1. Ukuqonda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso
Kwihlabathi lorhwebo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngamandla akhoyo kwindawo yonke athi cwaka ubume bohambo lwakho lwemali. Kufana nomsinga ohamba kancinci, osoloko ungabonwa kodwa uhlala usemsebenzini, ngokuthe ngcembe utshabalalisa amandla okuthenga eedola ozisebenze nzima. Kodwa yintoni kanye kanye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso? Embindini wayo, lizinga apho umgangatho ngokubanzi wamaxabiso eempahla kunye neenkonzo unyuka, okubangela ukuba amandla okuthenga emali ehle.
I xabiso idla ngokulinganiswa njengokunyuka kwepesenti ngonyaka. Njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka, idola nganye onayo ithenga ipesenti encinci yezinto ezilungileyo okanye inkonzo. Kuba traders, ukuqonda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kubalulekile kuba kuchaphazela ngqo imbuyekezo kutyalo-mali lwakho. Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu, umlinganiselo wokwenyani wembuyekezo kutyalo-mali unokuba ngaphantsi kakhulu kunomlinganiselo oqhelekileyo wembuyekezo.
Ibhanki ephakathi ukuzama ukunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso - kunye nokuphepha ukuhla - ukuze ugcine uqoqosho luhamba kakuhle. Nangona iziphumo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso zibanzi, enye yezona zinto zibalulekileyo traders yimpembelelo kwi umgangatho wenzala. Xa ibhanki ephakathi ibona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu kakhulu, inokunyusa inzala yokunciphisa uqoqosho kunye nokunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Njenge trader, kubalulekile ukubeka iliso kwiintsingiselo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngoba? Ngenxa yokuba a ukunyuka okubukhali kwexabiso lentengo inokukhuthaza iibhanki ezingoovimba ukuba zinyuse inzala, nto leyo enokukhokelela ekwehleni kwamaxabiso esitokhwe. Ngokwahlukileyo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphantsi okanye ukuwa kunokukhokelela kwinzala ephantsi, enokunyusa amaxabiso esitokhwe. Ngoko ke, ukuqonda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nefuthe layo kwisicwangciso sakho sokurhweba kubalulekile ekwenzeni izigqibo ezinolwazi ezinokukunceda ufezekise iinjongo zakho zemali.
Nangona kungenakwenzeka ukuqikelela ikamva, ukwazi isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezikhoyo kunye notshintsho olunokubakho kunokubonelela ngengqiqo ebalulekileyo. Ke, gcina iliso kwisantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwaye uhlengahlengise isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba ngokufanelekileyo. Khumbula, kwihlabathi lezorhwebo, ulwazi lunamandla, kwaye ukuqonda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso sisixhobo esinamandla kwi-arsenal yakho.
1.1. Inkcazo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso
I xabiso, igama elidla ngokuthethwa ngokwezemali, ligama elibalulekileyo traders kufuneka babambe. Yeyona izinga apho umgangatho jikelele wamaxabiso eempahla neenkonzo unyuka ngawo, kwaye emva koko, amandla okuthenga ayawa.
Ukuyibeka ngamazwi alula, khawufane ucinge ukuba ungathenga imoto nge-20,000 yeedola namhlanje. Ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso bekuya kunyuka nge-2% kulo nyaka uzayo, loo moto ifanayo iya kuxabisa i-$ 20,400. Oku kunyuka kusisiphumo sokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ngokuhamba kwexesha, njengoko iindleko zempahla kunye neenkonzo zinyuka, ixabiso ledola liya kuhla ngenxa yokuba umntu akayi kukwazi ukuthenga kakhulu ngaloo dollar njengoko wayenokuba nayo xa iindleko ziphantsi. Oku kusisiseko ifuthe lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kumandla akho okuthenga.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso akukubi ngokwemvelo. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphakathi luphawu lwezoqoqosho olusempilweni, olukhulayo. Amashishini kusenokwenzeka ukuba anyuse imivuzo xa ethengisa iimpahla neenkonzo ezininzi, kwaye abathengi badla ngokuchitha xa berhola ngaphezulu.
Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu kunokukhokelela ekungazinzini kwezoqoqosho, okubangela ukuba abantu banciphise inkcitho, nto leyo enokucothisa ukukhula koqoqosho. Kwi-flip side, i-deflation (i-inflation embi) nayo inokukhokelela kwiingxaki zezoqoqosho. Xa amaxabiso esihla, abathengi badla ngokulibazisa ukuthenga belindele ukuhla kwexabiso elongezelelweyo, nto leyo enokukhokelela ekwehleni kwemfuno, okubangela ukuba amashishini acuthe imveliso kwaye okunokukhokelela ekudodobaleni koqoqosho.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ke ngoko, a ikrele elintlangothi-mbini. Yinxalenye ebalulekileyo yoqoqosho olusempilweni, kodwa kufuneka ibekwe iliso elibukhali kwaye ilawulwe ukunqanda iingxaki zezoqoqosho ezinokuthi zibe kho. Njenge trader, ukuqonda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngundoqo ekwenzeni izigqibo ezinolwazi, njengoko kuchaphazela kuphela uqoqosho kodwa kunye namazinga enzala, nto leyo echaphazela i-stock market.
1.2. Iimbangela zokunyuka kwamaxabiso
Xa kuziwa kwizinto ezibangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, kubalulekile ukuqonda ukuba ayisiyonto ingaqhelekanga, kodwa isiphumo semeko ethile yezoqoqosho. Imfuno-tsala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso sesinye sezi zizathu, esenzeka xa imfuno yempahla neenkonzo igqitha unikezelo lwazo. Oku kungalingani kunokubangelwa kukunyuka kwenkcitho yabathengi, inkcitho karhulumente, okanye utyalo-mali lwangaphandle.
Kwelinye icala, Ixabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kubangelwa xa iindleko zemveliso zinyuka, ezikhokelela ekunciphiseni ukubonelela. Oku kunokuba ngenxa yokunyuka kwemivuzo, okanye ukunyuka kwexabiso lezinto eziphathekayo. Yimeko yakudala yemali eninzi ukuleqa iimpahla ezimbalwa kakhulu.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okwakhelwe ngaphakathi ngomnye unobangela, kukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ekulindeleke ukuba kwenzeke kwixesha elizayo. Oku kulindela kunokukhokelela kwisiprofeto esizizalisekisayo, njengoko abasebenzi bafuna umvuzo ophezulu kunye namashishini aphakamisa amaxabiso ngokulindela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu.
Gqi beleni, hyperinflation lolona hlobo lugabadeleyo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, oludla ngokubangelwa ngurhulumente oshicilela izixa ezigqithisileyo zemali. Oku kunokukhokelela ekwenyukeni ngokukhawuleza nokungalawulekiyo kwamaxabiso, nto leyo edla ngokuphumela ekungazinzini kwezoqoqosho.
Ngasinye kwezi zizathu zinokuthi zenzeke ngokuzimeleyo, okanye zinokusebenzisana kwaye zandise enye kwenye, zikhokelela kwiimeko ezinzima ngakumbi zokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ukuqonda ezi zizathu kungundoqo ekujongeni imeko yezemali kunye nokwenza izigqibo zokurhweba ezinolwazi.
1.3. Iindidi zokunyuka kwamaxabiso
Ukuntywila nzulu kwihlabathi lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, sidibana neendidi ezahlukeneyo ezithi nganye ineempawu zayo ezizodwa. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezirhubuluzayo, ekwabizwa ngokuba yi-mild inflation, kukunyuka okucothayo nokuzinzileyo kwamaxabiso, okuhlala kubonwa njengophawu loqoqosho olusempilweni. Olu hlobo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso luhlala luphakathi kwe-1-3% ngonyaka.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, kwelinye icala, kuxa izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso linyuka, ngokubanzi phakathi kwe-3-10% ngonyaka. Olu luphawu lwesilumkiso kwiingcali zezoqoqosho, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba uqoqosho lukhula ngokukhawuleza.
Emva koko kukho Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto, apho izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lifikelela kwiindawo eziphakamileyo ze-10-1000% ngonyaka. Le yimeko yezoqoqosho enzima ekhokelela ekubeni abantu balahlekelwe ukholo emalini njengoko ixabiso lemali liwa ngokukhawuleza.
Eyona fomu igqithisileyo emali. Oku kuxa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kungalawuleki kangangokuba ingcamango yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ayinantsingiselo. Amaxabiso anokwenyuka ngezigidi okanye kwanamawaka ezigidi ekhulwini ngonyaka. Imizekelo eyaziwayo ibandakanya emva kweMfazwe Yehlabathi I eJamani kwaye kutsha nje, iZimbabwe neVenezuela.
Okokugqibela, sinawo Stagflation kwaye Deflation. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso yimeko enqabileyo edibanisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho, kunye nentswela-ngqesho ephezulu. I-Deflation, ngokuchasene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kukwehla kwinqanaba lexabiso lempahla kunye neenkonzo, ngokuqhelekileyo kubangelwa ukuhla kokunikezelwa kwemali okanye ikhredithi.
Uhlobo ngalunye lokunyuka kwamaxabiso luza nemingeni yalo kwaye lufuna ngokwahlukileyo qhinga ukulawula. Ukuqonda ezi ntlobo kubalulekile traders ukujonga imeko yezoqoqosho ngokufanelekileyo.
2. Impembelelo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso
I xabiso, elo xesha loqoqosho elibonakala lilungile, libambe impembelelo ebalulekileyo kwihlabathi lezorhwebo. Yinkosi yonopopi othuleyo, etsala imitya emva kwemiboniso, ephembelela ngobuchule ukuguquguquka nokuhamba kwemarike. Kodwa yenza ntoni kanye kanye? Masibuyise umkhusane sijonge ngakumbi.
Ngendlela elula, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso lizinga apho inqanaba ngokubanzi lamaxabiso eempahla kunye neenkonzo linyuka, kwaye emva koko, amandla okuthenga aye ehla. Kufana nerhafu efihliweyo ecutha ixabiso lemali yakho. Khawufane ucinge ukuba une-bill ye-100 yeedola namhlanje. Ngexesha lonyaka, ukuba isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso sisi-2%, kwaloo -$100 inye iya kuba nexabiso le-$98 ngokwamandla okuthenga.
Iimpembelelo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso kurhwebo zininzi. Komnye, inokuchaphazela i umgangatho wenzala. Iibhanki eziphambili zihlala zizama ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala. Oku kwenza ukuboleka imali kubize kakhulu, kuthothisa umsebenzi wezoqoqosho kuze, kuthobe ukuhla kwamandla emali. Icala lokujika? Inzala ephezulu inokwenza utyalo-mali oluthile, olufana neebhondi, ezinomtsalane ngakumbi, ezinokuthi ziphambukise imali kude ne-stock market.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso nako kunokuchaphazela amazinga otshintshiselwano. Ukuba ilizwe linezinga eliphezulu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso xa lithelekiswa namanye, ixabiso lemali yalo linokwehla. Oku kungenxa yokuba, njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kukhula, amandla okuthenga emali ehla, okwenza kube nzima ukubamba. Oku kunokukhokelela ekwehleni kwezinga lotshintshiselwano.
Imivuzo yenkampani nako ukuchaphazeleka kokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Njengoko iindleko zempahla kunye neenkonzo zinyuka, iinkampani zinokujongana neendleko eziphezulu zokusebenza, ezinokutya inzuzo yazo. Kwelinye icala, basenokukwazi ukudlulisela ezi ndleko kubathengi ngokunyusa amaxabiso abo. Impembelelo kwimivuzo, ngoko ke, ingaba yingxowa edibeneyo.
Ngelixa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokubonakala ngathi ngumkhohlisi kwihlabathi lokurhweba, azisoloko zimbi iindaba. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphakathi kudla ngokubonwa njengophawu loqoqosho olusempilweni nolukhulayo. Kuxa amazinga okwenyuka kwamaxabiso enyuka ngokungalindelekanga okanye ukuya kwi-freefall (deflation) apho traders kufuneka ihlale iqaphile.
Ukuqonda impembelelo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ibalulekile kwi traders. Kunje nokufunda ukufunda umoya xa uhamba ngesikhephe. Awunakuyilawula, kodwa ukuba uyayiqonda, unokuwasebenzisa amandla ayo ukuhambisa utyalo-mali lwakho kwicala elifanelekileyo. Ke, gcina iliso lemozulu kwindawo kwaye uhlengahlengise iiseyile zakho njengoko kufuneka.
2.1. Iziphumo kuQoqosho
Kwithiyetha enkulu kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngumlinganiswa onokuthi adlale iqhawe okanye i-villain, kuxhomekeke ekusebenzeni kwayo. Ukuqonda iziphumo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqoqosho ibalulekile kwi traders, njengoko ichaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ixabiso lemali, ixabiso lempahla kunye neenkonzo, kwaye ekugqibeleni, izigqibo zotyalo-mali.
Okokuqala, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kungaluphawu loqoqosho olusempilweni. Xa amaxabiso enyuka ngokuphakathi, ngokuqhelekileyo kubonisa ukuba uqoqosho luyakhula. Amashishini aziva enokuzithemba ekunyuseni amaxabiso njengoko ebona ukunyuka kwemfuno yeemveliso kunye neenkonzo zawo. Oku kukhuthaza imveliso, nto leyo ekhokelela kwimisebenzi emininzi kunye nemivuzo ephezulu. Le yile icala elihle lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, edla ngokubizwa ngokuba 'kukunyuka kwamaxabiso'.
Nangona kunjalo, xa izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso linyuka, liba namandla atshabalalisayo. Oku kwaziwa ngokuba hyperinflation. Kule meko, ixabiso lemali lehla ngokukhawuleza, kwaye amaxabiso anyuka ngesantya esothusayo. Iindleko zezinto zemihla ngemihla zingakwazi ukufikeleleka kumntu oqhelekileyo, okukhokelela ekunciphiseni kwemigangatho yokuphila. Kusenokubangela ukuba amashishini acuthe imveliso ngenxa yokungaqiniseki, okukhokelela ekuphulukaneni nemisebenzi kunye nokudodobala koqoqosho.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso nako kunefuthe kwi umgangatho wenzala ibekwe ziibhanki ezingoovimba. Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu, iibhanki ezingoovimba zidla ngokunyusa izinga lenzala ukucothisa uqoqosho nokubuyisela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso phantsi kolawulo. Oku kunokwenza ukuboleka imali kubize kakhulu, nto leyo enokuba nefuthe elibi kutyalo-mali nakwinkcitho.
Ngaphaya koko, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokukhokelela kwinto eyaziwa ngokuba yi 'i-bracket creep'. Oku kuxa abantu betyhalelwa kwizibiyeli zerhafu eziphezulu ngenxa yokonyuka kwengeniso yabo yesiqhelo, nangona umvuzo wabo wokwenyani (amandla okuthenga engeniso yabo) esenokuba akatshintshanga.
kuba traders, ukuqonda iziphumo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqoqosho kubalulekile. Ichaphazela ukusebenza kweendidi ezahlukeneyo ze-asethi, ixabiso leemali, kunye nempilo yoqoqosho lwehlabathi. Ngamandla antsonkothileyo, aguqukayo anokuthi mhlawumbi aqhube ukukhula okanye abangele ukudodobala koqoqosho.
2.2. Impembelelo kubaTyali-mali
I xabiso ligama elihlala lithumela ukugodola kubatyali-zimali. Kodwa kutheni? Konke malunga namandla okuthenga. Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka, ixabiso lemali liwa, kwaye impembelelo ingaba yinto ebalulekileyo. Khawufane ucinge ukuba une-100 yeedola namhlanje, kwaye unyaka ukusuka ngoku, ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ixabisa i-95 yeedola kuphela. Leyo yipilisi enzima ukuyiginya nawuphi na umtyali-mali.
Iimbuyekezo zotyalo-mali Akudingi kungqamanisa kuphela kodwa ukodlula ukwenyuka kwamaxabiso ukuze kukhule ngokwenene. Ukuba utyalo-mali lwakho lubuyisela i-2% nje kancinci kodwa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kukwi-3%, uphulukana nomhlaba. Kufana nokubaleka kwi-treadmill ethi chu isantya; kufuneka ubaleke ngokukhawuleza ukuze uhlale endaweni.
Kodwa asiyiyo yonke intshabalalo nobumnyama. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso nako kunokuzisa amathuba. Iiklasi ezithile ze-asethi, ezifana izindlu ezithengiswayo kwaye Iimpahla, ngokuqhelekileyo ziqhuba kakuhle ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ezi zinokuthi zisebenze njengethango, zinceda ukukhusela iphothifoliyo yakho kwimiphumo ephazamisayo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
bond, kwelinye icala, isenokuba likrele elintlangothi-mbini. Ngelixa zibonelela ngengeniso rhoqo, zikwanovelwano kukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ukuba ukulindela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwanda, ixabiso leebhondi linokuncipha, elichaphazela ipotifoliyo yakho. Kubalulekile ukuqonda oku kuguquguqukayo xa utyala imali kwiibhondi.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso nako kunefuthe elithe ngqo umgangatho wenzala. Iibhanki eziphambili zihlala ziphakamisa izinga lenzala ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, nto leyo enokukhokelela kwiindleko eziphezulu zokuboleka. Oku kunokuchaphazela inzuzo yeenkampani, kwaye ngenxa yoko, amaxabiso abo esitokhwe.
Ukuqonda ifuthe lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kutyalo-mali lwakho kubalulekile kwimpumelelo yemali yexesha elide. Akunjalo ngamanani akwiskrini kuphela; imalunga nokuba loo manani aya kukuthenga ngantoni kwixesha elizayo. Imalunga nokugcina kunye nokukhulisa ubutyebi bakho ngokwenyani. Yiyo loo nto wonke umtyali-mali kufuneka abeke iliso elibukhali ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso.
3. Ukulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuRhwebo
Trading xa ujongene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokubonakala ngathi uhamba kwindawo enemigodi. Yimeko yezemali enokutshabalalisa amandla akho okuthenga kwaye ithobe ixabiso lokwenyani lotyalo-mali lwakho. Kodwa, ngezicwangciso ezifanelekileyo kunye nokuqonda okucacileyo, unokujika esi sisongelo esinokuba lithuba.
Esinye isitshixo sokulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ekurhwebeni kukuqonda impembelelo yalo kwiiklasi ezahlukeneyo ze-asethi. Ngokubanzi, esitokisini zikholisa ukusebenza kakuhle ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso njengoko iinkampani zinokuwanyusa amaxabiso azo ukuze zihambelane nokunyuka kweendleko. Ngokwahlukileyo, iibhondi, kunye neentlawulo zazo ezisisigxina, zinokulahlekelwa ixabiso njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka. Yiyo loo nto ukwahlula-hlula ipotfoliyo yakho kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo zee-asethi kunokunceda ukunciphisa imingcipheko eyayanyaniswa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
commodities lolunye udidi lwe-asethi oluhlala luphumelela ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Njengoko amaxabiso ezinto enyuka, ngokunjalo nexabiso lempahla ekrwada esetyenzisiweyo ukuzivelisa. Utyalo-mali kwiimveliso ezifana igolide, i-oyile, okanye iimveliso zezolimo zinokubonelela ngothango ngokuchasene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Nangona kunjalo, ayisiyiyo nje into otyala kuyo, kodwa kwakhona nini kwaye njani. Ukubeka ixesha lakho trades ukuthatha intengisovantage yeendlela zokunyuka kwamaxabiso, nokusetyenziswa Izibambiso ezikhuselweyo kukwenyuka kwamaxabiso ezifana ne-Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) zingamaqhinga asebenzayo. Ezi ziqinisekiso zenzelwe ukunyuka kwexabiso kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukubonelela ngexabiso lokwenene lokubuyisela.
Okokugqibela, ungawajongeli phantsi amandla e ulwazi. Ukuhlala unolwazi malunga neendlela zoqoqosho kunye nokutshintsha komgaqo-nkqubo kunokukunika isiqalo sokulungelelanisa isicwangciso sakho sokurhweba ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngokugcina iliso kwizalathisi ezifana ne-Consumer Price Index (CPI) kunye ne-Producer Price Index (PPI), unokuqikelela ukunyakaza kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokucwangcisa tradengokufanelekileyo.
Khumbula, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso akuyomfuneko ukuba utshaba loyike, kodwa yinto ekufuneka uyiqonde kwaye uyilawule. Ngendlela echanekileyo, unokukhusela ipotifoliyo yakho yorhwebo kwiziphumo ezibi ezinokuthi zibe kho kwaye usebenzise amathuba okufumanayo.
3.1. Utyalo-mali olububungqina bokunyuka kwamaxabiso
Xa ujongene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, i-savvy tradeNdiyazi ukuba utyalo-mali oluthile lunokusebenza njengephenyane elomeleleyo kulwandle lokungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho. Izindlu ezithengiswayo, ngokomzekelo, kudala kugqalwa njengothango oluthembekileyo oluchasene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Njengoko iindleko zokuphila zinyuka, ngokunjalo nexabiso lepropati kunye nengeniso yerenti. Ngokufanayo, commodities njengegolide, isilivere, kunye neoli, enexabiso elingaphakathi, idla ngokunyuka amaxabiso njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka.
Nangona kunjalo, ayilulo lonke utyalo-mali olunobungqina bokunyuka kwamaxabiso oluyimpahla ebonakalayo. Izibambiso eziKhuselweyo kwiNgxowa-mali kaNondyebo (TIPS), umzekelo, ziibhondi ezikhutshwe ngurhulumente ezilungelelanisa ixabiso kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Njengoko i-Consumer Price Index (CPI) iphakama, ngokunjalo ixabiso le-TIPS, ukuqinisekisa ukuba utyalo-mali lwakho luhamba kunye noqoqosho.
Kodwa kuthekani ngemarike yemasheya? Ewe, amacandelo athile anokubonelela ngokhuseleko lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Izabelo kumashishini afana namandla, ukutya, kunye nezinye izinto ezibalulekileyo badla ngokubona amaxabiso abo enyuka ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso, njengoko ixabiso lezinto abazivelisayo lisanda.
Kwaye masingalibali malunga Utyalomali lwangaphandle. Ukutyala imali kuqoqosho apho ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphantsi okanye kuzinzile kunokubonelela ngenqanaba lokhuseleko. Njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka ekhaya, olu tyalo-mali lunokwenyuka ngexabiso xa luguqulelwa kwimali yasekhaya.
Khumbula, nangona kunjalo, ukuba lonke utyalo-mali luza nalo ingozi, kunye nokusebenza kwangaphambili akubonisi iziphumo zexesha elizayo. Kubalulekile ukuba uguqule ipotifoliyo yakho kwaye udibane nomcebisi wezemali ukuqinisekisa ukuba isicwangciso sakho sotyalo-mali sihambelana neenjongo zakho zemali kunye nokunyamezela umngcipheko.
3.2. Amaqhinga okuRhweba ngamaxesha okunyuka kwamaxabiso
Ukuqonda amandla emarike ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso inokuba yinto etshintshayo traders. Isicwangciso sokuqala sijikeleza ukutyala imali kumacandelo aqhuba kakuhle ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ezi ziquka amandla, ukutya, kunye nezinye iimveliso ezithe amaxabiso athanda ukunyuka ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Izibambiso zomvuzo osisigxina, kwelinye icala, bathanda ukwenza kakubi ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Isizathu silula: iimbuyekezo ezisisigxina abazinikezelayo zilahlekelwa yixabiso njengoko iindleko zokuphila zinyuka. Ngoko ke, inyathelo lobulumko liya kuba kuku ukunciphisa ukuvezwa kwezokhuseleko xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka.
Igolide nezinye iintsimbi ezixabisekileyo ngokwembali bezijongwa njengendawo ekhuselekileyo ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ixabiso labo lidla ngokunyuka njengoko abatyali-zimali befuna ukukhusela ubutyebi babo kwimiphumo ephazamisayo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngoko ke, ukwandisa isabelo sakho kwiintsimbi ezixabisekileyo inokuba linyathelo lobulumko ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Izindlu ezithengiswayo lelinye icandelo elithanda ukuhamba kakuhle ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Njengoko ixabiso lezinto zokwakha kunye nomsebenzi linyuka, ngokunjalo nexabiso lezakhiwo ezikhoyo. Ngoko, utyalo mali kwizindlu nomhlaba inokubonelela ngothango ngokuchasene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Iimali zorhwebo inokuba sisicwangciso esisebenzayo ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Iimali zamazwe anamazinga asezantsi okunyuka kwamaxabiso zithande ukuba noxabiso xa zithelekiswa nalawo anamaxabiso aphezulu. Ngoko ke, forex urhwebo inokubonelela ngamathuba okwenza inzuzo ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Gqi beleni, esitokisini ingaba yingxowa edibeneyo ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngelixa ezinye iinkampani zinokusokola ngokunyuka kweendleko, ezinye zingakwazi ukudlulisela ezi ndleko kubathengi bazo. Ngoko ke, ukukhetha iimpahla ezifanelekileyo ibalulekile ngamaxesha okunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Khumbula, ezi zicwangciso azikho ubudenge kwaye ziza nemingcipheko yazo. Ke ngoko, kubalulekile ukwenza olwakho uphando kwaye mhlawumbi ufune iingcebiso zobungcali phambi kokuba wenze izigqibo zotyalo-mali.
4. Indima yeeBhanki eziMbindi ekuLawulweni kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso
Ibhanki ephakathi ngabasemagunyeni kwezemali ababambe iintambo zempilo yezoqoqosho yelizwe. Baqhuba uqoqosho kumanzi ashwabeneyo okunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokusebenzisa izixhobo ezahlukeneyo abanazo. Enye yeendima eziphambili zeebhanki ezingoovimba kukugcina uzinzo lwamaxabiso, nto leyo ehambelana nokulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
I xabiso lizinga apho inqanaba ngokubanzi lamaxabiso eempahla kunye neenkonzo linyuka, kwaye emva koko, amandla okuthenga aye ehla. Ukuba ayilawulwa, inokuphelisa ixabiso lemali, iphazamise uqoqosho, ize ibangele iingxaki zemali. Yilapho i-Central Banks ingena khona ukugcina imini.
Umgangatho wenzala sesinye sezona zixhobo zinamandla kwi-arsenal yeebhanki ezingoovimba. Ngokulungelelanisa la maxabiso, iibhanki eziphambili zinokuchaphazela iindleko zokuboleka, ngaloo ndlela zilawula ukuhamba kwemali kuqoqosho. Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu, iibhanki ezingoovimba zonyusa inzala, nto leyo eyenza ukuboleka imali kubize kakhulu. Oku kuyayityhafisa inkcitho kwaye kuthoba uqoqosho, nto leyo ejonga ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Esinye isixhobo abanaso si imisebenzi yemarike evulekileyo. Oku kubandakanya ukuthenga nokuthengisa izibambiso zikarhulumente kwimarike evulekileyo. Xa iibhanki eziphambili zifuna ukunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, zithengisa izibambiso. Oku kuphelisa imali kuqoqosho njengoko abathengi behlawula ukuthenga ezi zibambiso, ngaloo ndlela benciphisa ukunikezelwa kwemali kunye nokunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Iimfuno zokugcina ezinye iibhanki ze-lever central zinokutsala. Iibhanki kufuneka zibambe ipesenti ethile yeedipozithi zazo njengovimba. Ngokunyusa lo mlinganiselo wovimba, iibhanki ezingoovimba zinokunciphisa isixa seebhanki zemali ezinokuboleka, ngaloo ndlela zinciphisa unikezelo lwemali nokulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ngaphaya koko, iibhanki ezingoovimba nazo ziyasebenzisa isikhokelo phambili ukuphembelela ulindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngokunxibelelana ngezicwangciso zabo zexesha elizayo kunye nezicwangciso zabo, banokubumba ukulindela kweemarike kunye nokuziphatha, okunokunceda ngokungathanga ngqo ukulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Khumbula, indima yeebhanki ezingoovimba ekulawuleni ukunyuka kwamaxabiso sisenzo esibuthathaka sokulinganisa. Bamele banyathele umgca ophakathi kokuthintela uqoqosho ekutshiseni ngokugqithisileyo kunye nokuphepha ukuhla. Kufana nokuhamba kwintambo eqinileyo, apho nokuba ukuphosakela okuncinci kunokuba nemiphumo ebalulekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, ngoluhlu lwezixhobo kunye namaqhinga, iibhanki ezingoovimba zibonakalise ukuba zingabagcini bamasango abasebenzayo bozinzo lwezoqoqosho.
4.1. Imigaqo-nkqubo yezeMali
Imigaqo-nkqubo yezemali dlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu kwiintshukumo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Le migaqo-nkqubo, isetwe yibhanki enguvimba njenge Federal Reserve e-US, zizixhobo eziphambili zokulawula unikezelo lwemali, ezinefuthe kumazinga enzala kunye nokukhula koqoqosho ngokubanzi.
Ukuqonda iindidi ezimbini eziphambili zemigaqo-nkqubo yezemali kubalulekile. Imigaqo-nkqubo yokwandiswa kwemali ziphunyezwa ukuvuselela uqoqosho. Ibhanki enguvimba yehlisa inzala, yenza ukuboleka imali kungabizi mali ininzi. Oku kukhuthaza inkcitho notyalo-mali, nto leyo enokukhokelela kuhlumo loqoqosho. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba uqoqosho lugqithisa, lunokubangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Kwelinye icala, imigaqo-nkqubo yezemali ephantsi zijolise ekucutheni uqoqosho xa lukhula ngokukhawuleza. Ibhanki enguvimba yonyusa inzala, yenza ukuboleka imali kubize kakhulu. Oku kuyayityhafisa inkcitho notyalo-mali, kuthomalalisa uqoqosho kunye nokwehla kokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Sisenzo esibuthathaka sokulinganisa. Ukuba ibhanki ephakathi ibeka inzala ephantsi kakhulu ixesha elide, kunokukhokelela kwimeko ebizwa ngokuba yi hyperinflation, apho amaxabiso enyuka ngokukhawuleza njengoko ukunikezelwa kwemali kukhula ngaphandle kokubopha. Ngokuchasene noko, ukuba amazinga enzala abekwe phezulu kakhulu, oko kunokudodobalisa ukukhula koqoqosho, okukhokelela ekudodobaleni koqoqosho.
Ngaphaya koko, ibhanki enguvimba nayo iyaqesha imisebenzi yemarike evulekileyo β ukuthenga nokuthengisa iibhondi zikarhulumente β ukulawula unikezelo lwemali. Xa ibhanki ephakathi ithenga iibhondi, inyusa unikezelo lwemali, olunokukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso. Xa ithengisa iibhondi, inciphisa unikezelo lwemali, enokuthi ithintele ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ukunciphisa ubuninzi sesinye isixhobo esisetyenziswa ziibhanki ezingoovimba, ngakumbi ngamaxesha obunzima bezoqoqosho. Oku kubandakanya ibhanki enguvimba yokuthenga izixa ezikhulu zempahla yezemali, njengebhondi zikarhulumente, kwiibhanki zorhwebo nakwamanye amaziko emali, ngokwenjenjalo inyusa unikezelo lwemali kunye nokuthoba inzala ukuvuselela uqoqosho.
Kwilizwe lorhwebo, ukuqonda iimpembelelo ezinokuthi zibe kho zale migaqo-nkqubo yezemali ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso kubalulekile. Zinokuchaphazela yonke into ukusuka kwixabiso lemali yelizwe ukuya ekusebenzeni kwemarike yemasheya. Ngaloo ndlela, ukuhlala unolwazi malunga nemigaqo-nkqubo yemali yebhanki ephakathi kunokubonelela tradekunye nokuqonda okuxabisekileyo, ukubanceda ukuba benze izigqibo ezizizo kwaye basebenzise iintsingiselo zemarike.
4.2. Ukujoliswa kwexabiso lentengo
Ukujolisa kwixabiso lentengo sisicwangciso somgaqo-mali osetyenziswa ziibhanki ezingoovimba ukulawula nokulawula izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqoqosho. Kufana nomphathi wenqanawa obeka ikhosi, ibhanki enguvimba iqhubela uqoqosho kwiqondo elithile lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Lo mlinganiselo ukholisa ukusetwa malunga ne-2%, inqanaba elithathwa njengeliluncedo kuzinzo loqoqosho.
Ibhanki enguvimba isebenzisa izixhobo ezahlukeneyo ukuphumeza oku kujoliswe kuko, kubandakanywa ukulungelelanisa inzala kunye nokulawula unikezelo lwemali. Xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphezulu kakhulu, ibhanki inokunyusa inzala ukuze ithintele inkcitho kunye nokucotha kokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngokuchaseneyo, xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphantsi kakhulu, isenokuthoba inzala ukuze ikhuthaze inkcitho ize inyuse ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Makhe singene nzulu kwindlela esebenza ngayo le nto. Khawufane ucinge ukuba uyibhanki enguvimba. Ukuba ubona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kukhwela ngaphezulu kwenjongo yakho, unokucinga, "Ixesha lokucofa iziqhoboshi." Unganyusa amazinga enzala, ukwenza ukuboleka kubize kakhulu. Oku kuyawatyhafisa amashishini kunye nabantu ngabanye ekuthatheni iimali-mboleko, ukunciphisa isixa semali ehamba kuqoqosho kwaye, emva koko, ukuthoba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Kwelinye icala, ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyehla ngaphantsi kwenjongo yakho, ungafuna ukubetha irhasi. Ungathoba inzala, wenze ukuboleka kungabizi kakhulu. Oku kukhuthaza amashishini kunye nabantu ukuba bathathe iimali-mboleko, ukwandisa inani lemali ehamba kuqoqosho kwaye, emva koko, ukunyusa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ukujolisa kwixabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso akukho ngaphandle kwemingeni yakho, nangona kunjalo. Ifuna uqikelelo oluchanekileyo kwaye ungenelelo olungexesha yibhanki enguvimba. Ukuba ibhanki iyalijonga ngendlela engeyiyo isikhokelo soqoqosho okanye iyacotha ukwenza okuthile, inokuphosa ithagethi yayo, nto leyo ekhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso kakhulu okanye okuncinci kakhulu. Zombini ezi meko zinokuba neziphumo ezibi kuqoqosho.
Ngaphandle kwale mingeni, amazwe amaninzi, kubandakanywa i-UK, iCanada, ne-Australia, asebenzisa ujoliso lwexabiso lentengo njengeyona ndlela iphambili yomgaqo-nkqubo wemali. Bakholelwa ukuba ngokugcina izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso elizinzileyo nelinokuxelwa kwangaphambili, banokukhuthaza ukukhula koqoqosho nokuzinza. Ngale ndlela, ukujolisa kwixabiso lentengo kusebenza njengesixhobo esiphambili sokuhamba kulwandle olukhulu noluhlala lunesiphithiphithi kuqoqosho lwehlabathi.
4.3. Indima yoNxibelelwano lweBhanki eyiNtloko
Xa kuziwa kwixabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, indima yeBhanki Ephakathi ayinakugqithiswa. IBhanki ePhakamileyo, eneneni, yi-puppet master, itsala imitya yezoqoqosho ukuqinisekisa ukulingana phakathi kokukhula nokuzinza. Esinye sezixhobo zayo ezibaluleke kakhulu kwesi senzo sokulinganisa lunxibelelwano.
Unxibelelwano oluvela kwiBhanki eyiCentral ngumba obalulekileyo ekulawuleni okulindelweyo kwimarike kunye nesikhokelo soqoqosho. Kungenxa yeli jelo apho ibhanki idlulisela izigqibo zayo zomgaqo-mali, iimbono zomgaqo-nkqubo wexesha elizayo, kunye novavanyo lwayo lwemeko yezoqoqosho. Olu lwazi lubalulekile kwi traders, njengoko ibonelela ngokuqonda kwiintshukumo zentengiso ezinokubakho kwaye ibancede benze izigqibo ezizizo.
Isicwangciso sonxibelelwano seBhanki ePhakamileyo siye savela kule minyaka idlulileyo. Ngokwemveli, babesaziwa ngolwimi lwabo oluntsonkothileyo kunye neengxelo ezingacacanga. Nangona kunjalo, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kukho utshintsho olubhekiselele ukucaca okukhulu kunye nokucaca. Olu tshintsho ubukhulu becala lubangelwa kukuqaphela ukuba unxibelelwano olucacileyo noluqikelelwayo lunokunceda ukuzinzisa iimarike nokuphucula ukusebenza komgaqo-nkqubo wemali.
Ngokomzekelo, ukuba iBhanki ePhakathi ibonisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala kwixesha elizayo, traders banokuyilindela le ntshukumo kwaye bahlengahlengise izicwangciso zabo ngokufanelekileyo. Basenokuthengisa iibhondi, belindele ukuba amaxabiso abo ehle xa inzala inyuka, okanye banokuthenga amasheya, beqikelela ukuba iinkampani ziya kuxhamla ekukhuleni koqoqosho oludla ngokuhamba nenzala ephezulu.
Nangona kunjalo, unxibelelwano lweBhanki Ephakathi alusoloko luthe ngqo. Ngokufuthi kubandakanya isenzo esiethe-ethe sokulungelelanisa. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ibhanki kufuneka ibonelele ngolwazi olwaneleyo lokukhokela ukulindela kweemarike. Kwelinye icala, kufuneka inqande ukudala ukuphakuzela okanye uchulumanco olugqithisileyo olunokuthi ludodobalise urhwebo.
Ngoko ke, kubalulekile ukuba traders ukuba anikele ingqalelo kuphela kunxibelelwano lweBhanki Embindini kodwa baqonde iinuances kunye neziphumo zale miyalezo. Oku kuqonda kunokubonelela ngomda wokukhuphisana kwaye kuncede ukuba bahambe kwihlabathi elinzima lokurhweba kwimeko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Khumbula, kwihlabathi lezorhwebo, ulwazi ngamandla. Kwaye xa kuziwa ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso, unxibelelwano lweBhanki ePhakathi lungomnye wemithombo enamandla kakhulu yolwazi onokuthi ube nayo.
