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Best Lagging Isikhokelo Guide

Ilinganiswe 4.3 ngaphandle kwe5
4.3 kwi 5 iinkwenkwezi (4 iivoti)

Izikhombisi ezihambayo zixhobo ezibalulekileyo kuhlalutyo lwezoqoqosho kunye nezezimali, ukubonelela ngengqiqo kuqoqosho kunye neemarike zemali emva kokuba utshintsho sele lwenzekile. Ngokuqwalasela imisebenzi yangaphambili kunye nokusebenza, ezi zalathi, ezifana nezinga lokungaqeshwa, ukukhula kwe-GDP, kunye nemivuzo yenkampani, kunceda ukuqinisekisa iintsingiselo kunye nokwazisa izigqibo ezizayo. Eli nqaku lijolise ekunikezeni isikhokelo esibanzi ekuqondeni izikhombisi ezibambekayo. Masiqalise

ZiiZalathi zokuLagging

💡 Izinto ezibalulekileyo ezithathwayo

  1. Izalathisi eziLaggingyo zibonelela ngeRetrospective Insights: Ngokungafaniyo nezixhobo zokuxela kwangaphambili, izikhombisi ze-lagging zinika ukuqonda okubalulekileyo kwiindlela zezoqoqosho nezemali emva kokuba zenzekile. Le mbono ijonge ngasemva ibalulekile ekuqinisekiseni iziphumo zemisebenzi yangaphambili kunye nezigqibo, ukwenza izalathi ezishiyekileyo zibaluleke kakhulu kuvavanyo lwempilo yezoqoqosho kunye nokusebenza kweshishini.
  2. Ukudityaniswa nezinye izalathisi kuyaluphucula uhlalutyo: Ukudibanisa izikhombisi ezibambekayo kunye nezikhombisi ezihamba phambili kunye nezihambelanayo kudala isakhelo esibanzi sohlalutyo. Oku kudityaniswa kuvumela ukuqonda okuqinileyo kweemeko zoqoqosho kunye neemarike, okwenza abachaphazelekayo baqinisekise iintsingiselo, ukuvavanya ukusebenza kwezenzo ezidlulileyo, kunye nokwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi malunga nekamva.
  3. Ukuqonda imida kubalulekile: Ngelixa izikhombisi ezibambekayo zizixhobo ezixabisekileyo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukulinganiselwa kwazo, kubandakanywa amandla okujonga emva, impembelelo yezinto zangaphandle ezingalindelekanga, kunye nesidingo sokuqokelelwa kwedatha echanekileyo kunye nokutolika. Ukuvuma le mida kuqinisekisa uhlalutyo oluchanekileyo noluthembekileyo.
  4. Isicelo esiCwangcisiweyo Sazisa iZigqibo zexesha elizayo: Ukusetyenziswa kobuchule bezalathi ezisemva kunokukhokela imigaqo-nkqubo yezoqoqosho yexesha elizayo, izicwangciso zotyalo-mali, kunye nocwangciso loshishino. Ngokuqonda nokufunda kwixesha elidlulileyo, abenzi bezigqibo banokujonga imiceli mngeni kunye namathuba exesha elizayo ngokuzithemba okukhulu nangokuchaneka.
  5. Uthethathethwano oluZinzileyo kunye nokufunda zizinto eziphambili: Ubume bezemali noqoqosho buhlala buguquka, nto leyo eyenza kube yimfuneko ukuba abachaphazelekayo bahlale bebandakanyeka kwaye benolwazi. Ukusebenzisa ngokusebenzayo kunye nokutolika izikhombisi ezibambekayo, ngelixa uhlala unolwazi kubuchule obutsha bokuhlalutya kunye nophuhliso lweemarike, uxhobisa abantu kunye nemibutho ukuba benze ukhetho olunolwazi olungcono.

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1. Isishwankathelo seSalathi sokuLagging

1.1. Yintoni izikhombisi?

Kwinkalo entsonkothileyo yezemali noqoqosho, Iimpawu zisebenza njengezixhobo ezibalulekileyo ezibonelela ngokuqonda kwindlela yokusebenza, impilo, kunye nomkhombandlela wexesha elizayo woqoqosho kunye neemarike zemali. Ezi zalathi, ukusukela Qoqosho ukuba emali iimethrikhi, abachaphazelekayo abancedisayo-ukusuka kubenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo ukuya kubatyali-mali-ukwenza izigqibo ezinolwazi. Iimpawu zoqoqosho, umzekelo, zinokutyhila impilo yonke yoqoqosho, ngelixa izikhombisi zemali zinokujolisa kancinci kwiindlela zentengiso okanye ukusebenza kwenkampani.

Izikhombisi ezihambayo ludidi oluthile lwezalathi ezigqamayo kuphawu lwazo lokuqinisekisa endaweni yokuqikelela iintsingiselo. Ngokungafaniyo noogxa babo bokuxela kwangaphambili, izikhombisi ezibambekayo zibonelela ngembono ebuyela emva, zibenza baxabiseke ekuqinisekiseni iipateni kunye neendlela esele zihamba. Ngokuqhelekileyo zijongwa emva kweenguqu ezibalulekileyo zezoqoqosho, zisebenza njengesixhobo sokuqinisekisa kubahlalutyi kunye nabenzi bezigqibo.

Izikhombisi eziLagging

1.3. Isizathu Sokuba Zibalulekile

Ukubaluleka kwezalathi ezisikekileyo kukukwazi ukubonelela ngomfanekiso ocacileyo wempilo yezoqoqosho neyezemali emva kokuba utshintsho lwenzekile. Ngokuhlalutya ezi zalathisi, iingcali zinokuqonda ngcono ukusebenza kwezigqibo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo edlulileyo, ukwazisa ikamva qhinga kunye nohlengahlengiso. Le ndlela yokujonga umva ibalulekile kuhlalutyo olubanzi lwemijikelo yoqoqosho kunye neentshukumo zemarike.

Icandelo Gxi ninisa
Yintoni izikhombisi? Ushwankathelo lwezalathi zezoqoqosho nezemali
Ngena izalathisi zokuLagging Intshayelelo yezalathisi ezishiyekileyo kunye neempawu zazo
Isizathu Sokuba Zibalulekile Ixabiso lezalathi ezishiyekileyo kuhlalutyo
Isikhokelo sakho Injongo yesithuba

2. Ukutyhilwa kweZalathi zokuLagging

Izikhombisi ezihambayo ngamanani alandela isiganeko sezoqoqosho. Ziyatshintsha emva kokuba uqoqosho lulonke sele luqalisile ukulandela umkhwa othile. Ezi zalathi zixabisekile ngenxa yokukwazi kwabo ukunika ubungqina beendlela zexesha elide kunye neziphumo zemisebenzi yezoqoqosho. Umzekelo, i izinga lokungasebenzi kwaye Ukukhula kwe-GDP zizalathisi zokuqhwalela ezinqabileyo. Izinga lentswela-ngqesho lithande ukwehla emva kokuba uqoqosho sele luqalisile ukuchacha. Ngokufanayo, amanani okukhula kwe-GDP akhululwa emva kokuphela kwekota, ebonelela ngembono ejonge ngasemva ekusebenzeni kwezoqoqosho.

2.1. Yintoni ixesha Lag

Ingqikelelo "yexesha lag" ingundoqo ekuqondeni izikhombisi ze-lagging. Oku kulibaziseka lixesha eliphakathi kokwenzeka kanye kwemisebenzi yezoqoqosho kunye nexesha impembelelo yazo ibonwa kwizalathi. Umzekelo, utshintsho kwiqondo lokungaphangeli lubonisa izigqibo kunye notshintsho kuqoqosho olwenzeka kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo. Oku kulibaziseka kwenza ukuba izikhombisi ezishiyekileyo zingabi luncedo ekucingeni iintsingiselo zexesha elizayo kodwa zixabiseke kakhulu ekuqinisekiseni nasekuqondeni ezedlulileyo.

Kubalulekile ukwahlula izalathi ezishiyekileyo ukusuka kwezinye iindidi, ezifana izikhokelo ezikhokelayo kwaye izalathisi ezihambelanayo. Iimpawu eziphambili, njengembuyekezo yemarike yemasheya kunye neemvume ezintsha zezindlu, zibonelela ngembono engaphambili kwicala apho uqoqosho okanye iimarike zinokusingisa. Izibonakaliso ezizenzekelayo, ezifana neentengiso zentengiso kunye nengeniso yomntu, zitshintsha ngokukhawuleza ngexesha elifanayo noqoqosho okanye umjikelo wezoshishino, ukubonelela nge-snapshot yangoku. Ukuqonda lo mahluko ngundoqo ekusebenziseni uhlobo ngalunye lwesalathisi ngokufanelekileyo kuhlalutyo lwezoqoqosho kunye nezezimali.

Isiqendu umxholo
inkcazelo Ingcaciso yezalathi ezisemva ngemizekelo efana nezinga lentswela-ngqesho kunye nokukhula kweGDP
UkuLala Kwexesha Kuchaziwe Ingxoxo ngolibaziseko phakathi kwemisebenzi yezoqoqosho kunye nokubonakaliswa kwayo kwizalathi ezisemva
Ayizizo zonke iizalathi ezidalwe ngokulinganayo Umahluko phakathi kokusilela, ukukhokela, kunye nezalathi ezihambelanayo

3. Ujoliso olusondeleyo kwiZalathi zokuLagging eziPhambili

3.1. Iimpawu zoQoqosho:

3.1.1. Inqanaba lokungaphangeli:

  • Ukuqonda imetriki kunye nokubaluleka kwayo. Umlinganiselo wentswela-ngqesho ulinganisa ipesenti yabasebenzi abangenamisebenzi nabafuna umsebenzi. Sisalathisi esibalulekileyo sempilo yezoqoqosho, ebonisa ubukho bemisebenzi kunye nenqanaba lemisebenzi yezoqoqosho. Ukunyuka kwezinga lentswela-ngqesho kudla ngokunxulunyaniswa nokudodobala kwezoqoqosho, ngelixa ukwehla kwezinga lokukhula koqoqosho nempilo.
  • Indlela eqinisekisa ngayo amandla ezoqoqosho (ukusilela). Kuba izinga lentswela-ngqesho lidla ngokuhla emva kokuba uqoqosho luqalise ukuchacha, lusebenza njengesiqinisekiso samandla ezoqoqosho okanye ukuchacha. Abaqeshi basenokuthandabuza ukuqesha bade bazithembe ngecala lezoqoqosho, nto leyo ebangela ukuba izinga lentswela-ngqesho libe ngumqondiso osilelayo wempilo yezoqoqosho.

3.1.2. UHlumo lweMveliso yeLizwe eliPheleleyo (i-GDP):

  • Ukuchaza i-GDP kunye nokubaluleka kwayo. I-GDP imele ixabiso lemarike lilonke lazo zonke iimpahla neenkonzo eziveliswe elizweni ngexesha elithile. Ngumlinganiselo obanzi wemveliso yasekhaya iyonke kunye nophawu oluphambili lwempilo yezoqoqosho.
  • Ibonelela njani ngemibono yokusebenza kwembali (ishiyekileyo). Amanani okukhula kwe-GDP, axelwe ngekota, abonisa imisebenzi yoqoqosho yexesha elidlulileyo. Ukunyuka kwe-GDP kubonisa ukukhula koqoqosho kunye nokuchuma, ngelixa i-GDP ehlayo ibonisa ukucutha. Ngenxa yokuba la manani eqokelelwe aze axelwe emva kokwenzeka kwenyani, athathwa njengezalathi zokuqhwalela, eziqinisekisa umkhombandlela wezoqoqosho emva kotshintsho olwenzekileyo.

3.1.3. Isalathiso seXabiso loMthengi (CPI):

  • echaza ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nomlinganiselo wayo ngeCPI. I-CPI ilinganisa umndilili wotshintsho ngokuhamba kwexesha kumaxabiso ahlawulwe ngabathengi basezidolophini ngebhaskithi yemarike yempahla neenkonzo zabathengi. Sesinye sezona zalathi zijongwe kakhulu zokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ezibonisa utshintsho kwiindleko zokuphila.
  • Indlela i-CPI iqinisekisa ngayo utshintsho oludlulileyo kumandla okuthenga (i-lagging). Idatha ye-CPI ikhutshwa inyanga nenyanga kodwa ibonisa utshintsho lwexabiso esele lwenzekile, okwenza kube yisalathisi sokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye namandla okuthenga.

3.1.4. Intengiso yeeNtengiso:

  • Ukulandelela inkcitho yabathengi kunye nefuthe layo kwezoqoqosho. Iintengiso zokuthengisa zilandelela iirisithi zizonke kwiivenkile ezithengisa izinto ezithengiweyo ngokuthe ngqo kubathengi. Ngumlinganiselo othe ngqo wokuziphatha kwenkcitho yabathengi kunye necandelo elibalulekileyo lomsebenzi wezoqoqosho.
  • Iintengiso zentengiso ziqinisekisa njani umsebenzi wezoqoqosho odlulileyo (ukusilela). Utshintsho kumanani entengo yokuthengisa lulandela utshintsho kwintembeko yabathengi kunye nenkcitho, ethi yona ixhomekeke kwiimeko zoqoqosho ngokubanzi. Ngaloo ndlela, iintengiso ezithengiswayo zithathwa njengesalathisi sokulala, eqinisekisa iipatheni zokuziphatha kwabathengi emva kokuba zenzekile.

3.2. Iimpawu zemali:

3.2.1. Ukusebenza kwe-Stock Market:

  • Ukudibanisa iintshukumo zemarike yemasheya kuluvo lomtyali mali kunye nenzuzo yenkampani. Ukusebenza kwe-stock market kaninzi kubonisa okulindelweyo ngabatyali-mali malunga nemivuzo yexesha elizayo kunye nempilo yezoqoqosho. Nangona kunjalo, iintsingiselo zentengiso zinokusabela kwiziganeko ezidlulileyo kunye neengxelo zemivuzo, zizenze zibe ngumxube wezinto ezikhokelayo kunye nezishiyekileyo.
  • Indlela yokusebenza edlulileyo ibonakala njani kwiindlela zemarike yemasheya (i-lagging). Nangona i-stock market inokukhangela phambili, iphinda ihlengahlengise ngokusekelwe kwiingxelo zengeniso zangempela kunye neenkcukacha zezoqoqosho, ezizizibonakaliso ezinqabileyo. Ngaloo ndlela, ukusebenza kwangaphambili, xa kuqinisekisiwe, kunokuchaphazela iindlela ezikhoyo zemarike.

3.2.2. Imivuzo yoShishino:

  • Ukubaluleka kwenzuzo kwiinkampani kunye nabatyali-mali. Imivuzo yenkampani, okanye ingeniso eshiyekileyo, ibonisa inzuzo yeenkampani kwaye ibalulekile kubatyali-mali abavavanya impilo yemali yenkampani kunye nokukhula okunokwenzeka.
  • Indlela ingeniso yenkampani eqinisekisa ngayo ukusebenza kweshishini kwixa elidlulileyo (ukushiyeka). Iingxelo zemivuzo zikhutshwa rhoqo ngekota kwaye zibonisa indlela yokusebenza kwexesha elidlulileyo. Zizalathisi ezishiyekileyo, zibonelela ngembono ebuyela emva kwimpilo yemali yenkampani kunye nokusebenza kakuhle.

3.2.3. Amaxabiso enzala:

  • Ukuqonda indima yenzala kumgaqo-mali kunye neemeko zoqoqosho. Inzala, ebekwe ziibhanki ezingoovimba, inefuthe kwiindleko zokuboleka kunye nenkcitho. Zisisixhobo esiphambili somgaqo-nkqubo wezemali, ochaphazela umsebenzi wezoqoqosho.
  • Indlela amaqondo enzala abonisa ngayo izigqibo zomgaqo-nkqubo wexesha elidlulileyo kunye nemeko yezoqoqosho (eshiyekileyo). Uhlengahlengiso lwenzala ziimpendulo kwiimeko zoqoqosho kunye noxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso oluye lwabonwa. Zizalathisi ezisemva ngenxa yokuba zisekelwe kwidatha yezoqoqosho yangaphambili.

3.2.4. Amanqanaba eTyala:

  • Ukuphonononga amatyala angekahlawulwa kunye neziphumo zawo. Amanqanaba etyala, nokuba ngurhulumente okanye wequmrhu, abonisa isixa semali ebolekwayo kwaye abalulekile ekuhloleni uzinzo lwemali.
  • Indlela amanqanaba etyala aqinisekisa ngayo ukuboleka kunye nenkcitho yexesha elidlulileyo (ixesha elidlulileyo). Ukunyuka okanye ukuhla kwamanqanaba etyala kubonisa imigaqo-nkqubo yemali yangaphambili kunye nemikhwa yokuchitha. Ke ngoko, zizalathisi ezisemva, ezibonelela ngemibono malunga neendlela zangaphambili zokuboleka kunye nenkcitho.

3.3. Izalathisi zeShishini:

3.3.1. Ukwaneliseka koMthengi:

  • Ukubaluleka kwamava omthengi kunye nomlinganiselo wayo. Ukwaneliseka komthengi kumlinganiselo wokuba iimveliso okanye iinkonzo ezibonelelwa yinkampani zidibana okanye zingaphaya kolindelo lwabathengi. Sisalathisi sokusebenza esingundoqo kwishishini kwaye sibalulekile ekugcineni ukhuphiswano.
  • Ukwaneliseka kwabathengi kuqinisekisa njani ukusebenza kwangaphambili (ixesha elidlulileyo). Uphononongo kunye neendlela zokunika ingxelo zibamba ukwaneliseka kwabathengi emva kwentengiselwano yenzekile, nto leyo eyenza ibe sisalathiso esisemva somgangatho wenkonzo kunye nokusebenza kwemveliso.

3.3.2. Ukubuya kwabasebenzi:

  • Ukuqonda uzinzo lwabasebenzi kunye nefuthe labo. Utshintsho lwabasebenzi lubhekiselele kwireyithi abasebenzi abayishiya ngayo inkampani baze batshintshwe. Ingeniso ephezulu ingabonakalisa ukungoneliseki kunye nemiba enokubakho ngaphakathi kwintlangano.
  • Indlela inguqu yabasebenzi eqinisekisa ngayo izenzo zolawulo lwangaphambili (ukusilela). Amazinga omsebenzi abonakalisa izigqibo zolawulo lwangaphambili kunye nenkcubeko yesebe, ezibeka njengezalathi ezisilelayo zokwaneliseka kwabasebenzi kunye nempilo yesebe.

3.3.3. Amanqanaba oluhlu:

  • Ukuphonononga ikhonkco phakathi kwe-inventri kunye nentengiso / imveliso. Amanqanaba oluhlu lwempahla ngumlinganiselo wempahla engekathengiswa ephethwe yinkampani. La manqanaba angabonisa ibhalansi phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno.
  • Indlela amanqanaba e-inventri aqinisekisa ngayo ukusebenza kakuhle kwekhonkco lonikezelo lwangaphambili (ukusilela). Ukulungelelaniswa kumanqanaba oluhlu lwenziwa ngokusekelwe kwidatha yokuthengisa kunye noqikelelo lwemveliso, olusekelwe ngokwendalo ekusebenzeni kwangaphambili. Ke, amanqanaba oluhlu lweempahla zizalathi ezisilelayo zemfuno kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwekhonkco lokubonelela.

3.3.4. Imilinganiselo yeNzuzo:

  • Ukutyhilwa kweemetriki eziphambili zemali kwimpilo yenkampani. Imilinganiselo yenzuzo, njengenzuzo eseleyo imajini, imbuyekezo kwii-asethi, kunye nembuyekezo kwi-equity, inika ulwazi kwisakhono senkampani sokwenza ingeniso ngokunxulumene nengeniso, ii-asethi kunye nobulungisa.
  • Indlela imilinganiselo yengeniso iqinisekisa ngayo ukusebenza ngempumelelo kwexesha elidlulileyo (ukusilela). Le milinganiselo ibalwa ngokusekwe kwidatha yezemali yembali, nto leyo ibenza babe zizalathisi ezishiyekileyo zempilo yemali yenkampani kunye nokusebenza kakuhle.
udidi Isalathisi Indlela eqinisekisa ngayo ukusebenza kwangaphambili
Economic izinga lentswela Iqinisekisa amandla oqoqosho okanye ubuthathaka
Ukukhula kweGDP Ibonelela ngezimvo malunga nokusebenza kwezoqoqosho ngokwembali
Isalathiso sexabiso labathengi (CPI) Iqinisekisa utshintsho oludlulileyo kumandla okuthenga
Sales lwezezimali Ibonakalisa ukuziphatha kwabathengi bangaphambili
emali Ukusebenza kwe-Stock Market Ibonakalisa uhlengahlengiso olusekwe kwimivuzo yangaphambili kunye nedatha yezoqoqosho
Imivuzo yeNkampani Qinisekisa ukusebenza kweshishini elidlulileyo
Umgangatho wenzala Cinga ngezigqibo zomgaqo-nkqubo wexesha elidlulileyo kunye nemeko yezoqoqosho
Amanqanaba eTyala Bonisa iindlela zangaphambili zokuboleka kunye nenkcitho
ishishini Ukoneliseka komthengi Iqinisekisa umgangatho wenkonzo yangaphambili kunye nokusebenza kwemveliso
Ingeniso yabasebenzi Ibonisa izenzo zolawulo zangaphambili
Amanqanaba oluhlu Bonisa imfuno yangaphambili kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwekhonkco lonikezelo
Imilinganiselo yokufumana inzuzo Qinisekisa ukusebenza okusebenzayo kwangaphambili

4. Indlela yokuSebenzisa ngokufanelekileyo iZalathi zokuLagging

Izalathi ezisemva, kunye nobuchule bazo obukhethekileyo bokuqinisekisa kunye nokuqinisekisa iindlela zoqoqosho kunye nezemali emva kwenyani, zibambe ixabiso elibalulekileyo kuhlalutyo olukhulu lwezoqoqosho kunye nesicwangciso soshishino lomntu ngamnye. Ukuqonda indlela yokusetyenziswa ngokukuko ezi zalathisi kunokuphucula iinkqubo zokwenziwa kwezigqibo, ucwangciso lobuchule, kunye novavanyo lomsebenzi.

Olunye lolona setyenziso lunamandla lwezalathisi ezishiyekileyo kukungqinisiso lweendlela ezichongiweyo ngezalathi ezikhokelayo. Ngokudibanisa zombini iintlobo zedatha, abahlalutyi kunye nabenzi bezigqibo banokufumana umbono obanzi wemeko yezoqoqosho. Umzekelo, isalathisi esikhokelayo sinokucebisa ukuhla okuzayo, kodwa kukuhla okubonakaliswa kwizalathi ezisilelayo ezifana nezinga lokukhula kwe-GDP kunye namanani abantu abangaphangeliyo aqinisekisa imeko. Le ndlela imbini yenza uvavanyo oluqinisekileyo lweemeko zangoku kunye nezalathiso zexesha elizayo.

4.2. Ukuvavanya iipateni ezidlulileyo:

Iimpawu ezisemva zibonelela nge-lens ecacileyo apho iziphumo zezenzo ezidlulileyo kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo zinokuvavanywa. Kumashishini, ukuhlalutya ukutshintshwa kokwaneliseka kwabathengi okanye utshintsho kwimilinganiselo yenzuzo kunokukhanyisa impumelelo yezigqibo zolawulo lwangaphambili okanye izicwangciso zemarike. Kubaqulunqi bomgaqo-nkqubo, ukuphonononga iindlela zokungaqeshwa okanye ukukhula kwe-GDP kunokuncedisa ukumisela impembelelo yemigaqo-nkqubo yezemali kunye neyemali.

4.3. Ukuchongwa kweeNdawo zoPhuculo:

Ubume obubuyayo bezalathi ezibambekayo bubenza zibe zizixhobo ezixabisekileyo zokuchonga iindawo ezifuna ukuphuculwa. Ngokuphonononga apho iimethrikhi zokusebenza zingakhange zifezekise okulindelekileyo, imibutho kunye nezoqoqosho zinokukhomba iindawo ezithile zohlengahlengiso olucwangcisiweyo. Nokuba kukuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle, njengoko kucetyisiwe lumlinganiselo wengeniso, okanye ukulungisa ulwaneliseko lwabasebenzi, okubonakaliswa ngamazinga otshintsho lwabasebenzi, izikhombisi ezishiyekileyo zikhokelela ekuphuculweni okujoliswe kuko.

4.4. Ukwenza iziGqibo zexesha elizayo ezinolwazi:

Ngelixa izalathisi ezisilelayo zingakuxeleli kwangaphambili iintsingiselo zexesha elizayo, ulwazi olufunyenwe kuhlalutyo lwazo lubalulekile ekubumbeni izicwangciso zekamva. Ukuqonda iziphumo zezenzo zangaphambili kuvumela amashishini kunye nabaqulunqi bomgaqo-nkqubo ukuba benze izigqibo ezinolwazi ngakumbi ukuya phambili. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba uhlalutyo lwe-CPI lubonisa ukuba uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lwalungacingelwanga ngaphambili, umgaqo-mali wexesha elizayo unokulungiswa ngokufanelekileyo.

Sebenzisa Iimeko inkcazelo
Ukuqinisekisa kunye nokuVavanya iindlela Ukudibanisa ukushiyeka kunye nezalathi ezikhokelayo zohlalutyo olubanzi lwentsingiselo
Uvavanyo lwezenzo ezidlulileyo Ukusebenzisa izalathi ezisileleyo ukuvavanya ukusebenza kwezicwangciso zangaphambili
Ukuchongwa kweeNdawo zoPhuculo Ukuhlalutya izalathi ezisileleyo ukukhomba iindawo ezifuna uhlengahlengiso olucwangcisiweyo
Ukwenza Izigqibo Zexesha Elizayo Ukufumana ulwazi kwizalathi ezishiyekileyo ukwazisa izicwangciso zexesha elizayo

5. Imida ekufuneka iqwalaselwe

Ngelixa izikhombisi ezishiyekileyo ziyimfuneko ekuqinisekiseni iintsingiselo kunye nokuvavanya ukusebenza kwexesha elidlulileyo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela imida yazo. Ukuqonda le miqobo kubalulekile kuhlalutyo oluchanekileyo kunye nokwenza izigqibo ezifanelekileyo.

5.1. I-Hindsight Bias:

Omnye weyona mida iphambili yezalathi ezishiyekileyo yindalo yazo yokubonelela ngolwazi emva kwenyani, nto leyo enokukhokelela ekujongeni ngasemva. Lo mkhethe unokwenza iziganeko ezidlulileyo zibonakale ziqikeleleka ngakumbi kunokuba bezinjalo, ezinokuthi zijike iinkqubo zexesha elizayo zokwenziwa kwezigqibo. Abahlalutyi kunye nabenzi bezigqibo kufuneka balumke ukuba bangagqithisi uqikelelo lweziganeko zezoqoqosho nezemali ezisekelwe kwiindlela ezidlulileyo.

5.2. Imiba yaNgaphandle:

Izalathi ezishiyekileyo zikwachaphazeleka kwifuthe lemiba yangaphandle, njengokumothuka kwezoqoqosho ngequbuliso okanye utshintsho olungalindelekanga lomgaqo-nkqubo, olunokuguqula iintsingiselo zembali kwaye lunike idatha yexesha elidlulileyo engabalulekanga kangako kuhlalutyo lwexesha elizayo. Ubume obuguquguqukayo boqoqosho kunye neemarike kuthetha ukuba ukuthembela kwizalathi ezishiyekileyo kuphela, ngaphandle kokuqwalasela ukubakho kweenguqu ezinokwenzeka ngequbuliso, kunokukhokelela kwizigqibo ezigwenxa.

5.3. Ukuchaneka kwedatha kunye nokutolika:

Ukuchaneka kwezalathi ezishiyekileyo kuxhomekeke kakhulu kumgangatho wedatha eqokelelweyo kunye neendlela ezisetyenziswayo ekubaleni kwazo. Iimpazamo ekuqokeleleni idatha okanye ukutolikwa kungakhokelela kwizigqibo ezingalunganga. Ngaphezu koko, umxholo apho ezi zalathi zihlalutywa khona zidlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuphatheni kwazo kunye nokuthembeka. Ukutolikwa ngendlela engeyiyo kwezalathi ezishiyekileyo kunokukhokelela kuvavanyo olugwenxa lwempilo yezoqoqosho okanye ukusebenza kwenkampani.

Umda inkcazelo
Ukujonga kwelinye icala The ingozi yokuqikelela ukuqikelelwa kweziganeko ezisekelwe kwidatha yexesha elidlulileyo
Izinto zangaphandle Impembelelo yeziganeko ezingalindelekanga okanye utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo malunga nokufaneleka kwesalathisi
Ukuchaneka kwedatha kunye nokutolika Ukubaluleka kokuqokelelwa kwedatha echanekileyo kunye nokutolikwa ngononophelo kwiimbono ezithembekileyo

isishwankathelo

Iimpawu ezisemva zibalulekile ekuqondeni iintsingiselo zezoqoqosho nezemali zangaphambili, ukunika ulwazi olunceda ukuhlola ukusebenza kwezicwangciso kunye nokwazisa izigqibo zexesha elizayo. Ngelixa zibonelela ngedatha yembali exabisekileyo, ukulinganiselwa kwabo, kubandakanywa ukuthambekela kokujonga emva kunye nempembelelo yezinto zangaphandle, kufuna ukutolikwa ngokucophelela. Ukudibanisa izalathisi ezishiyekileyo kunye nezinye iindidi kuphucula uhlalutyo, kuvumela abachaphazelekayo ukuba bahambe ngeendlela ezintsonkothileyo zoqoqosho kunye neemeko zentengiso ngempumelelo ngakumbi. Uthethathethwano oluqhubekayo nezi zixhobo lubalulekile ekwenzeni ukhetho olunolwazi kwimeko yezemali eguqukayo.

📚 Izincedisi ezingakumbi

Nceda qaphela: Izibonelelo ezibonelelweyo zisenokungalungiselelwa abaqalayo kwaye zisenokungafaneleki traders ngaphandle kwamava yobungcali.

Ukufumana ukuqonda okunzulu kweZalathi zokuLagging, ndincoma ukuphonononga izixhobo ezibanzi ezikhoyo Investopedia.

❔ Imibuzo edla ngokubuzwa

unxantathu sm ekunene
Zeziphi izikhombisi zokurhoxa ekurhwebeni?

Ekurhwebeni, izikhombisi ze-lagging zizixhobo kunye neemetrics ezibonelela ngolwazi olusekelwe kwidatha yembali, ebonisa iimeko zemarike ezidlulileyo kunye neendlela. Ngokungafaniyo nezalathisi ezikhokelayo ezijolise ekuqikeleleni ukunyakaza kweemarike kwixesha elizayo, izikhombisi ezibambekayo ziqinisekisa iindlela esele zenzekile. Imizekelo ibandakanya i-avareji ehambayo kunye ne-MACD (i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence), ezisetyenziselwa ukuchonga nokuqinisekisa iintsingiselo ezikhoyo kwiintshukumo zamaxabiso, ukunceda. trader benza izigqibo ezisekelwe kwintsebenzo yangaphambili.

unxantathu sm ekunene
Zeziphi izalathisi zokuqhwalela kwezoqoqosho?

Kuqoqosho, izalathisi ezisemva zizibalo-manani eziguqukayo emva kokuba uqoqosho sele luqalisile ukulandela umkhwa othile. Zisetyenziselwa ukuqinisekisa nokuvavanya impilo kunye nesikhokelo soqoqosho ngokubonelela ngobungqina beendlela zexesha elide. Imizekelo ephambili yezalathi zokudodobala kwezoqoqosho ibandakanya izinga lentswelo-ngqesho, ukukhula kwe-GDP, kunye nemivuzo yamashishini. Ezi zalathisi zinceda abahlalutyi, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo, kunye neengcali zezoqoqosho ukuba bahlole ukusebenza kwemigaqo-nkqubo yezoqoqosho kwaye baqonde imeko yomjikelezo wezoqoqosho emva kokuba utshintsho lwenzeke.

unxantathu sm ekunene
Zisetyenziswa nini izalathisi zokuqhwalela?

Izalathi ezisemva zisetyenziselwa ukuqinisekisa ubukho bendlela yangoku, ukuvavanya iziphumo zezenzo okanye imigaqo-nkqubo yexesha elidlulileyo, kunye nokuvavanya ukusebenza kwezigqibo zobuchule zangaphambili. Kuzo zombini urhwebo kunye nezoqoqosho, ziluncedo kakhulu ekuboneleleni ngomfanekiso ocacileyo wentsebenzo yembali, ukunceda abachaphazelekayo ukuba benze izigqibo ezinolwazi ngokuqonda into esele yenzekile kunokuba baqikelele iziganeko ezizayo.

unxantathu sm ekunene
Yeyiphi imizekelo yezalathi ezikhokelayo nezisemva?

Izikhokelo eziPhambili: Ezi ziimitha ezijonge phambili ezijonge ukuqikelela imisebenzi yezoqoqosho yexesha elizayo okanye iintshukumo zentengiso phambi kokuba zenzeke. Imizekelo ibandakanya i-Consumer Confidence Index, iimbuyekezo ze-stock market, kunye neemvume ezintsha zezindlu. Ezi zalathi zingabonisa indlela uqoqosho okanye urhwebo olusingise kulo.

Izikhombisi eziLagging: Njengoko kuxoxiwe, ezi zalathi ziqinisekisa iintsingiselo emva kokuba zenzekile. Kwezoqoqosho, imizekelo ibandakanya izinga lokungasebenzi, ukukhula kweGDP, kunye ne-CPI (I-Index Price Index). Ekurhwebeni, imizekelo ibandakanya i-avareji ehambayo kunye ne-MACD.

 

unxantathu sm ekunene
Zeziphi izikhombisi ezingabambekiyo?

Izalathisi ezingabambekiyo ngokuqhelekileyo zihlelwa njengezalathisi ezihamba phambili, eziqikelela imisebenzi yexesha elizayo kunye neendlela, okanye izikhombisi ezihambelanayo, eziguqukayo ngexesha elinye noqoqosho okanye imarike kwaye zibonelele ngomfanekiso weemeko zangoku. Izalathi ezikhokelayo, ezifana ne-PMI (PMI) kunye namaphepha-mvume okwakha, zijolise ekuqikeleleni imisebenzi yezoqoqosho yexesha elizayo, ngelixa izikhombisi ezingqamanayo ezifana nentengiso yeevenkile kunye nengeniso yomntu ngamnye zibonisa imeko yangoku yoqoqosho.

Umbhali: UArsam Javed
UArsam, iNgcali yoRhwebo enamava angaphaya kweminyaka emine, waziwa ngohlaziyo lwakhe lwemalike yezemali. Udibanisa ubuchule bakhe bokurhweba kunye nezakhono zokucwangcisa ukuphuhlisa abacebisi bakhe beeNgcali, ukuzenzekelayo kunye nokuphucula izicwangciso zakhe.
Funda ngakumbi ngoArsam Javed
Arsam-Javed

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