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I-ETF ye-Crypto e-1 yopha imali
1.1 Ukusuka kwiRekhodi yokuNgena ukuya kwiZiphumo zeMbali
Ekuqaleni kuka-2024 ndaziva ngathi yi-crypto's IPO mzuzu: on Nge-11 kaJanuwari 2024 Abalawuli baseMelika bawangawangisa ngebhetshi yokuqala yendawo yokutshintshiselana ngeBitcoin‑traded imali. Ngaphantsi kweeveki ezine, ezo mveliso ziye zafunxa ngokurhabaxa I-10 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwinkunzi entsha-umyinge we I-125 yezigidi zeedola ngosuku-Ngelixa i-Bitcoin ibaleka isiya kwinqanaba eliphezulu.
Ekupheleni kukaFebruwari imincili yafikelela incopho. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ithemba (IBIT) yaphula irekhodi ye-ETF ekhawulezayo ukuya I-10 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngempahla—ukwenza oko ngobulungisa iiveki ezisixhenxe- ngaphambi kokupheka I-20 yeebhiliyoni zeedola emva kwenyanga. Nangona kunjalo into eyaqala njengombhobho wokungena komlilo ngokuthe ngcembe yabuyela umva ngo-2024 ukuya kutsho ngo-2025: NgoJanuwari 2 2025 ikhuphe i-IBIT yokuqala yeentsuku ezintathu zokurhoxa, ibanjwe I-465 yezigidi zeerandi Ukuphuma kosuku olunye, kunye nokukhululwa kweveki kukhawuleziswa kulo lonke icandelo.
1.2 Umda weNgxaki: iBitcoin‑ ngokuchasene neEthereum‑Imveliso
Izinto eziphumayo azihanjiswa ngokulinganayo. Izithuthi zeBitcoin zisabambe isabelo sengonyama se-asethi (≈ $ 92 billion), kodwa zikwalawula iteyiphu yentlawulelo: iveki ephela. 14 kuTshazimpuzi 2025 bonayo I-751 yezigidi zeerandi shiya i-Bitcoin ETFs. Iimveliso ze-Ethereum zibalisa ibali elahlukileyo-i-AUM encinci (≈ i-7 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi) kodwa inomdla oqhubekayo. Kwisithuba seentsuku ezili-11 ngoMatshi ziye zavuza I-358 yezigidi zeerandi, kunye ne-flagship Grayscale ETHE iye yanikezela ngaphezu isiqingatha sezigidi zeedola unyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku njengoko abatyali-zimali behluleka ukukwazi ukufumana isivuno esihle.
1.3 Isifinyezo sokuHamba kwangoku (Aprili 2025)
Umfanekiso ohambayo uhlala uguquguquka. Ikhefu elifutshane leentsuku ezimbini phakathi ku-Epreli liye lacinywa xa 17 Epreli zibhalwe I-169.9 yezigidi zeerandi kwi-net ye-Bitcoin ETF iyaphuma, ithatha i-streak yokubuyisela. Idatha yeveki yeCoinShares ngoku ingena I-7.2 yeebhiliyoni zeedola itsalwe kwiimali ze-asethi yedijithali ukusukela ekuqaleni kukaFebruwari, isusa yonke into engena ngo-2025. Umrhumo ophezulu we-Grayscale we-GBTC iyodwa kuqikelelwa ukuba iye yachithakala I-20 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kususela ekuguqulweni-enye yee-exodus ezinkulu ezinkulu kwimbali ye-ETF.
Metric | Jan-Feb 2024 (Isigaba SokuQaliswa) | YTD 2025 | IVeki ephela nge-14 ka-Epreli 2025 | I-AUM yangoku (18 Epreli 2025) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ukuhamba komnatha-i-Bitcoin spot ETFs | + $10.1 yebhiliyoni | + $215 m | - $751 m | ≈ $92 bn |
Ukuhamba kweNet-Ethereum spot ETFs | N / A | - $565 m | - $37.6 m | ≈ $7 bn |
Olona qukuqelo lukhulu losuku olunye (i-BTC ETFs) | + $1.0 yebhiliyoni (28 Feb 2024) | - $465 m (2 Jan 2025) | - $169.9 yemitha (17 Epreli 2025) | - |
I-GBTC eyongezelekayo yokuphuma | - | ≈ $20 bn | - | - |
2 I-Anatomy yokuPhuma
2.1 Ukutsalwa komrhumo kunye nogqatso ukuya ezantsi
Imfazwe yomrhumo eyaqhambuka ngoJanuwari ka-2024 iye yaba sisoyikiso esikhoyo kwabo bakwizikhundla eziphezulu. I-Grayscale ibambe ngokuqinileyo kwi 1.5%, ngelixa abatsha abakhuphisana nabo behlise umlinganiselo weendleko ukuya kutsho ngaphantsi 0.12% ngokuyeka okwethutyana. Umrhumo we-Median spot-Bitcoin ETF ngoku udada ngezantsi 0.30%. Ngayo yonke indawo eyongezelelweyo yesiseko sokungqubana, ukusebenza ikhefu banzi-ukudibanisa ngonyaka kwaye wenze umahluko kwintlawulo ubonakale kabuhlungu kwiitshati zembuyekezo iyonke. Ngokungamangalisiyo, iipateni zohlangulo zilandelela umrhumo amanqanaba phantse enye kwenye: I-GBTC yopha phantse US$20 yeebhiliyoni ukusukela kuguqulo, ngelixa i-sub-0.30 % oontanga beqhubeka nokutsala ulwabiwo oluncangathi "olungundoqo" nangeeveki ezisezantsi.
2.2 Ukunyinwa koLwakhiwo: Akukho kuBamba, akukho Mvuno
Ngokungafaniyo nokubamba iithokheni zomthonyama kwi-chain, abatyali-zimali be-ETF abanako ukuthabatha i-Ethereum okanye bathathe inxaxheba kwi-Bitcoin layer-iinkqubo ezimbini zesivuno. I-Ether ivelisa ngoku 3.5 - 5 % nge staking zomthonyama; Iiprogram ze-Bitcoin "zokudlula" kubagcini abathile zibonelela <1%, kodwa nokuba loo nto ikhutshwe kwi-ETF wrappers. Umahluko wesivuno ukhukulisa imeko yembuyekezo iyonke yezithuthi ezingasebenziyo, ukutyhala abatyali-zimali abaphucukileyo babuyele kwityathanga okanye kutshintshiselwano oluphakathi oludlula imbuyekezo. Isiphumo: I-ETHE yeGreyscale ibone ukuphuma okungapheliyo-ngaphezulu US$2.9 yeebhiliyoni ukususela ngoJulayi 2024-nangona ixabiso Ethereum ukubamba ngasentla US $ 3,100.
2.3 Ukuthatha iNzuzo, iZaphulelo ze-NAV, kunye noxinzelelo lweArbitrage
NgoMatshi ka-2024 US$73 k Ukuphakama kwe-Bitcoin kubangele igagasi lokuqala lokuthatha inzuzo. Njengoko ukuhlangulwa kwanda, i-GBTC iye yaguquka ukusuka kwiprimiyamu yeqhezu ukuya kwi- -1.8 % isaphulelo, ngelixa i-ETHE yatyibilika ukuya -8.2 %. Abenzi bentengiso baye baphikisana nezi zaphulelo ngokufutshane ii-ETFs kunye nokuthenga indawo, ukukhawulezisa ukuphuma. IHedge Iimali zikwaqhubele phambili i-capital kwikamva le-CME ukuze ibambe usasazo lwesiseko, ikhuphe ngakumbi i-ETF utywala. Ukuthengisa ngoomatshini okunxulunyaniswa nokukhululwa komthathi-nxaxheba ogunyazisiweyo kuye kwandiswa kwicala elisezantsi ukungazinzi, ukuguqula izithuba ezincinci ze-NAV zibe yi-spirals yokuzizalisekisa.
2.4 Iintloko-moya ezinkulu kunye noLawulo
Incangathi yase-US ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye ne-Federal Reserve igxininise "phezulu ixesha elide" igcine izivuno zokwenyani zilungile nge-Q1 2025, zinciphisa ukunganiki mveliso. crypto ibali. Ngeli xesha, izimangalo eziqhubekayo ze-SEC ngokuchasene notshintshiselwano olukhulu kunye nokulibaziseka kweCongress kumthetho ozinzileyo we-coin igcine ilifu lolawulo. ingozi. Ngaphandle, eYurophu Markets kwi-Crypto‑Assets (MiCA) imithetho ayikahambelani ne-US Frameworks, ukunciphisa umda we-ETP yokuthengisa. Ngokudityanisiweyo, ezi nguqu zinkulu zilawula umngcipheko wokutya kanye njengoko ii-ETF ziphulukene neprimiyamu yazo entsha.
ETF | Ukulinganiswa kweendleko | Intlawulo yomnxeba | Isaphulelo/Intlawulo yexabiso (18 Epreli 2025) | Isivuno sigqithiselwe? |
---|---|---|---|---|
I-GBTC | 1.50% | nanye | -1.8 % | Hayi |
IBIT | 0.25% | I-0.12 % kwi-US$5 yebhiliyoni yokuqala (iinyanga ezili-12) | +0.1 % | Hayi |
FBTC | 0.25% | Irhoxisiwe kuqala kwiinyanga ezi-6 | ±0.0 % | Hayi |
IYESE | 1.50% | nanye | -8.2 % | Hayi (andinakudlala) |
3 IMicrostructure yeMarike kunye nokuziphatha koMtyali
3.1 Ujikelezo lweZiko kunye ne-Hedge‑Fund Arbitrage
Inkunzi ayishiyi i-crypto; iyajikeleza. CME data show vula inzala kwi-cash-settlement Bitcoin futures inyukela kwirekhodi Izivumelwano ezili-27,400 on 15 kuTshazimpuzi 2025- ngokulinganayo 137 000 BTC or US $8.9 billion ngamaxabiso akhoyo. Iiakhawunti zomphathi we-asethi bezinde +9,600 izivumelwano ngelixa i-reveraged-funds iguqukela kuyo -11,200 izivumelwano, ebonisa ukuthwala kwakudala-trade: i-hedge-fund ikamva elifutshane okanye ii-ETF kwaye uthenge indawo yokuvuna isiseko sokusasazeka okanye izaphulelo ze-NAV. Yonke intlawulo yomthathi-nxaxheba egunyazisiweyo esuka kwi-GBTC inikezela ngeenkozo zemali ezintsha arbitrage iidesika, ezithi ziphinde ziphinde ziphinde zisetyenziswe kwindawo ephezulu yekamva elintsonkothileyo okanye ezingapheliyo zaselunxwemeni. Ngokwenyani, imali yokuhlawula amatyala iyafuduka isuka kwi-ETF isongelwe ukuya kwiindawo eziphuma kuzo ezinokuxhaswa ngemali ngexabiso eliphantsi kwaye zibiyelwe nge-intraday.
3.2 Uvakalelo lwentengiso kunye neeNgcaciso zeMedia
Uphando ekwizinga amanqaku okukhangela ixesha "I-Bitcoin ETF" at 100 ngexesha lokuqalisa kukaJanuwari 2024. Inzala iwile 28 ngoDisemba kodwa kwagqitywa 34 ngoMatshi 2025-ukunyuka kokuqala okulandelelanayo kulo nyaka. Nangona kunjalo, i-traffic ihlala ingaphantsi kakhulu kumanqanaba afunekayo ukulinganisa ukuthengiswa kweziko. Ifemu yohlalutyo lwemidiya yoluntu iLunarCrush logs a 61% ukuhla ekukhankasweni kwe-hashtag (#BitcoinETF, #SpotETF) phakathi kwe-Q2 2024 kunye ne-Q1 2025. I-instream coverage iphinde yaphuma kwi-headlines "yokuvunywa kwembali" ukuya kwi-"record outflows" i-sound-bites, ukondla i-loop reflexive: ukugeleza okungahambi kakuhle kuqhuba amabali amabi, athobisa ukugeleza kwe-retail.
3.3 ILiquidity Dynamics: Utshintshiselwano vs ETF Iincwadi zokuOdela
Ngomhla we-17 kuTshazimpuzi ka-2025, imbuyekezo edityanisiweyo yotshintshiselwano (Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, Kraken) ishicilelwe. US $34 billion, elona liphezulu ukusukela kwincopho yexabiso kaMatshi, ngelixa inani lilonke kwi-ETFs ye-US Bitcoin indawo nje US $2.1 billion, ezantsi 39% ukusuka kumndilili kaFebruwari. I-Coinbase International ye-Bitcoin engapheliyo yodwa iqhubekile US $100 billion ngomthamo weveki yombono, urhwebo lwe-ETF luncinci. Ukucela ibhidi ukusasazeka ngaphakathi kweencwadi ze-odolo ze-ETF zandisiwe ukuya 4–6 amanqaku esiseko ngeentsuku ezizolileyo-amanqanaba aphindwe kabini e-Q1 2024-kuba abenzi bentengiso ngoku babiyela uluhlu lwempahla kumachibi anzulu aphuma elunxwemeni kunee-ETF ngokwazo. Ukunganyaniseki okunxulumeneyo kuphinda kungabi namdla kwiqhinga traders, ishiya abagcini bexesha elide kuphela ukuba bafumane intlawulelo.
Isalathisi | Yazisa Frenzy (Jan 2024) | Okwangoku (18 Epreli 2025) | Δ |
---|---|---|---|
CME Bitcoin ikamva elivulekileyo umdla | 16 700 izivumelwano | 27 400 izivumelwano | +64 % |
Isikhundla somphathi we-asethi (CME) | +4 200 izivumelwano | +9 600 izivumelwano | +129 % |
Iindlela zikaGoogle- "i-Bitcoin ETF" | 100 | 34 | -66 % |
Ukukhankanywa kwe-hashtag yentlalo (#BitcoinETF) | Isiseko 100 | 39 | -61 % |
Spot-exchange umthamo wemihla ngemihla | US $22 yebhiliyoni | US $34 yebhiliyoni | +55 % |
US Bitcoin ETF umthamo wemihla ngemihla | US $5.4 yebhiliyoni | US $2.1 yebhiliyoni | -61 % |
Avg. ETF bid-ask spread | 2–3 bps | 4–6 bps | Ububanzi |
I-4 yoKhuphiswano lomhlaba we-Crypto ETFs
4.1 IiTrasti zeLifa: iGreyscale's GBTC & ETHE
I-Grayscale iguqule iitrasti zayo zeminyaka elishumi ubudala ezivaliweyo zibe kutshintshiselwano-traded imali kwi Nge-11 kaJanuwari 2024, ngokukhawuleza ukufumana isiseko esikhulu se-asethi-kodwa kunye neshedyuli ephezulu yomrhumo weshishini (1.50%). Emva koguqulo, i-GBTC isayalela eyona phuli inkulu yeBitcoin ebanjwe yimveliso enye (≈ 303 000 BTC ku fanele ≈ US $21.5 billion) nasemva kokuphuma okumangalisayo. I-ETHE ihlala isesona sithuthi se-Etere esigqwesileyo esidlangalaleni (≈ 1.9 yezigidi ze-ETH, ≈ US $6 billion AUM) kodwa yopha inkunzi veki nganye njengoko abatyali-mali bevukela zombini umrhumo kunye nokungabikho kwe-on-chain staking isivuno.
Intengiso yeGreyscalevantage kukuqondwa kophawu; isithende sayo se-Achilles sixabiso. De imirhumo yolawulo iwe phantsi 0.30%, abahlalutyi balindele ukutyhutyha kweengqekembe eziphumayo ukuya kwizisongelo ezinexabiso eliphantsi.
4.2 Abaceli-mngeni abaPhantsi: BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise
BlackRock IBIT seta ithoni ngomsindo ophantsi 0.25% umrhumo wesihloko kunye nokuyekwa kweenyanga ezilishumi elinesibini unciphisa i-US yokuqala yeebhiliyoni ezi-5 ukuya 0.12%. Ngu 18 kuTshazimpuzi 2025 ingxowa-mali ihlala ngezantsi nje US $23 billion I-AUM, ifunxa isabelo sengonyama sokungena okushiyekileyo nangeeveki zokungabikho komngcipheko.
Ukunyaniseka kweFBTC izibuko kuqoqosho lwe-IBIT (0.25 % umrhumo, ukuyekwa kweenyanga ezintandathu) kwaye iqokelelene ≈ US $15 billion. I-BITB encinci yahamba enye engcono: isigxina 0.20% intlawulo-irhoxisiwe 0.00% kwi-US yokuqala ye-1 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kude kube nguJanuwari 2026-ukunceda ukuwela US $5 billion uphawu. Ezi mveliso zithatha ixesha elide kuphela kubaniki-mali abafana nabaBhalisiweyo Investment Abacebisi, uninzi lwabo banobulumko bokutyala imali kuphela kwi-ETFs kunye ne-sub-0.40 % yomlinganiselo weendleko zizonke.
4.3 IiTrasti eziNcinane, iZiphuma, kunye nee-ETF zeCrypto eziSebenzayo kwiPipeline
Abakhuphi benqanaba lesibini bajolise kwi-niches: I-ARK 21Shares (ARKB) kwaye I-Invesco Galaxy (BTCO) nikezela ngentlawulo encinci yentengisovantages (0.21 %–0.25 %) kunye nokwaleka kweESG. I-HODL kaVanEck kwaye Valkyrie's BRRR zizithengise njenge "Bitcoin purist" idlala ukuba ilungelelanise ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukunciphisa ukuhluma.
Ukujonga phambili, abafaki zicelo abaninzi (uFranklin Templeton, WisdomTree) bafake izicelo "I-staking-enabled" ye-Ethereum ETFs enokusasaza inxalenye yembuyekezo yokuqinisekisa. Ngeli xesha, i-CFTC-regulated futures complex ixhasa isityalo esikhulayo seBitcoin elawulwa ngokusebenzayo. qhinga iimali (umz., IBITX, I-MAXI) etshintsha phakathi kwexesha elizayo kunye nemali ukuthomalalisa ukuguquguquka.
Tyikiti | Umthumi | Ujoliso lweAsethi | Usuku lokuqalisa | Ukulinganiswa kweendleko | AUM (18 Epreli 2025) | YTD Net flows |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I-GBTC | IGreyyscale | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 (uguqulo) | 1.50% | US $21.5 yebhiliyoni | - US $ 19.9 yebhiliyoni |
IYESE | IGreyyscale | Ethereum | 11 Jan 2024 (uguqulo) | 1.50% | US $6.0 yebhiliyoni | - US $ 2.3 yebhiliyoni |
IBIT | BlackRock | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.25 % (0.12 % ukuncama) | US $23.0 yebhiliyoni | + US $ 3.4 yebhiliyoni |
FBTC | ukuthembeka | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.25% | US $15.1 yebhiliyoni | + US $ 1.9 yebhiliyoni |
I-BITB | bitwise | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.20 % (0 % ukuyekwa ukuya kwi-US $ 1 bn) | US $5.2 yebhiliyoni | + US $ 1.2 yebhiliyoni |
I-ARKB | UMARKO 21Izabelo | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.21% | US $3.3 yebhiliyoni | + US $ 0.7 yebhiliyoni |
I-BTCO | I-Invesco Galaxy | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.25% | US $2.1 yebhiliyoni | + US $ 0.4 yebhiliyoni |
HODL | VanEck | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.20% | US $1.4 yebhiliyoni | + US $ 0.3 yebhiliyoni |
I-BRRR | Valkyrie | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.25% | US $0.9 yebhiliyoni | + US $ 0.2 yebhiliyoni |
La manani aqaqambisa imarike enamacala amabini: ilifa lithemba ukopha kwinkunzi phantsi koxinzelelo lomrhumo, ngelixa abangeneli bemali ephantsi badibanisa isabelo kunye neemveliso ze-niche zifukamela ii-engile ezikhethekileyo ezifana ne-ESG okanye esebenzayo. ulawulo lwengozi.
5 Ithuba Phakathi Kwegazi Lokuphalazwa Kwegazi
5.1 Isaphulelo-kwi-NAV Arbitrage Strategies
Izaphulelo ze -1 % ukuya -2 % kwi-GBTC kunye -8 % kwi-ETHE inokubonakala ithozamile ecaleni kwezithuba ezinedijithi ezimbini zexesha lokuthembana, kodwa basaguqulela kwi-alpha enentsingiselo ye-hedge-fund desks ezikwaziyo ukuthenga izabelo ze-ETF, zihlawulele iinkozo zemali, kwaye zibhangise kwi-chain. Kubatyali-mali abathengisayo ngaphandle kofikelelo lomthathi-nxaxheba ogunyazisiweyo, ukuthenga ngokulula izabelo ezingaphantsi kwexabiso le-asethi eshiyekileyo kunika umqamelo odibeneyo ngokuchasene nebala. Uphononongo lwembali oluthetha ukubuyisela umva lubonisa isaphulelo se-GBTC sicutha ukuya ngaphantsi 0.5% ngexesha lokugqabhuka ngokutsha kokungena, okuthetha ukuba kunokwenzeka +150 isiseko-inqaku ukusebenza ngaphandle kokuba umqukuqelo uyaphambuka. Abatyali-mali kufuneka balandelele iprimiyamu/ukutya kwesaphulelo kwimihla ngemihla kubakhuphi kunye needeshibhodi zohlalutyo lwe-ETF kwaye balungele ukujikelezisa inkunzi ngokukhawuleza.
5.2 Ukuvunwa kweRhafu-Ilahleko kunye neeEngile zokuHlanganisa iPotfoliyo
Cryptocurrency uhlala ngaphandle kwe-US Umgaqo wokuthengisa, oku kuthetha ukuba umtyali-mali unokuthengisa i-Bitcoin ETF, aqonde ilahleko eyinkunzi, kwaye ngoko nangoko athenge ukutyhileka kweBitcoin-nokuba ngomrhumo ophantsi okhuphisana naye okanye ukugcinwa ngokuthe ngqo-ngaphandle kokulinda iintsuku ezingama-30. Lo mngxunya uya kuvaleka nje ukuba iCongress ilungelelanise i-crypto kunye nomthetho wokhuseleko, kodwa ukusukela ngo-Epreli ka-2025 yenza inketho enqabileyo yasimahla yokuphelisa ezinye iinzuzo zika-2025 ngelixa uhlala utyalwe ngokupheleleyo. Ababeki-zabelo abaphucukileyo badibanisa ilahleko yokuvuna kunye imali arbitrage: yikristale ilahleko ye-GBTC, ufudukele kwi-0.25% yengxowa-mali, kwaye uthabathe zombini i-alpha yerhafu kunye nemali yokugcina imali yonyaka.
5.3 Ukunciphisa iRate-Cut Tailwinds: Indlela umgaqo-mali onokuthi ujike ngayo iScript
Iimarike zekamva ngoku zabela ≈ 70 % amathuba okuba ye-Federal-Reserve ireyithi yokuqala enqunywe yi NgoJulayi 2025 Intlanganiso yeFOMC, kunye traders ixabiso elongezelekayo 50 isiseko-amanqaku yokuphucula ekupheleni konyaka. Izivuno zokwenyani ezisezantsi ngokwembali zihambelana nokusebenza okunamandla kwe-crypto njengoko iindleko zethuba lokubamba ii-asethi ezinganiki mveliso ziwa. Ngaba i Ukutya i-pivot, uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lomngcipheko oluleleyo kumhlalaphantsi kunye neengxowa-mali ze-asethi ezininzi zinokuphinda zifakwe kwezona proxies ze-crypto ezingamanzi-indawo ye-ETFs-iphinda iphucule izaphulelo kunye nokubuyisela umva ukuphuma kwe-YTD.
5.4 IStaking-Enebled or Hybrid Funds: ILiza elilandelayo leMveliso?
Ulawulo ngesantya icebisa ukuba isivuno sokugqitha asiselophupha elikude. Ngo-Epreli 2025 i-SEC yavuma izilungiso ezilindelekileyo ngokohlobo ukuhlawulelwa kunye nokubekwa kwe-Ethereum ecetywayo evela kwi-Fidelity kunye noFranklin Templeton, nangona i-arhente ingekasayine. Ukufayilisha okunxuseneyo kukaSolana kunye neemali ezininzi "zengeniso ye-crypto" zibonakalisa ngokucacileyo imbuyekezo yokuqinisekisa. Ukuba zivunyiwe, ezi hybrids ziya kuthoba umsantsa phakathi kobunini be-on-chain kunye nee-ETF, okunokwenzeka ukuba kukhululwe umjikelo omtsha wolwabiwo lwe-asethi-ingakumbi kumaziko athintelwe kwi-'40 Act izakhiwo.
Catalyst | Imo yangoku (18 Epreli 2025) | 12‑Inyanga enokwenzeka | Umtyali-zimali onokubakho uyaHamba |
---|---|---|---|
Isaphulelo se-GBTC/ETHE sithetha-ukubuyisela | -1 % / -8 % | 60% | Ziqokelele ngaphantsi kwe-NAV; uthango olunekamva |
Indawo yokuhlambela ilungile | Akukho mgaqo weentsuku ezingama-30 kwi-crypto | I-50% yamathuba okuvalwa ngo-2026 | Ilahleko yesivuno; tshintshela kwi-ETF yomrhumo ophantsi |
Ukunciphisa izinga le-Fed | 70 % amathuba okuba ngoJul 2025 | 70% | Ukwandisa ukubonakaliswa kwe-crypto cyclical |
I-ETFs enestaking-enabled | I-SEC yokuphonononga iifayile | 40% | Ukwabela abaniki-mvume kwangethuba; isibonda kwi-chain okwethutyana |
6 Ukujongwa kweNgcali kunye noVavanyo lwemeko (2025-2026)
6.1 I-Base Case: Ukudityaniswa kwaMacala
Uninzi lwabacwangcisi babona ixesha lokupholisa endaweni yokuntlitheka. Ngaphantsi kwesi siseko, umgaqo-mali wase-US ulula kancinci-inye okanye ezimbini 25 isiseko-amanqaku ukucutha kuqala ngasekupheleni kuka-2025-ukugcina izivuno zokwenyani zilungile kodwa zingenasohlwayo. I-Bitcoin kunye ne-Ethereum i-oscillate ngaphakathi kuluhlu olubanzi lokuvunywa kwesithuba (BTC US $55 k–80 k, ETH US $2 .7 k–4 k). Uxinzelelo lwentlawulo kwiimveliso zelifa luyaqhubeka, kunye neGreyscale inyanzeliswa ngezantsi 1.00% nge-Q4 kodwa usaphulukana nempahla ephantsi koontanga abancinci. Indawo yonke-ETF iqukuqela indanda kufutshane neqanda: iintsuku zokungena kunye neentsuku zokuphuma ziyatshintshana, ishiya unyaka opheleleyo ka-2025 ulungelelene emva kombhobho okhohlakeleyo we-Q1. Izaphulelo zihlaliswa kwipaseji emxinwa (GBTC -1 % ukuya -0.5 %; ETHE -6 % ukuya -4 %) njengabathathi-nxaxheba abagunyazisiweyo bangenelela naziphi na izikhewu ezibanzi. Uvakalelo lwentengiso luhlala lusakha ngononophelo, lulindele i-catalyst-ingcaciso elawulayo okanye i-macro easing-ukuphula uluhlu.
6.2 I-Bull Case: Ukucaciswa okuLawulwayo + ukuHlangana kweStaking + ukucuthwa kweRate
Imeko engaphezulu ibeka imisila emithathu. Okokuqala, iNkongolo ikhawuleza ilandelele isakhelo se-asethi yedijithali ye-bipartisan ebeka emngciphekweni imithetho yogcino kunye nezibane eziluhlaza ezilinganiselweyo ngaphakathi kweemali ze-'40 Act. Okwesibini, iFederal Reserve front-loads easing, slicing policy rates by 75 isiseko-amanqaku ngaphambi kukaDisemba 2025 kunye nokubonisa ukungathathi hlangothi kweshiti. Okokugqibela, i-SEC ivume ukukhululwa kwe-Ethereum ETF kwaye ivumela abakhuphi ukuba badlule kwimbuyekezo ebambekayo. Inkunzi izandyondyo zemvula ibuyile: i-cumulative spot-ETF inflows US $25 billion, ukucima konke ukuphuma kwangaphambili. Umrhumo we-GBTC ucuthiwe ukuya 0.25% iphelisa isaphulelo ngokupheleleyo, iqhuba ipremiyamu emfutshane. I-Bitcoin ikhupha into entsha yexesha lonke ngaphezulu US $95 k, kunye nemiqulu ye-on-chain eboniswe yirekhodi US $9 billion umndilili wengeniso yemihla ngemihla kuzo zonke ii-ETFs. Imifuziselo yamaziko-ingakumbi imali yomhlalaphantsi yase-US efuna izakhiwo ze-ETF-zabe i-extra 0.2% kwi-crypto kwiiphothifoliyo ezihlukeneyo, ukulungelelanisa iklasi ye-asethi.
6.3 I-Case ye-Bear: Umngcipheko owandisiweyo we-Off, i-Fie-Compression Squaze & More Outflows
Ibali elisezantsi libonisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuncangathi kunye ne-Fed ebambezela ukucutha kude kube yi-2026. Amaxabiso okwenene ahlala ngaphezulu. 2%, iifemu zeedola, kunye nomngcipheko we-geopolitical (umzekelo, ukothuka okutsha kwamandla) kukhokelela ekuphumeni okubanzi kwe-asethi yomngcipheko. Iimfazwe ze-ETF zomrhumo ziyaqina: I-Bitwise iyancipha ukuya 0.10%, Ukunyaniseka kurhoxisa iifizi ngomnye unyaka, kwaye iGreyscale iyayithobela 0.25% ukanti imikhondo ekuhambeni. Abathathi-nxaxheba abagunyazisiweyo bahlawulela ngamandla, batsale omnye US $30 billion ukusuka kwiimali zeBitcoin kunye US $4 billion kwiimali ze-Ether. Ngaphandle kwendlela ecacileyo yolawulo, ii-ETFs ezikwaziyo ukubekelwa bucala kunye ne-on-chain alternatives hoover liquidity. I-GBTC kunye ne-ETHE zihlala kwizaphulelo ezibanzi (-3 % kunye -10 % ngokulandelanayo) ngelixa i-Bitcoin isila ukuya kuthi ga ngoku. US $42 k kunye ne-Ethereum ukuya US $1.8 k. Phantsi kolu xinzelelo, ubuncinci umkhuphi omnye omncinci uyayivala imveliso yakhe ngenxa ye-AUM ethe gqolo.
Isimo | Abaqhubi abaphambili | 2025-Isiphelo se-ETF ye-Net | Uluhlu lwexabiso le-BTC | Uluhlu lwexabiso le-ETH | Isaphulelo se-GBTC | Okunokwenzeka* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
isiseko | Ukucuthwa ngokuthe ngcembe kweFed, ukunyanzeliswa kwentlawulo, akukho staking | ± US $2 yebhiliyoni | 55 k–80 k | 2.7 k–4 k | -1 % ukuya -0.5 % | 50% |
inkunzi | Ukunciphisa okunamandla, ukuvunywa kwe-stacking, i-regs ecacileyo | + US $ 25 yebhiliyoni | 80 k–100 k | 4 k–6 k | 0 % ukuya +1 % | 30% |
zeBhere | Akukho kuncitshiswa kwexabiso, umngcipheko wehlabathi jikelele, imfazwe eqatha yomrhumo | - US $ 30 yebhiliyoni | 35 k–55 k | 1.8 k–3 k | -3 % ukuya -5 % | 20% |
7 Isicwangciso sokuSebenza soMtyali
7.1 Uluhlu lokuHlola olufunekayo lokuVavanya ii-Crypto ETFs
Phambi kokwabelwa imali entsha-okanye ukujikelezisa kwi-wrapper ebiza kakhulu-sebenzisa isikrini esicwangcisiweyo:
- Umlinganiselo wenkcitho iyonke (TER) – target ≤ 0.30 % ukuvezwa core. Rhoqo nge-10 bps umahluko weendleko ≈ 0.6 % yentsebenzo eyongezelekayo kwisithuba seminyaka emihlanu.
- IPremium / iDiscount Volatility - uphonononge umndilili weentsuku ezingama-30 ukusuka kwi-NAV; ibhendi eqinileyo (< 0.4 %) ibonisa umsebenzi ogunyazisiweyo-othatha inxaxheba osempilweni.
- Iimetriki zoLiquidity -umyinge wexabiso ledola yemihla ngemihla ≥ US $ 50 yezigidi kunye nescreen sisasaza ≤ 4 bps ukuze kuqhutywe ngokufanelekileyo.
- Umlondolozi kunye ne-Inshurensi - qinisekisa ukugcinwa kweendawo ezibandayo ezininzi okanye okwahlukileyo, kunye nokhuseleko lolwaphulo-mthetho; I-IBIT kunye ne-FBTC zisebenzisa i-Coinbase Custody kunye ne-US $ 200 yezigidi ze-inshurensi yelahleko engaphezulu.
- Ulwakhiwo lweNdalo yokwabelana – izinto ezenziweyo/eziluncedo zinciphisa ukuvuza kwerhafu; Iinkqubo zemali ezinkozo kuphela zibangela ukutyibilika korhwebo ngaphakathi kwingxowa-mali.
- Umbhobho woLawulo -abanikezeli abanezilungiso ezisalindileyo zokuhlawulelwa kwe-ETH okanye zobubele ziqinisekisa iprimiyamu eya phambili.
7.2 ETF Exposure vs Direct Custody vs Staking Platforms
iimpawu | Spot-Crypto ETF | UkuZigcina kwi-Hardware Wallet | On‑Chain Staking/Liquid-Staking Token |
---|---|---|---|
Yima kancinci | Akukho nanye (de kube kunikwe amandla) | nanye | 3.5 – 5 % ETH; 2 – 4 % SOL |
Ukucaciswa koLawulo | Phezulu (SEC-bhalisiwe) | Phakathi (ukuzixela ngokwakho) | Phantsi ukuya-kwimodareyitha (ixhomekeke kulawulo) |
Umngcipheko wokuchasana neqela | Ukutshona komgcini + umngcipheko wokukhupha | Impazamo yomsebenzisi/ilahleko yehardware | Ikhontrakthi ye-Smart kunye nokusikwa kwesiqinisekiso |
Ukuntsonkotha kweRhafu (US) | 1099‑B into yomgca omnye | Ifomu 8949 kwitx nganye | Ingeniso yesiqhelo + imisitho yenzuzo eyinkunzi |
Ukusetyenziswa koMsebenzi | Cofa kwi-Brokerage | Ifuna ulawulo lwesipaji | Iyafuneka Defi ubuchule |
Isikhokelo: Sebenzisa ii-ETF zokuvezwa ngaphakathi kumhlalaphantsi okanye kwiiakhawunti zeengcebiso; ukuzimela ngokucwangcisa ixesha elide lokubamba; kwi-chain staking yokufuna isivuno, inkunzi ye-tech-savvy.
7.3 Ubungakanani beNdawo, uLawulo loMngcipheko, kunye nokuLungelelanisa ngokutsha iiWindows
- Isakhelo seSatellite esingundoqo - i-cap iyonke ye-crypto kwi-2 - 5% ye-diversified portfolio. Yabela i-70 % yeso silayi kwi-Bitcoin ETFs (engundoqo) kunye ne-30 % kwimidlalo yesathelayithi (i-ETH egxininisiweyo, imiqondiso ye-liquid-staking, okanye ngaphezulu-beta alt-ETFs).
- Uhlahlo-lwabiwo mali oluguquguqukayo – target risk parity: allote crypto notional such that daily VaR ilingana ne 20 % equity position. Lungisa ubungakanani bekota ngokusekwe kukuguquguquka okubonakalayo.
- Uhlengahlengiso lweShedyuli – ulungelelwaniso lwekhalenda lwekota luthetha-ukubuyisela umva; I-intra-quarter triggers kwi ± 150 bps ye-NAV isaphulelo sobubanzi bunokuthethelela ubuchule trades phakathi kweemveliso.
- Misa-Ilahleko kunye neZixhobo zeHedge -sebenzisa i-CME encinci yeBitcoin ikamva kwihedi esecaleni; I-1 ye-BTC encinci ilingana ne-0.01 BTC, ivumela ukugqunywa kwegranular ngokuchasene nezikhundla ze-ETF ngaphandle kokubangela iingxaki zokuthengisa ngokuhlamba.
7.4 Idatha yokuhamba kunye neMrhumo-Tshintshwa iiDashbhodi ukuze zibeke iliso
- I-CoinShares yeVeki yeDigital-Asset Fund iyaqukuqela (ipapashiwe ngeMivulo) – umfanekiso okhawulezayo wokuziphatha kweziko.
- Farside Investors ETF Dashboard -Indalo yexesha lokwenyani/intlawulelo kunye neetshati zeprimiyamu ze-IBIT, GBTC, FBTC, ETHE, kunye nabanye.
- Itheminali yaseBloomberg Umsebenzi -Iimephu zobushushu ezidityanisiweyo ezinqamlezayo kunye nokusasazeka kweNAV.
- Iifayile zoMkhuphi (SEC EDGAR) -ukulandelela i-S-1 okanye i-497K izongezo zokunciphisa imirhumo kunye notshintsho lwesakhiwo (umzekelo, izilungiso ezisalindileyo).
- KwiChain Glassnode kunye neDune Analytics Boards - ukujonga iintshukumo zengqekembe emva kokukhululwa ukuvavanya uxinzelelo lwe-arb.
Umtyali-mali we-Archetype | Injongo yePotfoliyo | I(zi)moto ezicetyiswayo | Ii-KPI ezingundoqo ekufuneka zijongwe | Intshukumo rhoqo |
---|---|---|---|---|
I-RIA engenamrhumo | I-Passive BTC exposure ngaphakathi kwe-IRAs | IBIT / FBTC (≤ 0.25 % TER) | Iprimiyamu/isaphulelo; izaziso zentlawulo | Uphononongo lwesiqingatha sonyaka |
Yield-Hunter Family Office | Iyonke-imbuyekezo yokutyhileka kwe-ETH | Lindela i-ETF enestaking-enabled; okwethutyana Lido stETH | Staking APR; Ixesha lokuvunywa kwe-SEC | ngenyanga |
I-Tactical Hedge-Fund | Isaphulelo-capture arbitrage | I-GBTC ende, ikamva elifutshane le-CME BTC | Isaphulelo > 1 %; ukusasazeka kwesiseko | Eqhubekayo |
I-HODLer yokuthengisa | Elula "ukuthenga kwaye ulibale" umkhono we-crypto | I-70% ye-IBIT, i-30% ye-ETH ye-Cold-wallet | Ukutsalwa kwentlawulo; i-inshurensi yokugcina | Yonyaka |
Ukuthotyelwa-Bound Pension | I-Reg-enzima, i-proxy engamanzi | Ibhaskithi enkulu ye-ETF (IBIT, FBTC) | Imali yokuhlawula amatyala yonke imihla; AUM ≥ US $ 10 bn | Quarterly |
8 Isiphelo-Isiphelo Esifileyo okanye Inguqulelo 2.0?
8.1 Ithetha ukuthini kanye kanye Ukuphalazwa kwegazi ka-2025
Unyaka wokuqala we-Crypto phantsi kokukhanya kwe-ETF ubonakalise izinto ezimbini ngaxeshanye: intshiseko yomtyali-mali inokubonakala ngesantya serekhodi, kwaye inkunzi inokubaleka ngokukhawuleza xa ulwakhiwo, umrhumo, kunye nokungqubana okukhulu. Ukuguqulwa okumangalisayo ukusuka I-10 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngoJanuwari 2024 ukungena kokuphindaphinda $500 yezigidi-kunye ukuphuma kweveki ngo-2025 kungaphantsi kwesigwebo esibulalayo kwiklasi ye-asethi kunovavanyo loxinzelelo lwentengiso yemveliso. Izisongelo zokukhubekisana okuphezulu, isivuno esingu-zero, kunye nokungaqiniseki komgaqo-nkqubo kuguqule iqela lokuqala lee-ETFs zibe amavili oqeqesho-Ayikabikho amaziko omdyarho weebhayisekile ezifunayo ekugqibeleni.
8.2 Ii-Evolutions esele zihamba
Uxinzelelo lomrhumo alupheli kwaye alunamlinganiselo: wonke umkhuphi ongezantsi 0.30% isatsala ii-asethi ezincangathi, ngelixa nantoni na engasentla 1% uyopha. Abalawuli sele beqalisile ukunxulumana ne-in-kind redemption kunye nestaking mechanics. Iindawo ze-Derivatives zifunxa amanzi ekungekabikho kuwo ii-ETFs-kodwa loo msantsa uya kuncipha ukuba iimveliso zinokuzisa isivuno kunye nokusasazeka okuqina. I-Macro cross-currents ihlala ibalulekile: nje ukuba i-Federal Reserve ibonise umjikelo wokunciphisa oqinisekileyo, ixabiso lethuba le-Bitcoin elinganiki mveliso liza kuwa, libuyisele ii-ETF ezinobunjineli kakuhle kwisithuba sokuhamba kweziko.
8.3 Imibuzo ekhokelayo phambi kokuba ucofe “Thenga”
Ngaba imirhumo yokutya i-alpha yakho ngokukhawuleza kunokuba isiqingatha seBitcoin sidala ukunqongophala?
Ngaba ingxowa-mali evunyiweyo okanye ehlanganisiweyo ingatshintsha ubungakanani bolwabiwo lwakho?
Ingakanani ithisisi yakho ixhomekeke kunciphiso lweFed olukufutshane-kwaye sithini iSicwangciso B ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo uhlala uqinile?
Ngaba ukulungele ukubeka esweni izaphulelo ze-NAV yonke imihla, okanye usetiwe-kwaye-ulibale ukugcinwa ngokufanelekileyo?
8.4 Ukukhangela Phambili: Version 2.0 Playbook
Lindela isizukulwana esilandelayo see-ETF ze-crypto ukuze ufiphale umgca phakathi kokuvezwa kokwenziwa kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba kwekhonkco. Iimodeli zeHybrid ezidlula kwi-staking okanye isivuno esincedisayo, iishedyuli zemirhumo eziguquguqukayo ezivuza abanini bexesha elide, kunye noluhlu olunqamlezayo eYurophu nase-Asiya lunokuguqula ubutsha buka-2024 bube yipotfoliyo ka-2026. Abatyali-mali abanyamezele ukuthotywa kuka-2025 banokuzifumana sele bekwigophe nje ukuba inguqulelo 2.0 isungulwe-ukuba bahlala bekhetha, besazi ngentlawulo, kunye ne-macro-savvy.