi ezibophelela umthengi ukuba athenge, kunye nomthengisi ukuba athengise, isixa esithile somqhaphu ngexabiso elimiselweyo ngomhla ozayo. Ezi zivumelwano zisemgangathweni ngokutshintshiselana, oku kuthetha ukuba iinkcukacha ezinjengomgangatho wekotoni, ubuninzi, kunye nomhla wokuhanjiswa zibekwe kwangaphambili. Oku kubekwa emgangathweni kwenza izivumelwano zexesha elizayo zibe manzi kakhulu, zivumela traders ukuthenga nokuthengisa ngokulula.

iinketho kwelinye icala, unike umthengi ilungelo, kodwa hayi uxanduva, ukuthenga okanye ukuthengisa isixa esithile somqhaphu ngexabiso elimiselweyo ngaphakathi kwexesha elimiselweyo. Oku bhetyebhetye kwenza iinketho ukhetho ethandwayo traders abafuna ukubiyela umngcipheko wabo okanye baqikelele ngeentshukumo zamaxabiso.

Ixabiso lexesha elizayo lekotoni kunye neenketho liphenjelelwa yizinto ezahlukeneyo, kubandakanywa neemeko zemozulu, amanqanaba okuvelisa emhlabeni jikelele, kunye nokutshintsha kwemfuno. Ngokomzekelo, isivuno esibi ngenxa yeemeko zemozulu ezimbi sinokukhokelela ekunciphiseni ukubonelela, okubangela ukuba amaxabiso anyuke.

Traders ingathatha intengisovantage koku kuguquguquka kwexabiso ngokuthenga okuphantsi kunye nokuthengisa okuphezulu, okanye ngokuchaseneyo. Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba ukurhweba kwikamva lomqhaphu kunye neenketho kubandakanya inqanaba eliphezulu lomngcipheko, njengoko amaxabiso anokuguquguquka ngokukhawuleza ngexesha elifutshane. Ke ngoko, kubalulekile ukuba ube nokuqonda okuqinileyo kwemarike kunye nokusebenzisa iindlela zokulawula umngcipheko ukukhusela utyalo-mali lwakho.

Ukongeza kurhwebo lwekamva lomntu ngamnye kunye neekhontrakthi zokukhetha, traders inokusebenzisa kwakhona ukuthengisa ukusasazeka izicwangciso. Oku kubandakanya ukuthenga kunye nokuthengisa izivumelwano ezimbini ezahlukeneyo ngaxeshanye ukuthatha intengisovantage Umahluko wamaxabiso. Umzekelo, a trader unokuthenga ikhontrakthi yekamva lomqhaphu yokuhanjiswa ngoJulayi kwaye uthengise isivumelwano sokuhanjiswa ngoDisemba, ngethemba lokufumana inzuzo kumahluko wexabiso phakathi kwezivumelwano ezimbini.

Nokuba unamava trader okanye ukuqala nje, ikamva lomqhaphu kunye neenketho zibonelela ngemarike eguqukayo nenomdla enamathuba amaninzi okwenza inzuzo. Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukwenza umsebenzi wakho wasekhaya kwaye uqonde ingozi ngaphambi kokuba ungene.

4.2. Ii-ETF zomqhaphu kunye CFDs

Xa sele ulungele ukwahlula ipotifoliyo yakho yokurhweba kwaye ungene kwihlabathi leemveliso, qwalasela ukubanakho Ii-ETF zomqhaphu kunye CFDs. Ezi zixhobo zemali zinika indlela ekhethekileyo yokuthatha inxaxheba kwimarike yekotoni ngaphandle kwesidingo sokugcinwa ngokomzimba okanye ukuhanjiswa.

UkutshintshiselanaTraded Iimali (ETFs) ziimali zotyalo-mali kunye notshintshiselwano-traded iimveliso ezilandelela ixabiso lomqhaphu. ETF zi traded kutshintshiselwano lwesitokhwe, okwenza ukuba bafikeleleke kuluhlu olubanzi lwabatyali-mali. Banikezela ngentengisovantage yokukwazi ukuthenga nokuthengisa izabelo kwingxowa-mali njengokuba ubuya kwenza ngesitokhwe esiqhelekileyo, ukubonelela utywala nokuba bhetyebhetye.

Izivumelwano zokungafani (CFDs) kwelinye icala, ziimveliso eziphuma kwi-derivative ezikuvumela ukuba uqikelele kwiintshukumo zexabiso lomqhaphu ngaphandle kokuba ne-asethi ephantsi. Oku kuthetha ukuba unokufumana inzuzo kuzo zombini iimarike ezikhulayo nezihlayo. Nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela oko CFD ukurhweba kubandakanya inqanaba eliphezulu lomngcipheko ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kwe-leverage, kwaye isenokungafaneleki kubo bonke abatyali-mali.

Njengaso nasiphi na isicwangciso sorhwebo, kubalulekile ukwenza uphando olucokisekileyo kwaye uqonde iingozi ezibandakanyekayo phambi kokuba utyale imali Ii-ETF zomqhaphu kunye CFDs. Qwalasela izinto ezifana neemeko zemarike zangoku, iintsingiselo zamaxabiso embali, kunye nefuthe leziganeko zoqoqosho lwehlabathi kushishino lomqhaphu. Gcina ukhumbule ukuba ngelixa ukurhweba komqhaphu kunokuba nenzuzo, akukho mngcipheko. Ngokunjalo, isoloko ingumbono olungileyo ukufuna iingcebiso zobungcali ukuba umtsha kolu hlobo lorhwebo.